On September 11-12, 2021, the "Baichuan Forum - 2021 Seminar on Changes and Assessments of China's External Environment" was held in Qianhai, Shenzhen. The seminar was hosted by the Institute for Advanced Study in Global and Contemporary China and the Qianhai Institute for International Affairs, University of Chinese, Hong Kong, Shenzhen. The forum invited well-known scholars and experts in various fields from all over the country to jointly discuss and evaluate the profound changes in the current international environment, hoping to provide corresponding theoretical and practical basis for China's policy formulation through this conference.
Professor Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the Institute for Advanced Study in Global and Contemporary China and Dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs at the University of Chinese, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, delivered an opening speech. Zheng Yongnian said that in recent years, the international political situation has changed, the International Liberal Economic Order dominated by the West is facing various challenges, and the direction of globalization has begun to change; and the structural problems in the internal economy of Western countries have triggered a crisis in national governance, making populism impact the traditional political order of the West; at the same time, the continuation of the new crown epidemic has caused huge difficulties to the world, accelerating the evolution of the change. For China, we are facing a major change unprecedented in a century, how to understand and see the changes in the world, and make a comprehensive and systematic assessment of China's external environment has become an urgent matter.
Zheng Yongnian explained that the "Baichuan Forum" is named after "Hai Na Bai Chuan, There is tolerance is great", that is, it is hoped that all kinds of ideas and methods, whether foreign, modern, or local, ancient, can have a place here, through brainstorming, ideological confrontation, accumulation and flow, slowly here to nurture a sea of wisdom that condenses the wisdom of all parties. It is hoped that this opportunity will unite the ideological forces at home and abroad to make a comprehensive and systematic assessment of China's external environment, and through brainstorming, summarize a set of more scientific international environmental assessment methods, and contribute to the development of China's diplomatic thinking and international relations theory.
Professor Zheng Yongnian delivered an opening speech
Yang Jiemian, director and researcher of the Academic Committee of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, delivered a speech on the theme of "The Accelerated Evolution of the World Pattern and China's Response". Yang Jiemian believes that if we want to see the world situation clearly, we must first base ourselves on reality and realize that the world pattern has its own regularity and stages, and that gradual progress is the norm and leapfrog development is the exception. If we want to draw a rough outline of the future, we must first solve practical problems and construct a new type of international relations, and integrate it with a community with a shared future for mankind. The inheritance of history and the innovation of the times coexist, but also complement and promote each other.
Yang Jiemian deeply analyzed the current international situation and the future Pattern of China from four aspects. He believes that, first, if we want to reconstruct and interpret what the world pattern is, we must first clarify the development trajectory of the international pattern since the advent of capitalism; second, the study of ideological theory is indispensable, in the face of ideas that advance with the times and the ideological trends that linger from time to time, ideas can only mature in the process of continuous exchange, convergence and confrontation; third, there must be global strategic thinking and thinking mode, and China needs to formulate short-term, medium-term and long-term strategic goals when dealing with changes in the world pattern. Fourth, it is necessary to conduct strategic research on the system and mechanism, sort out and examine the existing system and mechanism, and put forward a plan suitable for China's development on the basis of long-term goals and phased tasks. Finally, he pointed out that the road to reconstructing the world pattern is still "a long road, the road is long, and I will seek from top to bottom", and we must jointly build a more just and reasonable global governance system with the international community in the spirit of moving mountains with the spirit of foolishness and moving mountains.
Dr. Yeung Kit Mian gave a keynote speech
On the first day of the conference, in-depth discussions and exchanges were held on four important topics: "International Order in Disorder", "Major Country Relations in Flux", "China and East Asia", and "China and South Asia and the Middle East".
The first topic of the forum, "International Order in Disorder", was chaired by Professor Hao Yufan, Associate Dean of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Global and Contemporary China, University of Chinese, Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Professor Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, shared his views on "The Impact of the Decline of US Hegemony on the International Order"; Professor Dawei, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic and Security Studies of Tsinghua University, analyzed the disorderly status of the world order; and Professor Zhu Feng, Dean of the Institute of International Relations of Nanjing University, discussed the evolution of Sino-US relations from the perspective of the international strategic pattern under the impact of the epidemic.
The second topic, "Great Power Relations in Flux", was chaired by Professor Soong Hsin-ning of the Institute for Advanced Study in Global and Contemporary China, University of hong Kong Chinese, Shenzhen. Professor Feng Zhongping, director of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that if a new Cold War is to be avoided, the influence and role of this european force are extremely critical; Professor Zhang Feng, executive dean of the Institute of Public Policy Research of South China University of Technology, discusses the structural trend of major country relations at present and in the future from the perspective of the concept of "deep pluralism"; Associate Professor Zhang Xin of the Institute of International Relations and Regional Development of East China Normal University proposed that in the relationship between major powers, in addition to the trilateral relations between China and the United States and Europe, It is also important to study the pattern of relations between Russia and China.
