More than two weeks after the September 26 elections for germany's Bundestag came to an end, the post-Merkel era of political wrangling has only just begun. The election presented an unprecedented political fragmentation, with the black and red grand coalition government that lasted for 12 years before and after Merkel's term, and Germany is about to enter the era of the first three-party alliance after World War II, whether it is the SPD, which was promoted to the largest party by a slight margin (25.7%) or the Coalition party that followed (24.1%), must seek the support of two smaller parties to complete the formation of the cabinet. As a result, the Greens, which received 14.8 percent of the vote, and the Liberal Democratic Party,11.5 percent of the votes, became the kingmakers of the big parties, and their every move would play a decisive role in the current battle for the formation of the cabinet.
Among them, the Greens, known for their progressive stance on environmental issues and climate change, are likely to be the biggest winners in this election. In April, the Greens overpowered Merkel's Coalition party with nearly 30 percent of the polls, making The Greens candidate Annalena Baerbock the dark horse of public opinion, once on track to win the second female federal chancellor. Although support slipped rapidly after two months, september 26 still set a new record of the highest number of votes in the Greens' previous general elections, and the young party, which has been in the opposition for 16 years, is likely to return to federal politics through cabinet negotiations and completely rewrite Germany's climate and environmental agenda.
The different cabinet formation schemes after the 2021 German Bundestag elections and the representation of different political parties, among which analysts believe that the most likely are the "Traffic Light" Coalition and the "Jamaica" Coalition / Clean Energy Wire
Today's Greens are no longer the same as the hairy opposition party of those days.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="5" > from opposition resistance to ruling temples</h1>
The German Green Party originated from the grassroots protest movement that surged in the 1960s and 1970s, and various civilian forces, including left-wing students, anti-nuclear activists, and pacifists, gathered together because of nuclear power construction, NATO's military expansion, etc., and officially established the Die Grünen in 1980. The Greens, who called themselves the "Anti-Parteien-Partei" (Anti-Parteien-Partei) at the time, retained a radical concept of street protests and deliberately distanced themselves from parliamentary politics in 1982 in 6 of West Germany's 11 states and 5.6 percent of the vote in the 1983 bundestag elections.
The early Greens thus left a unique, naïve and romantic image in German politics, in stark contrast to old-school politicians in suits and shoes.
In 1983, Marieluise Beck, a green party member who had just entered the Bundestag, congratulated the newly elected West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl by replacing traditional flowers with pine branches, intending to draw the prime minister's attention to the loss of forests. In 1985, the Greens' first state dominance made the Greens leader Joschka Fischer the Minister of Environmental Protection of Hesse, but he wore casual clothes and a pair of eye-catching sneakers when he was sworn in, which attracted public attention for a while, and became a classic portrayal of the Grassroots temperament of the Greens.
In 1983, Green Party MP Mary Ruth Beck presented pine branches/DW to West German Chancellor Kohl
In 1985, Joschka Fischer was sworn in as Minister of Environmental Protection of hesse in civilian clothes and sneakers
But as the Greens grew in German politics, there was a divergence between Fundis and Realos in the mid-1980s. The former wants the Greens to remain outsiders, ideologically avant-garde and radical, while the latter is willing to make concessions for greater political influence, especially in partnership with non-traditional left-wing parties for opportunities for coalition rule. This confrontation between pragmatism and principle also reflects the core question that runs through the green party on the road to political maturity: as a single-issue party transformed from a social movement, how can the green party achieve its original environmental ideals in the intricate realpolitik world?
Since the 1990s, the cruelty and ruthlessness of realpolitik have made the Greens gradually realize the importance of pragmatism, constantly learning from setbacks and shocks, and adopting more flexible political strategies.
In the first federal elections after German reunification in 1990, the West German Greens insisted that "everybody talks about Germany, only I say the weather" ("Alle redden von Deutschland." Wir redden vom Wetter" campaign, which eventually lost all seats in the Bundestag due to defiance of public opinion. This tragic Waterloo allowed the realists to gain the upper hand in the party and began to adjust the political strategy of the Greens, and the West German Greens merged with the East German Greens and the Alliance 90 to form today's German Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), and the 1991 Party Congress officially ended the anti-parliamentary and anti-party stance, actively embraced representative democracy, and transformed into an "ecological reform party" (ökologischen Reformpartei).
