Against China, Australia may eventually be left alone! Do not understand the balance of China, Canberra is the only one

Earlier this month, the United States, Britain and Australia announced with great fanfare the aukus , a security pact aimed at countering China. The agreement was hailed by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison as a "historic opportunity" to "protect shared values and promote security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region."

As U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies, no country in the Asia-Pacific region has been as aggressive as Australia in supporting Washington and lobbying other countries to join. A security alliance like The Augustus could mean that Australia's efforts pay off, as the United States stands behind Canberra's actions in the face of deteriorating relations with China.

But from a trade perspective, the situation is more complicated. Canberra's approach to superpower relations offers other countries a free lesson. Australia is the starkest example of the dilemma facing all countries in the region: China depends on china for economic growth, but the United States for security. Canberra's choice reveals the mistake behind a certain mindset. This mentality sees economic shocks from "rising up against China" as an honor. Canberra's choice also means how isolated a country that takes such an approach might be.

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Australia's shift to China began in the second half of 2016. But for the most part, Beijing has limited its grievances to the diplomatic realm.

This changed in April 2020. At the time, Australia's political leaders gave the clear impression that Australia had joined forces with the Trump administration to attack China over the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beijing has taken a spate of trade actions that now affect Australia's exports of more than a dozen products, from coal to wine.

Despite the promoters of Canberra's "crazy bravery" approach, stressing that officials in Tokyo and New Delhi issued a joint statement with Canberra on "against coercive economic practices," Tokyo and New Delhi are not even prepared to name China by name. Indonesia, the undisputed economic and strategic center of gravity in Southeast Asia, has completely refused to sign anything about economic coercion. The fact is that many countries have far more direct disputes with Beijing than in Canberra. But few seem to believe that the Australian government's approach is better than a cautious hedging strategy.

Australia is now an outsider, with no high-level political dialogue with China and a series of Chinese trade measures.

In June, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made sharp remarks at a joint news conference with Prime Minister Morrison. "It will be difficult to get along [with China], he said... You have to deal with this... But treat them as problems in the partnership you want to keep going, not as problems with the adversaries you're trying to fight. ”

In May, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken insisted that the United States "will not leave Australia alone," but Washington has shown no interest in bearing the costs of delivering on that promise.

In March, Goldman, chargé d'affaires ad interim of the U.S. Embassy in Australia, cheered on Australia: "I just want to say, keep doing what you do, and believe that the United States and other like-minded democracies want to see Australia succeed." However, the U.S. Embassy declined to comment when it saw the latest trade data showing that U.S. companies were exporting more goods to China, filling the void left by the banned Australian imports.

Kurt Campbell, the White House coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, has insisted that the United States is "not prepared to improve relations with China" as long as Australia is hit by trade. Six months later, U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo talked about increasing trade with China. In addition, after eight months of evaluation of the U.S.-China trade relationship, U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi announced this week that the Biden administration is pushing for "re-peg", not decoupling.

Meanwhile, Australia's trade minister, Dan Tehan, has not even been able to make a call with the minister in Beijing since taking up the post last December.

Throughout Australia's region, this complex balance is understood. The only exception, perhaps, is Canberra. (The author is James Lawrenceson, Dean of the Institute of Australia-China Relations at the University of Technology Sydney, translated by Chen Jun'an)