Principal Wen
Recently, the hottest topic on the Internet about buying a house has been the "if you don't buy a house this year and next year, whether you will be more unaffordable after 5 years". If you want to answer this question, you must comprehensively analyze the overall situation of the current property market.
In view of the problem of the property market, we may wish to start from the most important point - the regulation of the property market.
With the continuous development of the property market in recent years, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has repeatedly emphasized that the regulation and control of the property market should not be relaxed, and it should be based on the specific conditions of each city, according to local conditions and city policies, while maintaining the development of the property market, and constantly establishing and improving the long-term real estate mechanism.
Not only that, the central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have been supervising and strictly preventing illegal funds from flowing into the property market since last year, and unswervingly follow the general tone of housing and not speculation.
In addition, for the regulation of the property market, the introduction of real estate tax has also been put on the agenda, in fact, as early as the previous real estate tax has been introduced three principles (legislation, authorization and promotion), and constantly establish and improve the real estate tax adjustment mechanism. Many experts predict that the real estate tax will most likely be introduced during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and the real estate tax will most likely be the first to be introduced in the next two years.
The second is the demand for the current property market.
According to the statistics of the central bank, the current urban population ownership rate in China has reached 96%, and the proportion of families with two or more houses has reached 41.5%.
According to the above data, the analysis of the overall demand of China's property market, in fact, does not have the disadvantage of people having no house to live in, and the overall housing market shows a housing surplus. The inventory of the property market continues to squeeze, why do most people in our country still have no house to live in?
First of all, the problem of high housing prices in China has not been effectively solved; secondly, most of the houses in China are still in the hands of a small number of people (speculators). For ordinary just needs, although there is demand, it is simply unable to bear the pressure of high housing prices and monthly loan repayment in the future.
Not only that, according to the data of the Seven Census, the phenomenon of aging and low birthrate in China is still intensifying. It is reported that the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in China has reached 13.5%, about 190 million people. According to this trend forecast, it is expected that in the next 5 years, China's elderly population over 60 years old will exceed the 300 million mark.
In addition, as of 2020, the number of new births in China has ushered in four consecutive declines, and even some experts pointed out that the number of new births in 2021 is expected to fall below 10 million, resulting in further aggravation of the phenomenon of aging and low birthrate.
China's urbanization rate has also ushered in a further increase, the current overall level has reached 63.89%, with the level of developed countries close, the growth rate of urbanization rate will gradually slow down, rural residents influx into the city settlement phenomenon will also be reduced.
In fact, it is not difficult to see from the above that whether it is internal or external, the continuous contraction of demand for housing in the future has become an undeniable fact.
Third, the property market is gradually oversupplying and oversupplying and oversupplying.
As of 2017, China's housing vacancy rate has reached 21.4% (southwestern university of finance and economics statistics show that), but this is only an average data, and the phenomenon of real estate surplus in some cities is even more serious. Among them, the data also shows that the number of vacant houses has reached more than 65 million sets, and it does not include rural self-built houses and small property rights houses. As of today, the number of vacant houses is expected to reach more than 100 million units, according to the calculation of a family of three, it is expected to be able to solve the housing problem of about 300 million people.
At present, China's per capita housing area has reached 40 square meters, far exceeding the average level of most developed countries, so the excess of real estate and oversupply has become the current situation of China's property market.
Therefore, based on the above, whether it is the regulation of the property market, the excess of real estate or the reduction of demand in the property market, it will be almost difficult to support the continued rise of house prices, and the overall trend of the future development of the property market is actually very clear - healthy and stable.
Therefore, it is not difficult for us to analyze the current situation of the property market mentioned above, and the answer of "if you don't buy a house this year and next year, you won't be able to afford it after 5 years" has been clear. In fact, the famous entrepreneurs Cao Dewang and Wang Shi have their own views on this issue, and their views are almost clear.
Wang Shi believes that whether it is young people or new citizens, they should take the career as the premise, take advantage of the young people should work harder, should not be bound by buying a house early, and can retreat to the second choice to rent a house. Therefore, young people should take advantage of their youth to fight harder, and it is not too late to buy a house after success.
Cao Dewang young people buying a house prematurely is actually not too good, the prosperity experienced by real estate must be short-lived, and only the improvement of the real economy can truly drive national economic growth. Therefore, we should not sink into the "gentle township" brought by real estate, but should do a good job in scientific research, vigorously develop manufacturing, high-tech industries, etc., and help the real economy achieve a real rise.