(Si Jin Note: This article was written more than 10 years ago, and the old knows the new... ）
Recently, many scholars in the field of natural sciences in the United States have changed careers and begun to study social and economic issues. These scholars have several common characteristics. The first is independence. Over the years, they have already achieved success in their fields, studying the economy purely out of their own interests and the mentality of worrying about the country and the people. They do not serve any investment bank or financial institution, nor do they "fight" for government policymakers like many "royal" economists; the second is neutrality, and the rice bowl determines the tongue. "Professional economists" have to consider their sources of income before speaking, so the statements of these experts tend to be biased, either biased toward a vested interest group or biased toward advocating government intervention. In contrast, independent scholars rarely speak insincerely; the third is rigor. Although these scholars do not have the title of "economists", their research experience and academic mentality in non-financial fields are equally beneficial to social and economic research. The conclusions they have reached through in-depth analysis are all the more worthy of serious treatment.
Chris Martenson began studying international macroeconomic and financial phenomena in the early 2000s and funded a website called crash course. He himself is a Ph.D. in biochemistry and neurotoxicology in the United States, has made great achievements in the field of life sciences, has published many papers, and is also the vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. In an interview, he confided why he chose to turn halfway to finance:
"At first, it was just curiosity, especially after the tech bubble burst in 1999, and I wanted to explore the roots of people's greed and fear. I consulted various data from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, the price trends of stock and bond markets in various countries, and searched for a large amount of financial and economic data. At first, I just had the mentality of tasting it for a while, but when I opened the door, I found that the contents were so dazzling, and the strangest thing was that mainstream economists and the media never explored the root causes of various problems, whether it was research or reporting, there seemed to always be some forbidden areas. I want to start with myself, unite with the American people, and dig out all those hidden secrets and lies. It is really time to reflect on the future of mankind. Personally, you have to learn how to protect yourself over the next 20 years. ”
Chris's online Crash Crash Course, a set of courses on how to survive in a harsh economic environment in the future, is divided into 20 chapters and can sum up his thinking in three sentences:
First, the next 20 years of the world will be very different from the past 20 years.
Second, the impending upheavals will go far beyond the responsiveness of societies and State institutions.
Third, we do not lack the science, technology and knowledge to adapt to change, all that is missing is consciousness.
Yes, consciousness determines the speed of action. Humanity has consumed too many resources, caused irreversible environmental damage, and accumulated debts that will never be repaid, and it is difficult to have any reason to be optimistic in the next 20 years.
"There are currently more than 200 charts of important data in the world, all of which show this trend," Chris said solemnly, picking up a hockey club, "whether it's population, energy consumption, carbon emissions or money supply, we are in a sharp upward position." Obviously, this growth is unsustainable. You can't expect the world to continue to overdraft for 20 years, as it has in the past. The financial crisis is just the beginning, and the inflection point has long been approached. ”
In Chapter 5 of the course, "Development and Prosperity," Chris poured cold water on the heads of the ignorant who saw only GDP as long as they thought that if the policies were right, they could keep the economy growing at a high rate forever:
"Many people confuse growth with prosperity, believing that economic development must bring prosperity, and that human beings love prosperity, so they feel that the faster the development, the better. This is a flawed one-way thinking. They do not see that prosperity will also restrict development, because the earth's resources are limited, and the faster it develops, the faster the rate of resource consumption will be, and the only thing that awaits humanity in the end is collapse. It's like a family with a fixed monthly income, to live a relatively prosperous life, it has to have fewer children; the result of blindly having children can only make the standard of living lower and lower, and finally completely bankrupt. ”
Chris's research focused on three "e's" and then made a series of recommendations to Americans to address future survival challenges. The three e's are:
Economy: The growth of the money supply in the shape of a hockey club, the bursting credit bubble, the ballooning world population, and the decline in the willingness of the whole people to save. All this casts a shadow over economic development over the next 20 years. Stop indulging in the game of stock and real estate markets and prepare for a 20-year protracted recession.
Energy: Global "peak oil" has emerged, and the oil price of $147/barrel will never be the peak. Oil is the lifeblood of the modern economy. High oil prices are bound to constrain economic growth. Don't pin your hopes on technological progress in solving the energy problem. Technological progress can only help us find energy, but technology itself is not energy. For the foreseeable future, no new energy source can replace oil.
Note: "Peak Oil" is also known as "Hubbert Peak". Boldly proposed by american geologist King Hubbert in 1953. At the time, he predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1969 and decline after it peaked. Although many experts questioned his predictions at the time, in 1970 he foresaw what he had foreseen. Recently, the "peak oil" theory has received renewed attention. Experts predict that global oil output will peak between 2004 and 2015, a scenario that will lead to an unprecedented energy crisis because the energy sources that can replace oil, especially solar energy, are not efficient enough to produce electricity.
Environment: Climate change and food output are two of the biggest challenges facing humanity. Those who wish to do so should stockpile food and drinking water from now on.
Chris enumerates a variety of dangerous movements in the shape of "hockey clubs."
As Chris puts it, the next 20 years of "being different" will be beyond most people's imagination. Those who are still calculating the price-to-earnings ratio of stocks at current economic growth rates have made a fatal mistake. If investing in certain assets makes you money in the first decade of the 21st century, be aware that continuing to hold such assets for the next decade is likely to cost you money. (Sijin Note: Except for the author, all articles are original... ）
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