An article directly knocked out the "Northeast Moutai" Changchun High-tech 12.4 billion market value.
Recently, Xinhua Viewpoint released an article titled "Height Anxiety Plays the "Height Injection"? dangerous! It is pointed out that the so-called "elevation needle" is actually growth hormone, but there are signs of abuse, which may bring health risks such as endocrine disorders, femoral head slippage, and scoliosis to the user.
As the leading stock of domestic growth hormone, Changchun Gaoxin directly ate a drop stop on August 5.
Before the controversy, Changchun Gaoxin had been a "fragrant feast" in the capital market, and its stock price had risen 12 times in the past decade, comparable to Moutai. At the same time, the company's performance is also far ahead in the industry, with revenue of more than 8 billion yuan in 2020 and a market share of 80%.
Originally the invention of growth hormone was a rigid need to address some people's diseases caused by functional protein deficiencies, but now when height can be intervened, it means that drugs can be abused.
So, after growth hormone as a profit growth point is pushed to the cusp of the storm, will Changchun's high-tech performance touch the "ceiling"?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="13" >01, when the need turns into anxiety</h1>
Although Messi is now a "giant" holding a golden ball, the king of the plum ball has also fallen into "height anxiety".
In 2000, the 13-year-old Messi was less than 1.4 meters tall, and after insisting on injecting growth hormone for 3 years, he grew to 1.7 meters, and finally achieved his five-time Golden Globe glory.
In contrast, in China, the base of childhood short stature is also very large. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2019, China's population aged 4-15 was about 185 million, while the incidence of short stature was about 3%, according to this base, the number of children with short stature in China in 2019 was about 5.5 million.
Changchun Gaoxin is a company that has mastered the "code" of Chinese children's heightening, and occupies half of this market, which is inseparable from a person, Jin Lei, the founder of its subsidiary Kinsey Pharmaceutical.
"Let Chinese children grow 5 centimeters taller", this is Jin Lei's original intention. Of course, there is also his special feelings for the group of short stature patients: he likes sports in a small height, but he cannot enter the school basketball team because he is not tall enough, and he who has worked overseas study tours has made him feel the contempt of the big foreigners for the small ones.
This "inferiority" was deeply buried in the heart of Jin Lei, from graduating from Peking University majoring in biology to studying at the University of California, San Francisco, Jin Lei's professional direction has never left biology, and finally Jin Lei has also turned this obsession into reality.
In 1995, during his doctoral studies, Jin Lei successfully invented the "Jinlei E. coli secretory type technology", and he left from Genentech to choose to return to China to start a business.
Perhaps his technology is too cutting-edge, or his too strong scientific research temperament, no one in China is willing to invest money in his projects. Fortunately, in 1995, Changchun High-tech, which had only been established for two years, threw an olive branch to Jin Lei, and the two sides hit it off. Changchun Gaoxin invested in Kinsey Pharmaceutical with funds, and Jin Lei invested in technology, with both sides holding 70% and 24% of the shares respectively.
Since then, Jinlei, Kinsey Pharmaceutical and Changchun High-tech have been deeply bound together. In 1998, the R&D team led by Jin Lei developed China's first injectable recombinant human growth hormone powder injection, ending the history of no domestic growth hormone in China.
Liu Yongli, Preparation Director of Shanghai Lanque Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd., said: "Growth hormone is a key protein naturally secreted by the human pituitary gland to promote growth and development and regulate metabolism. ”
According to the "Recommendations for the Clinical Application of Genetic Recombinant Human Growth Hormone Pediatrics", in addition to growth hormone deficiency, idiopathic short stature and Turner syndrome, which are common in domestic pediatrics that cause short stature, can be treated with growth hormone.
Like insulin, growth hormone was originally invented to treat diseases caused by defects in certain functional proteins in humans, which is a rigid need. According to the Ministry of Health's Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Precocious Puberty (Trial), the criteria for predicting significant impairment in adult height are less than 160 cm for boys and 150 cm for girls, and children who exceed this standard do not need to be intervened by injections.
But some parents' psychological standards do not stop there, they do not want their children to fall on the starting line in every way, including height. According to the data of the Science Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, the incidence of short stature in children in China is about 3%. According to the Definition of the World Health Organization (WHO), rare diseases are diseases that affect 0.65‰-1‰ of the total population.
Liu Yongli said: "The age of the best short stature for growth hormone treatment is 0-13 years old, and adolescents with normal growth hormone secretion only need to maintain a good state of life, sleep enough and exercise, and eat a nutritious and healthy diet, so that they will not see some false propaganda at the age of 20 or so, to pay such an IQ tax." ”
But there is no doubt that when demand turns into anxiety, "height" becomes a business.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="48" >02, the "performance anxiety" of industry leaders</h1>
In 1996, Changchun Gaoxin landed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the company's business was quite diversified at that time.
The sales of pharmaceutical products, housing leasing, commodity sales, financial business, catering, etc., are the company's sources of income. Among them, pharmaceutical products mainly include proprietary Chinese medicine and subsidiary Changsheng Bio's human rabies purification vaccine (hereinafter referred to as "rabies vaccine").
However, with the increase in the number of enterprises producing rabies vaccines, the gross profit margin of the company's vaccine products fell from 71% to 57.6%. Therefore, in 2003, the elixir that produced rabies vaccine was transferred, and growth hormone became a new growth point for the company.
After years of deep cultivation in the field of medicine, the current business of Changchun Gaoxin is composed of four major sectors: Kinsey Pharmaceutical, which is engaged in genetically engineered drugs, Baike Biologics, which uses human vaccines, Huakang Pharmaceutical, which is a proprietary Chinese medicine, and High-tech Real Estate, which is engaged in real estate business.
Among them, Kinsey Pharmaceutical, which is mainly based on growth hormone, can be called the mainstay of the company.
