Straight news: Two explosions have occurred at Kabul Airport and a nearby hotel, which have killed more than a hundred Afghan civilians and more than a dozen U.S. soldiers. The Islamic State extremist group (ISIS) has declared itself responsible for both bombings, and its branch in Afghanistan, ISIS-K, is believed to have carried out the attacks. Why did the extremist group choose to launch a terrorist attack at this point in time before the US military left? What are the other purposes behind this operation?
Yin Gang Researcher, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: The reason why the "Islamic State" did this is of course because they regard the United States as an enemy and cause trouble for the United States.
In addition, they and the Taliban are also sworn enemies. In the past five or six years, there have been frequent conflicts between the Taliban and the Islamic State, which has also carried out explosive terrorist incidents in the areas controlled by the Taliban, and now when the Taliban is sweeping the country like a cloud, they have opened prisons in some places, released ordinary prisoners, and even released criminals, but they have not released the Detainees of the Islamic State, and even executed a small number of leaders of the "Islamic State", which shows that they also have hatred for the Taliban.
So I think the situation in Kabul is more chaotic now, the Taliban just failed to effectively control the situation, and this gave the Islamic State an opportunity. Moreover, the terrorist attacks are happening now because the Islamic State's lair in Afghanistan is not in Kabul, not even near Kabul, but in the mountains of northeastern Afghanistan, far from Kabul, near the border with Pakistan, and they need time to prepare.
Straight News: What impact will this terrorist attack have on the current situation in Afghanistan? Especially at a time when Atta is preparing to form a coalition government?
Yin Gang, Research Fellow, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: I think these terrorist attacks will frustrate all Afghans, including the Taliban, including the leaders of various factions considering whether to join the Taliban coalition government. Because it means that their future prospects, no matter how hard they try, will not be too bright. They may not have felt much about the THREAT of the Islamic State in their daily lives in the past, but this time it is different.
Just as the legitimate Afghan government was unable to eliminate the Taliban in previous years, in the coming period, even if the Taliban can occupy Kabul to form a government, it will not be able to completely eliminate the Islamic State, so I think this news is a news that frustrates everyone, but this matter will not stop the Taliban and other political leaders of political factions in their efforts to form a coalition government, and they will continue to organize the government according to the original rules and as originally envisaged.
Straight News: Biden was asked to resign after an explosion near Kabul airport, and Biden admitted, "I am fundamentally responsible for everything that has happened recently." "Do you think Biden will continue to add troops to Afghanistan next?"
Yin Gang, Researcher, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: I think what has happened in Afghanistan in the recent period has humiliated the United States and disgraced Biden. Biden said the other day that the Afghan evacuation was a success, that it was done under the agreement signed between the former government and the Taliban, and that not a single American died in the evacuation, and that the situation has completely changed.
I think this is a very big blow to Biden, including his personal future, there will definitely be people in Congress to propose a bill to impeach him, and all his future actions in Afghanistan have cast a shadow, it is also a very heavy blow to the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party will make full use of this opportunity, and Trump himself will make full use of this opportunity to attack the Democratic Party and attack Biden.
U.S. domestic politics will be further embroiled over the Afghan issue.
According to the agreement between the United States and the Taliban, the withdrawal of troops must be made by August 31. But technically, there are now more than 1,000 Americans and some U.S. allies left in Afghanistan. Procedurally, they must be withdrawn gradually, and if there is confusion in the withdrawal, there may be some who will not be able to evacuate. I think it doesn't matter if the troops are increased or not, the key is the existing US troops in Afghanistan, and it is enough to organize the evacuation of the airport.
Straight News: In addition to posing a direct security threat to the thousands of U.S. troops still in Afghanistan, what impact do you think the escalating terrorist attacks orchestrated by extremist groups will have on the United States, which is about to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of 9/11? Does this mean that the spillover effects and risks of the Hasty U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan have emerged?
Yin Gang, Research Fellow, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: I think with the 20th anniversary of 911, people will clearly realize that al-Qaida is now becoming less and less influential, because many of its people have joined the Islamic State. The Taliban will try to reverse its political image among the people. Compared with 20 years ago, the Islamic State extremist group has changed its role, that is, the Islamic State poses a bigger and more terrifying threat to the world, such as its activity in Iraq, Syria and Africa.
But from 2015 to the present, the Islamic State has been defeated in the Middle East and in West Asia.
Now that the NATO forces in Afghanistan have withdrawn and the Taliban have taken control of Afghanistan, they are absolutely incapable of waging a protracted war against the Islamic State in such a complex terrain and complex civilian environment in Afghanistan. The problem now is not the spillover of the security situation in Afghanistan, but the inability of Afghanistan itself to withstand the onslaught of the new terrorist forces on the new order that may now be formed.
Author: Yin Gang, Research Fellow, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.