After several years of obscurity, the Greens not only regained 41 seats in the Federal Parliament in 1994, but also opened a seven-year-long red-green coalition government with the SPD in 1998, winning three ministerial positions, and finally truly realized the cessation and compromise that the ruling party had to endure.
In 1999, NATO's military operations in Kosovo sparked a fierce debate in Germany, and Fisher, a member of the Green Party who wore sneakers, voted in favor of the newly appointed foreign minister, subverting the Green Party's historical anti-war and non-violent purposes, which later became a landmark event in the process of green party building and institutionalization.
At this point, the tempering of realpolitik has gradually learned to let go of the former idealists, whether on the issue of postponing the withdrawal of nuclear weapons, or later in 2001, the Greens have chosen to compromise when necessary, as Fisher told opponents in the party, "If you want to enter the government, you have to accept the world as it is." "
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="48" > the "radical realism" of today's Greens</h1>
However, the suddenly ahead of schedule in 2005 finally brought the Red-Green Alliance between the Greens and the SPD to collapse, ushering in the Merkel era as we know it, and the Greens began their 16-year long career as opposition parties.
A year later, the Greens put forward a political vision of "radical realism" (radical realism) in order to better integrate orthodox and realist views, maintaining the hard core of avant-garde environmental ideas on the one hand, and carefully considering the logic of realpolitik on the other.
This new line of action has laid the foundation for a new round of change of course within the Party, and the prosperity and vigor of the Green Party in this federal parliamentary election is also the result of exploration and innovation in the past many years.
After losing the opportunity to govern in the Bundestag, the Greens began to explore various plans for the formation of a cabinet in the federal states, and fully opened its imagination to potential allies. In 2011, for example, the Greens joined forces with the SPD to win the Baden-Württemberg state parliament, which had been controlled by the CDU for 59 years, creating the first federal governor, Winfried Kretschmann, to be appointed by a Member of the Green Party. In the 2014 Hesse parliamentary elections, the Greens, in turn, worked with the CDU to form the Black-Green Alliance, leading Hesse to unprecedented greenery.
In 2011, Winfried Kleichmann became the first Green Party governor to chair the Baden-Württemberg Politics / Baden-Württemberg State Government website
As a result, the Greens have maintained a relatively open mind to the post-election cabinet negotiations, and both the "Traffic Light" group and the "Jamaica" coalition have already had similar practices at the local level and in the federal states.
Also changing rapidly over the past few years is the Greens' governance strategy. Because of their emphasis on environmental protection and ecological balance, the Greens are often known for advocating a variety of government bans. In 2013, the Greens used the weekly "fasting day" in public canteens as a campaign platform, which was immediately met with popular resistance and ridicule from competitors. Today, the Greens are placing increasing emphasis on the spontaneous role of markets and working with commercial companies on environmental and climate issues, with Belbork meeting almost weekly with business leaders and financiers during the campaign to find net-zero solutions acceptable to the business community.
Joe Kaeser, former president of Siemens, appeared at the Green Party meeting with Annalena Belbok at the Greens meeting/network
Not only that, but the Greens are also fully aware of the importance of linking environmental protection to other socio-economic issues.
Although the Green Party's basic formula is the more educated young people and women in the western part of Germany, in recent years it has worked hard to advance into the rural areas, and has also actively mobilized in the former East Germany region where right-wing populist forces are on the rise, using the political language of courage and hope to counter the fears instigated by the AfD. Social issues such as raising the minimum wage and increasing housing security also feature prominently in the Greens' campaign platform this year.
The leadership of the Green Party has also undergone a key iteration in recent years. After losing the Bundestag in 2005, the Greens were mired in intra-party strife, but the 2018 Party Congress reversed the tradition of choosing one between Orthodox and Realist in previous years and selected two realist members to serve as the greens' double chairman, the belbork and Robert Habeck we see today.
Belbok, a young female contender in her 40s, lacks experience in governing but is no less than a leader in reaching business representatives and conservative politicians. Hubbeck has held key positions in several state governments and has published several political books arguing the need to transcend the traditional political spectrum. The personnel arrangement itself sends a strong signal that the Greens seek a moderate and moderate line, while inner-party unity has reached unprecedented heights, and the Greens have now learned to keep their disputes internal and present a stronger public image before voters.
The current green party double chair Annalena Belbork with Robert Hubbeck / Network
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="49" > the weakness of traditional political parties and the awakening of climate awareness</h1>
In addition to its maturing political style and campaign strategy, the Green Party's emergence reflects the profound changes in German society and politics in recent years.
