Everyone wants to maximize their own self-interest, but in the absence of sufficient information, people are not at all clear about what is our interest (which can be regarded as a "blessing") and what is a loss (which can be regarded as a "curse").
Text: Zhao Xiao (Independent Economist) Responsible Editor: Li Jing
Life economics regards life as the most important resource, focusing on maximizing the value of life, and of course paying attention to the misfortune of human life and death. Life or death aside, let's talk about "bad luck" today.
Lao Tzu famously said, "Blessings and misfortunes depend on, and misfortunes and blessings lie down." It means that misfortune and happiness cause and effect each other, and transform each other. Chinese idioms and allusions such as "bitter and sweet", "no pole Tai Lai", "Sai Weng lost his horse and knew that it was not blessed", "Qing belt full of dry food", "thinking of danger in peace" and so on, all reflect the thought of Lao Tzu.
Among them, the classic story of "Sai Weng lost his horse, and he knew that it was not a blessing" most vividly characterized the idea of "misfortune and blessing transformation". It is said that near the border plug, there lived an old man. Once, a horse of the old man's family ran into the place of the Hu people for no reason. The neighbor comforted him, and he said quietly, "Isn't this a blessing?" Sure enough, a few months later, the lost horse suddenly came home and brought a Hu man's horse. When the neighbors learned about it, they all came to congratulate them. The old man was indifferent and said frankly, "Isn't such a thing a disaster?" "One day, the old man's son rode on a horse to practice riding and shooting, and as a result, he broke his thigh. Neighbors came to offer their condolences. The old man did not move, and said indifferently: "Isn't this a blessing?" "A year later, the Hu people marched across the border, and the able-bodied men were conscripted into the army, killing and injuring countless people. Only the old man's son was saved from conscription because of his disability and was able to save his life.
Chinese sighed from this story: blessings can be transformed into misfortunes, and misfortunes can be changed into blessings; this change is unfathomable, and no one can predict it!
From the perspective of life economics, how should we view such a philosophy of life and a life story?
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The imbalance and incomplete information make it impossible to distinguish between good and bad
First, economics pursues the optimal state of "general equilibrium", but reality is full of "non-equilibrium", especially for life, it can be said that it is often "family affairs, state affairs, world affairs, and everything is entangled". Sometimes, a little turmoil is enough to throw a person's life, life, and business (career) out of balance.
Especially in the 2020 new crown virus invasion, people can clearly see that a grain of dust of the times falls on a person, just like a mountain. In the story of Seion's loss of horses, the horse suddenly lost and suddenly returned, the son fell disabled, the country suffered foreign invasion, the son was exempted from conscription, and the occurrence of one incident after another changed the life state of Saion, which at least looked very "balanced" in the eyes of the neighbors, into a "non-equilibrium" state, but miraculously found a new equilibrium in the next thing.
Second, economics emphasizes the essence of human nature is the pursuit of self-interest maximization, while economics fully agrees that people are not completely rational and completely informed. That's a big problem! Everyone wants to maximize their own self-interest, but in the absence of sufficient information, people are not at all clear about what is our interest (which can be regarded as a "blessing") and what is a loss (which can be regarded as a "curse"),; of course, people have no idea what the optimal way to maximize their own interests is, so people cannot actually distinguish whether it is a desperate effort or a resignation, and people cannot really understand whether it is better to live or to die. Chinese prefer the saying that "it is better to die than to live", but socrates, the "wisest man" of ancient Greece, did not think so at all. He pointed out that if he really went to heaven after death or if death was nothing more than a silent and painless sleep, no one could say whether it was better to live or die, so he preferred to die.
2
The solution to the dilemma of misfortune and blessing: believe in meaning
Third, what should people do in the dilemma of incomplete rationality and incomplete information on the one hand, but on the other hand, they want to maximize their own interests or welfare? There is only one way to introduce faith and faith. That is to say, people are not because of rational confirmation, but because of inner conviction, believing that what they do is meaningful or meaningless, valuable or worthless, and realizing the maximization of the value of their own life in the pursuit of their own set meaning and value - this maximization can be both the maximization of interests and the maximization of meaning; of course, people can also make trade-offs between interests and meaning or make optimal allocations, and the noble can sacrifice interests in exchange for meaning; of course, the opposite. The despicable person can choose to sacrifice meaning or even conscience (that is, selling his soul) in exchange for profit.
Fourth, when people realize their own limitations (rationality, information), people's evaluation of disasters (costs) and blessings (benefits) will become less confident, and therefore less sensitive, and even refuse to subjectively determine what is a blessing, and instead give birth to a resigned and natural outlook on life, just like Saion and Lao Zhuang.
A recent example is U.S. President Donald Trump. 50 years ago, someone asked him what to do if your business went bankrupt, and he said, "Then I'll run for president." "His business really went bankrupt several times, and he really went for president and got elected when almost all the mainstream media and elites were not optimistic." After becoming president, he built the strongest economy in the United States in 50 years, pushed the stock market to new highs, and waited for a smooth re-election. He did not think that a once-in-a-century epidemic would make all this in vain, and his election was in a hurry; and what he did not expect was that "October Surprise", he actually hit the big move, contracted the new crown virus, and became the first black swan to fly out in October 2020. Just when the enemy was gloating, he miraculously announced his discharge three days after his illness, landed in the White House in a helicopter, and as relapsed with Trump, as the first sentence that Reagan was awakened by the assassination, he loudly announced to the world "I'm back!", and the election was also darkened, fox host Hilton said that his recovery would be "a powerful symbol of American recovery" "defeat the virus, restore the economy, recover with Trump, or relapse with Biden"...
It really is: "Woe, where blessings depend; blessings, misfortunes." ”
"When a man has a calamity, he is afraid of it; if he is afraid of it, he acts straight; if he acts straight, he thinks well; if he thinks well, he gets things right." If the line is straight, there is no harm; if there is no harm, it will be exhausted. If you get it right, you will succeed. All the years, then the whole life. If you succeed, you will be rich and expensive. The whole life is a blessing, and the blessing is based on misfortune, so it is said: 'Where misfortune and blessing depend', with its success also. ”
"If a man is blessed, he will be rich; if he is rich, he will be well clothed and fed; if he is rich, he will be proud; if he is proud, he will act evil and abandon reason." If you do evil deeds, you will die; if you abandon reason, you will not succeed. There is a difficulty of death in the husband, and there is no name for success outside, and there is a great calamity, and the calamity is born of the blessed, so it is said: 'Where the blessings and misfortunes lie'. ”
Source: Chinese and foreign management