In 2011, the proportion of Kinsey Pharmaceutical in total revenue exceeded 40% for the first time, and since then it has been higher year by year. By 2020, Kinsey Pharmaceuticals' revenue will reach 5.8 billion yuan, accounting for 68% of total revenue.
Compared with other pharmaceutical products, the gross profit margin of genetically engineered drugs where growth hormone is located is the highest, and the gross profit margin in the past five years is more than 90%, so Changchun Gaoxin has gained the title of "Northeast Medicine Mao".
Kinsey Pharmaceutical has also become the main force of Changchun high-tech money-making. From 2001 to 2020, Changchun Gaoxin's cumulative net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, of which Kinsey Pharmaceutical contributed a net profit of 8.867 billion yuan, accounting for 81%.
In order to do a good job in the "height" business, Changchun Gaoxin has also made sufficient efforts in marketing. Between 2001 and 2020, an average of 35% of the company's operating income was invested in sales. In 2020, the sales expenses have reached 2.582 billion yuan, half of which are "sales commissions and commissions".
It can be said that the fate of Changchun High-tech and Kinsey Pharmaceutical has been tightly tied together.
Kinsey Pharmaceuticals' growth hormone is mainly aimed at minors aged 0-13 years. According to the results of the census, the northeast accounted for 18.5% of the population aged 0-14 in 2000, but this proportion has dropped to 11.78% in 2010 and remains at 11% by 2020.
This change in proportion seems to be consistent with the income change of Changchun Gaoxin.
Before 2011, revenue in the Northeast accounted for 50% of the company's total revenue. However, in the following decade, East China became the company's main source of revenue. In 2020, the proportion of the population aged 0-14 in East China remained at 16.82%.
According to the Oriental Wealth Research Report, in the domestic growth hormone industry, Kinsey Pharmaceutical has ranked first for many years, with a market share of up to 79% in 2019, far exceeding competitors such as Anke Bio and United Saier, and is the absolute leader in the industry.
This also means that if Kinsey Pharmaceutical wants to maintain a high growth rate in the future, it is bound to open up new markets, but this is not easy.
In the past three years, Changchun High-tech's foreign revenue accounted for less than 1%, so going to sea is not the company's goal in the short term. According to the 2021 annual strategic exchange minutes of Changchun High-tech, Kinsey Pharmaceutical has begun to sink the channel in the sales of growth hormone.
In 2020, Changchun High-tech revenue was 8.577 billion yuan, and the revenue growth rate was only 16%, but accounts receivable rose by 47% year-on-year. While revenue growth slowed, accounts receivable rose sharply. One possible explanation is that the company is pressing goods downstream.
If this is the case, then the purpose of doing so is nothing more than to maintain high growth in superficial performance. But even so, this is still the slowest growth rate in five years, and the industry leaders seem to have "performance anxiety".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="91" >03, who is paying for anxiety? </h1>
At the same time of anxiety, Changchun High-tech is not smooth in the capital market.
On May 17, 2021, the company's stock price hit a record high of 522.16 yuan and fell all the way. As of August 5, its stock price has fallen to 27.651 billion yuan, almost to the waist.
You know, before that, Changchun High-tech was the "fragrant food" of the capital market. By the beginning of 2021, its stock price had risen nearly 50 times.
Previously, a wealth story about Changchun Gaoxin was widely circulated: an old lady in Dalian bought Changchun Gaoxin for 50,000 yuan in 2008 and forgot about it. After 13 years, it was found that the market value of the account reached more than 5 million yuan, and it made 100 times.
However, recent investors are very upset, in addition to the stock price down, there is another important reason, is the possibility of Changchun high-tech being included in the collection.
On May 21, the Guangdong Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau issued the "Letter on Jointly Carrying Out the Procurement of Provincial Drugs and Consumables Ultrasonic Blade Alliance", in which recombinant human growth hormone may be included in the collection.
Previously, affected by the collection, the price of cardiac stents directly entered the "hundred yuan ranks" from the era of 10,000 yuan, with a drop of more than 90%. Once growth hormone is included in the collection, then the performance of Changchun Gaoxin is bound to bear great pressure. Affected by this, Changchun Gaoxin's stock price offered a drop stop on the same day.
Prior to this, the core figures of Changchun High-tech, the second shareholder Jin Lei and the third shareholder Lin Dianhai, had chosen to reduce their holdings and cash out.
According to Oriental Wealth Choice data, since the middle of 2020, Jin Lei has reduced his holdings five times, with a cash amount of up to 5.556 billion yuan; Lin Dianhai has reduced his holdings by 1.445 million shares.
For institutions with a keen sense of smell, choices have already been made.
On July 21, the fund's second quarter position disclosure was completed, specifically, a total of 308 funds of the top ten heavy stocks data disclosure held Changchun High-tech, a decrease of 248 from the first quarter. The market value of the fund's holdings was 25.5 billion, accounting for 17.35% of the circulating market value at the end of the reporting period, a decrease of 6.22 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Subsequently, from July 22 to August 5, Changchun Gaoxin's stock price fell again, falling as much as 31%.
However, after institutions and major shareholders have withdrawn or reduced their holdings, the number of shareholders of Changchun Gaoxin is rising. On May 20, three days after the stock price hit a new high, the number of shareholders was only 58,000. By the end of July, after a sharp drop in the share price, the number of shareholders had soared to 131,800, an increase of 127%.
Whether the shareholders have bottomed out is not certain, but after experts pointed out the possible side effects of growth hormone, parents are bound to be more cautious in their choices when facing "height anxiety". And this may make Changchun Gaoxin's already "anxious" performance add another heavy pressure.
(Author 丨 Wang Yihan Zeng Jiayi Editor 丨 Liao Ying)