According to media reports, the current pork prices in various places have declined to varying degrees, the price of pork in Beijing has dropped by 40% compared with the beginning of the year, the price of pork in some parts of Jiangxi and Zhejiang has entered the "single digits", and the average wholesale price of pork in the country has also dropped to about 10 yuan. However, the current market is showing an anomaly, although the price of pork is so cheap, but the consumer's enthusiasm for pork is not high, and the overall sales of pork in various places are limited.
So what is the reason why the price of pork is so cheap, and everyone still does not eat pork? This should start from two years ago, in 2019, due to the dual pressure of non-plague and environmental protection, China's pig production capacity fell to a trough, pig prices and meat prices rose accordingly, and wool pigs also had the title of "flying pig". Pork prices rose to nearly 40 yuan a catty at the highest, and the price of beef was no more than that, the rich choice of relatively healthy beef and mutton to eat, no money to eat vegetables, fish and chicken and duck meat, in short, the pork consumption market was greatly divided by two aspects, consumer consumption habits have also changed.
Although the price of pork is basically back to normal levels now, consumers who have changed their consumption habits have not yet adapted to the price reduction of pork for a while. Everyone also found in daily life that life without eating pork will not be greatly affected. Coupled with the recent two years of the epidemic everyone's income is not high, living pressure is relatively large, take the farmers, although the price of corn, wheat and other grains has risen, but the price of fertilizer and labor costs are also increasing, and the price of one of the staple grains rice has not risen significantly, so in general, the income of farmers has not increased significantly, which makes its consumption power in pork limited. Although the price of pork has been reduced, it still cannot be moved.
The current pig price has fallen below the cost of all pig farmers, not only the professional fattening farmers who purchase piglets are losing money, the secondary fattening pig farmers are losing money, and now even the self-breeding pig farms are losing money.
In the first half of the year, Makihara shares, which also made profits of more than 10 billion yuan, also began to lose money, according to the understanding that the fattening cost of Makihara was controlled at about 7.5 yuan, and the current pig price can reach 7.5 yuan, there is only one region in Hainan, not to mention 7.5 yuan in other regions, and 7 yuan in many places cannot be reached. In the latest pig price on September 11, Heilongjiang and Yunnan have fallen below 6 yuan. Shandong, Jilin, Liaoning, Guizhou and other regions are also falling below the edge of 6 yuan. Considering the current pig price and feed price, pig farmers will lose 500-900 yuan per pig.
Due to the high market in the previous two years, most pig farmers have made money, in the face of losses, many pig farmers are still standing up, and firmly believe that the price of pigs can rise in the future, because they have money in their hands to temporarily lose money. But there is only one final result of this, that is, everyone's loss is getting bigger and bigger, when they can't afford to lose, they will face a large number of pigs eliminated, the rapid decline in production capacity, then the pig price will soar again, and the price of pork will also rise.
At present, all regions actively respond to the call of the National Development and Reform Commission, vigorously collect and store reserve meat, and the vice minister of agriculture and rural affairs also calls on everyone to buy more pork and eat more pork, because the official is worried that if the pig price continues to fall, pig farmers will be forced to leave the pig industry after deep losses, and the rapid decline in production capacity will lead to a sharp rise in pig prices.
And I think the first time node of the pig price surge may appear before and after the Spring Festival, first of all, the Spring Festival, the peak of pork consumption on pork consumption, the boosting effect is by no means comparable to the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, such as small holidays, many families in the Spring Festival 7 days of pork consumption can reach their own monthly pork consumption.
Secondly, the current market is still pressing a lot of five or six hundred pounds of large fat pigs, pig prices have continued to be depressed for 3 or 4 months, if it continues to fall or maintain a low level of operation, it will greatly affect the mentality of pig farmers, this part of the pig price will be listed in 10-11 months, once this part of the big pig enters the market, then the pig price will continue to plummet, followed by the small standard pig out of the barn, the small standard pig out of the bar will be 1-2 months in advance of the follow-up production capacity, This led to a decline in the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival.
The combination of the two factors may lead to the price of pork during the Spring Festival rising from the current twelve or three yuan to twenty yuan. If everyone now grasps the need to eat pork, it will help the pig price to remain at a relatively high level, and the pig farmers will not have a sharp decline in capital preservation or less loss of production capacity, so that the price of pork during the Spring Festival will not rise sharply.