Since the end of World War II, the Union and Social Democrats, which have dominated German politics for nearly three-quarters of a century, are in decline. Although Merkel has brought the "golden decade" of economic recovery and has led Germany through the financial crisis, refugee crisis and the new crown epidemic with steady and old political experience, voters have become tired, and it is difficult for the Coalition party to launch a more attractive political narrative after German reunification.
Changes in the number of parties in the German Bundestag, the proportion of Green Party seats is rising / Bloomberg
The SPD, which represents a traditional center-left position, faces a serious identity crisis. As a result of the 2003 "Hartz IV" reforms that slashed social welfare, and later long-term cooperation with the Union Party in the Black-Red Coalition Big Government, the SPD's ideological positioning of itself became increasingly blurred. With the decline of traditional trade unions and the replacement of classic left-right political rivalries with climate, refugees, etc., this once glorious left-wing party is often stretched thin in response to an increasingly pluralistic German society, unable to achieve broad social mobilization.
It was in this context that the Greens became a clear stream in German politics. It responds forcefully to major issues of concern to the new generation of voters, such as climate change, ethnic minorities, and social inclusion, and thus becomes one of the most popular political parties among young people in Germany.
With a percentage of votes for all age groups, the Greens attract a large number of young voters/FT
At the same time, environmental and climate issues are becoming increasingly popular. Long before this summer's European floods, the 2018 summer heat wave and drought were already a wake-up call for German voters. The monthly or even annual Fridays for Future climate protests have become the weekly norm on the streets of Berlin, and more and more people are beginning to face up to the urgency of climate change and the clean energy transition.
German voters are increasingly concerned about the clean energy transition and climate change / Clean Energy Wire
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="50" > traffic light coalition seems a foregone conclusion, how can the Greens achieve their climate goals? </h1>
Today, with the green wave sweeping across the continent, various Green Parties have entered the ruling government in Austria, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg and Sweden, and the German Greens have clearly become the biggest potential stock of European green politics in this election.
At present, the "Traffic Light" coalition of the Spun Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party has seized the opportunity. After tentative talks, on Oct. 15, spdrawl prime ministerial candidate Olaf Scholz, Green Leader Belbok and Liberal Democratic Party Chairman Christian Lindner agreed on a 12-page roadmap for negotiations. Subsequently, the three parties also voted in favor of entering the formal cabinet negotiations through the procedures within the party.
But the establishment of this coalition government means that the Greens will once again appropriately compromise and make concessions for realpolitik, and there are still major differences between the three parties on economic and climate policy.
The economic underpinnings of the Greens' climate policy is an ambitious fiscal plan to increase public spending by €50 billion a year as investments in green infrastructure, energy transition and digitalization. But this requires breaking the Merkel-era "black zero" approach of strict budget balance and loosening the country's "debt brakes", which is bound to provoke opposition from the Liberal Democratic Party, which has always believed in small government and market freedom. Judging from the latest negotiating roadmap, large-scale public and private investment will be carried out on the premise that the "debt brake" is retained and there is no tax increase, but the specific operation plan is not yet clear.
In addition, climate change has naturally become the focus of controversy in negotiations. While the Greens advocate a rapid 20-year climate-neutral target and a full replacement of fossil fuels and nuclear energy from renewables by 2035, the SPD has set two targets for 2045 and 2040, respectively, while the LDP is pinning its hopes on market forces and leaning toward a slower transition process, planning to reach climate neutrality by 2050 while opposing the massive expansion of renewables.
The roadmap shows that the three parties have reached considerable consensus on climate issues. The "Traffic Light" coalition government plans to complete the coal withdrawal in 2030, achieve climate neutrality in 2045, build rooftop photovoltaics on a large scale, and make Germany a "low-carbon industrial country". But in return, the Greens have had to abandon the idea of a 130 km/h speed limit on highways and remain divided with the LDP over whether fuel vehicles should be banned in the medium term.
After 40 years of ups and downs and growth, the German Green Party has swept away the innocence and innocence of the past. If the Greens are able to enter the first post-Merkel coalition government, it is expected to push Europe's largest economies to adopt a faster climate and energy transition, with far-reaching implications for global environmental politics and climate governance. (Editor-in-Charge / Zhang Xibei)
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