Autumn is high and refreshing, the big cold wave, cold winter is really coming? Has it been warned? Indeed, this is increasingly likely. According to the US Climate Center's re-release of the "La Niña recurrence" warning, the probability has increased from 70% to 70% to 80%, while the United Nations has also issued a warning that the La Niña climate cycle may re-emerge in 2021, so the climate change in 2021 may have become a "foregone conclusion".
When La Niña occurs, it triggers atmospheric fluctuations. The appearance of the La Niña phenomenon this time is a bit beyond everyone's expectations, doesn't it mean that the La Niña phenomenon and the El Niño phenomenon are cyclical?
2021 only ended the La Niña phenomenon, it may even appear, indeed, this is not in line with everyone's conventional statement, but the recurrence of the La Niña phenomenon in 2021 has become a high probability event, or really coming, let's see the situation.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="16" > the recurrence of the La Niña phenomenon in 2021, basically locked</h1>
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Climate Center (NOAA), the tropical Pacific region is about to enter the development period of La Niña, and forecasters estimate that the probability of La Niña this winter is 70-80%, which is a lot higher in comparison.
Moreover, judging from the ENSO response in August, it is indeed moving closer to the La Niña phenomenon. If the long-term average is below -0.5 degrees, it is basically certain that the La Niña phenomenon has recurred.
The threshold range of the La Niña phenomenon is -0.5 degrees, so from the trend point of view, it is indeed possible to enter the Pacific Ocean is about to "cool down" and "cool". According to the data from the ocean temperature dataset, the abnormal low temperature in August reached -0.45 degrees, so this is only -0.05 degrees from the threshold of la Niña, which is very close, which is a new value state of La Niña.
So, it is true that the possibility of the emergence of the La Niña phenomenon is greatly increased, which is not the NOAA alone, the Australian Meteorological Agency, the United Nations and other agencies, are saying that the La Niña phenomenon will reappear, but the probability of the United Nations is low, and the probability of recurrence before the end of the year is only 40%, which is the general situation.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="15" > the big cold wave and cold winter warning appeared? </h1>
La Niña, which refers to a massive cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Oceans, occurs every two to seven years, and it is clear that 2021 is an unusual year.
From this situation, the La Niña phenomenon has a high probability of appearing, and it is indeed possible to trigger this year's cold wave and cold winter, but this is only a trend and cannot be affirmed. The emergence of the La Niña phenomenon, and whether there are problems such as the great cold wave and cold winter, this also needs to be combined with the influence of multiple factors such as atmospheric circulation in winter, subtropical high pressure, cold air, etc., rather than a single factor.
So we can only say that if the La Niña phenomenon occurs, it will indeed bring about climate fluctuations, but how strong the ripple is, it is difficult to define. When the La Niña phenomenon occurred, there was also a clear feature, that is, it would trigger the "temporary warming stop" of the earth, which was a good thing for the earth.
In the context of global warming, La Niña and El Niño, which have a wide impact on the earth, have changed dramatically, so it is exacerbating and distorting the impact of this natural phenomenon.
If it can be alleviated, it must be a good thing. It will only enhance the knock-on effect, in addition to the possibility of a large cold wave and a cold winter, it may also trigger an increase in high temperatures and droughts in other parts of the world, so extreme weather phenomena may appear.
La Niña is not the only factor, global warming can be said to be the root cause of these climate changes, so to solve the climate changes, mainly depends on the changes in global warming. And here is a small episode, in fact, the earth is in the "Big Ice Age" period.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="11" > Earth is in the Ice Age, why is it so hot? </h1>
According to wu Huiting, a lecturer in geology, geologists have called the period in the history of the earth in which the atmosphere and the long-term low temperature on the surface led to the significant expansion of the polar and mountain ice sheets, and even covered the entire continent, called the Great Ice Age, and since the formation of the Earth, there have been at least 5 great ice ages, and the duration of each ice age can reach tens of millions of years.
During the Period of the Great Ice Age, the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets covered a very wide area, exceeding 30% of the total surface area, compared with this, our earth is in the Great Ice Age, the cold period of the Earth.
Because glaciers still exist in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, and why the current situation of the earth is so hot, it is a change in the climate of human beings during the Ice Age, and we also have a greenhouse period, that is, this period of heat.
However, this greenhouse period is only part of the Great Ice Age, so Earth heat is a short-lived condition. Scientists expect that the next ice age will arrive in about 90,000 years, and the "frozen" world will come again.
Of course, this time is really far away, but whether it is true or not we can not investigate, do not know whether geologists are accurate or not, but relatively hot, we may still need to change in human activities for the time being, climate warming is the consensus of human beings, if greenhouse gas emissions continue, it will inevitably bring greater impact, this is the general situation.