The third topic, which focuses on the relationship between China and East Asia, was chaired by Dr. Hai Guo of the Institute of Public Policy Studies, South China University of Technology. Associate Professor Ling Shengli, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, conducted an in-depth analysis of the situation on the Korean Peninsula; Associate Professor Yi Yuan of the School of International Relations and the Nanyang Research Institute of Xiamen University focused on china-Southeast Asia "Belt and Road" cooperation and challenges under the great changes; and Dr. Xue Chen of the Institute of Strategy of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies re-examined the applicability of the marginal zone theory to explain China's peripheral security.
The fourth topic, which focuses on China's relations with South Asia and the Middle East, was chaired by Lu Yang, a resident researcher at Tsinghua University's Belt and Road Institute for Strategic Studies and the Carnegie Endowment for Global Policy at Tsinghua University. Yin Gang, a researcher at the Institute of West Asia and North Africa of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the evolution of the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East from the perspective of humanities and history; Lin Minwang, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University, assessed the challenges posed to China by the changes in the strategic environment in South Asia; and Professor Xiang Hong of the Institute of Central Asia of Lanzhou University made inferences about how the United States would adjust its Central Asia policy after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
The second day of the conference focused on topics such as "China and Global Governance", "Geoeconomics", "National Security and Crisis Management", and "Laws and Rules".
"China and Global Governance", the fifth topic of the forum, was chaired by Yuan Randong, Institute for Advanced Studies in Global and Contemporary China and Qianhai Institute of International Affairs, University of Chinese, Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Sun Xiansheng, former Secretary-General of the International Energy Forum, sorted out the new characteristics of global energy governance under the new situation and new changes; Tang Wei, associate researcher of the Institute of International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the impact of different systems on epidemic control; and Liu Tianyang, associate researcher of the School of Politics and Public Administration of Wuhan University, pointed out the extremeization problem in the era of false truth. Professor Guan Tianru of the School of Journalism and Communication of Wuhan University commented on the discussion.
The sixth topic revolves around "geoeconomics", which was moderated by Duan Xiaolin, Institute for Global and Contemporary China Advanced Study, University of Hong Kong Chinese Shenzhen. Professor Wang Yong, director of the Center for International Politics and Economic Research of Peking University, believes that the interdependent relationship of the global economy formed in the past 30 years is now being "weaponized" and "secured"; Professor Li Wei of the School of International Relations of Renmin University describes the possible prospects of Sino-US economic relations by analyzing the current state of enterprise survival; Professor Zhu Jiejin of the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University discusses the different models displayed between China and the United States in the field of geo-economics and scientific and technological competition. And the logic behind this pattern.
The seventh topic focused on "National Security and Crisis Management", which was chaired by Li Jie of the Institute for Advanced Study in Global and Contemporary China and the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs at the University of hong Kong Chinese, Shenzhen. Professor Zhang Chi, deputy director of the National Security Strategy Research Office of the National Security College of the National Security College of the National Defense University, believes that national security is the core of international relations, and looks forward to the future around the crisis management between China and the United States; Zhao Tong, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment center of Tsinghua, discussed the possible factors that trigger the risk of military crisis, analyzed the main challenges faced by crisis management, and proposed some feasible ideas and specific measures for crisis management; Professor Cai Cuihong of the American Research Center of Fudan University started with "artificial intelligence". The concept of techno-localism is proposed, and the concept of artificial intelligence is deeply analyzed how artificial intelligence will affect strategic stability. Fan Jishe, a researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Studies of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, commented on the discussion, arguing that national security and crisis management are undergoing profound changes, and the impact of technological progress and diffusion is also an important factor in this change.
Although the topic of "law and rules" is placed at the end, it is a core issue in the discussion of disorder, rule reconstruction, and discourse power reconstruction. Liang Xiaohui Research Institute, deputy chief economist of China Textile Information Center, presided over the discussion. Zhou Jian, a former representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Border and Maritime Affairs, shared his views on changes in the external environment and the international order; Professor Liu Ying of the Law School of Sun Yat-sen University discussed in detail the US trade restrictions on China; and Dang Heping of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of Chinese in Hong Kong (Shenzhen) analyzed the fundamental impact of the US long-arm jurisdiction on the international order.
Finally, Professor Zheng Yongnian made a closing summary. Zheng Yongnian said that the discussion achieved the expected purpose, although everyone came from different disciplines and fields, there is still a lot of consensus on the impact of China's international environmental changes and how China responds to these changes. Although the international order has changed because of changes in the relations between major powers, whether it is reforming or reshaping the international order, it needs to be through cooperation between major powers. The community of shared future for mankind advocated by China has more and more practical needs, because more and more problems need to be solved through the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind, including climate and environment issues, energy issues, public health issues, Internet security issues, extreme populism, terrorism and so on. No big country can face and solve these problems alone, and the process of mankind solving these problems is also the process of forming a community with a shared future for mankind. Zheng Yongnian believes that modern international relations theory is constructed by Western social scientists based on the experience of international relations in the West (first Europe, then the United States), and we can learn, but we cannot copy and paste, because China's international relations theory must be based on China's own international relations and foreign policy practice.
The first Baichuan Forum attracted the attention of scholars, media and people from all walks of life, and the conference made an analysis and assessment of China's external environment, looking forward to injecting ideological momentum and contributing to the development of China and the world in the new era.
Source: Guangming Daily