Today's liquor trend is a bit interesting, it is said that the three quarterly reports have just come out, these liquor companies are actually quite in line with expectations, are good.
Why did Wuliangye and Fenjiu fall a little more?
In my opinion, there is no so-called "institution knows in advance that retail investors do not know the bearish". Baijiu is currently most afraid of the inflection point.
Wuliangye is the second oldest and sells well. But it seems that there is no new growth point in the future. A bit afraid of turning.
Fenjiu grew rapidly, remembering that the semi-annual report growth rate was more than 70%, and the third quarterly report was more than 50%, and the valuation was naturally high. But will there be such a high growth rate next year? In fact, 30% is already excellent, but the 30% growth rate may have to be valued a little.
Moutai on the 1800 on the plate, after all, the change of the boss, the increase in the factory price has become possible. Therefore, before the virtual position waited for the inflection point of the cycle, the current upward posture is waiting for the price increase.
Well, the three-year equity incentive seems to provide a guarantee for the next three years not to turn down. But a national cellar seems to be not strong enough, recently the special qu 1952 and the national ration wine black cover out, coupled with the teaching age and special qu six zero and so on to good, to give this wish to give real content, so the stock price is a little stronger.
In fact, it is all emotions, and there is no substance. But sentiment may lead some investors to make a move to rebalance their positions. The plate has also changed a little.
Historically, the liquor sector has had many similar retracements triggered by similar rises, but after that, the stock price has often been repaired and further improved under the catalysis of performance, the reason is that the excellent business attributes of the industry have not changed. The demand side of high-end liquor grows rapidly, but the supply side is stable, the brand barriers are strong, and it is difficult for new products to stand out, which is an excellent business model.
At the same time, the stability of performance is relatively strong, and it is expected to benefit from the continuous increase in the proportion of wealthy people in the whole society. In the long run, high-end liquor is still one of the most investment-worthy industries in the A-share market, with the basis of continuous price increases and long-term growth space, we are firmly optimistic about the medium- and long-term development opportunities of the high-end liquor industry.
CICC believes that the price increase of Wuliangye and Moutai in the high-end wine market will not stop, and there is a lack of effective competitors, and Moutai Wuliangye has become an industry leader in ultra-high-end and high-end volkswagen. Supply is still relatively tight, and it is also the basic requirement for ultra-high-end goods. Regional leaders have long-term structural growth opportunities, and listed wine companies with clear structural improvements and significantly undervalued valuations are worth paying attention to.