On November 2, the topic of #Moutai wine prices plummeting across the board ##Moutai wine prices continuing to fall rushed to the hot search.
According to a number of media reports, the price of various types of wine in Moutai has fallen to varying degrees in the past ten days. On November 1, the price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles has dropped from 2825 yuan on October 20 to 2680 yuan. The price of Feitian original boxes in 2020 and 2021 also fell from 3800 yuan on October 20 to 3500 yuan. The first to be reported to cancel unpacking the fine Moutai and The Year of the Ox Zodiac wine also fell from 4380 yuan and 4680 yuan on October 20 to 4000 yuan and 4200 yuan. Among them, the price of Moutai in the Year of the Sheep and the Year of the Horse fell the most, falling by 1,000 yuan and 1,500 yuan respectively. The Year of the Ox zodiac wine once sold to more than 7,000 yuan during the year, and the current decline has exceeded 40%.
Guizhou Moutai stock price also rose slightly on the day, as of the close of 1804.64 yuan / share, the highest intraday touched 1844.22 yuan / share after the beginning of the decline, a single-day increase of 0.09%. After reaching its recent high in mid-October, Kweichow Moutai shares began to fall continuously, and the stock price fell below the 1800 yuan mark at one point.
In fact, since the entire liquor sector entered the peak season, there has been no expected strong performance. As of the close of trading on November 2, CSI Liquor has fallen by 23.02% from a high of 21412.21 this year. As the leader of liquor, Guizhou Moutai has fallen by about 30% from the highest price at the beginning of the year, the stock price has fallen by 777 yuan, and the total market value has shrunk from 3.27 trillion yuan at the highest to 1 trillion yuan.
For the sluggishness of the capital market, there are also different voices in the industry. Some people pointed out that the continued slump in the stock price of Moutai in Guizhou is related to its recent introduction of a number of policies, in addition, the sharp reduction of the largest holding fund company is also an important reason. There is no shortage of voices in the industry that the slowdown in the growth rate of net profit in the first three quarters of Guizhou Moutai and the overall decline of the liquor sector have caused some investors to lose confidence.
Judging from the three quarterly reports just released by Moutai in Guizhou, although it has achieved double growth in revenue and net profit, it also reveals a signal of slowing growth.
Judging from the specific data, in the first three quarters, Guizhou Moutai achieved revenue of 74.642 billion yuan, an increase of 11.05% year-on-year, and achieved a net profit of 37.266 billion yuan, an increase of 10.17% year-on-year. Among them, in the third quarter, the revenue was 25.555 billion yuan, an increase of 9.68% year-on-year, and the net profit was 12.612 billion yuan, an increase of 12.35% year-on-year.
Guizhou Moutai third quarter 2021 financial data
From 2017 to 2021, the net profit of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters was 12.466 billion yuan, 19.984 billion yuan, 24.734 billion yuan, 30.455 billion yuan and 37.266 billion yuan, respectively, with an increase of 60.31%, 23.77%, 23.13%, 11.07% and 10.17% respectively. By comparing with this year's data, it is not difficult to see that although the net profit of Moutai in Guizhou has been growing in recent years, the growth rate has slowed down significantly.
In this regard, industry insiders said that the slowdown in the growth rate of net profit in Guizhou Moutai is actually expected. And if Guizhou Moutai insists on not raising the price of products, the future net profit growth rate will basically not be much improved.
At present, the factory price of Feitian Moutai is only 969 yuan / bottle, and the official retail price is 1499 yuan / bottle, but in the terminal market, the price of bulk Feitian Moutai is always hovering around 2700 yuan / bottle, even if the price has continued to fall recently, the terminal market price of Feitian Moutai is still more than 2600 yuan. The profit generated by the huge price difference does not belong to Kweichow Moutai.
Xiao Zhuqing, a Chinese consumer goods marketing expert, once proposed that Moutai in Guizhou should increase the ex-factory price of products and increase the retail price to about 2,000 yuan / bottle. This has two advantages: on the one hand, it can greatly compress the profit margin of the channel and reduce the motivation for speculation and speculation. On the other hand, it can also increase the revenue and net profit data of Moutai in Guizhou.
As for whether Moutai will increase the ex-factory price, there are also many opinions in the industry. Public information shows that Guizhou Moutai made a price increase on the factory price and retail price of Feitian Moutai in 2018, increasing the factory price to 969 yuan / bottle and the retail price to 1499 yuan / bottle, since then, the two official quotations of Feitian Moutai have not changed again.
Sauce wine due to its own characteristics, the production cycle is long, generally from production to listing to go through 5 years, coupled with limited production capacity, Feitian Moutai is always in a bottle of difficult to find situation. This also makes Feitian Moutai a "hard currency" in the liquor market, and the terminal price is speculated again and again, which is always high.
In theory, expanding production capacity is a feasible way for Guizhou Moutai to achieve rapid performance growth. However, due to geographical location, it is difficult to expand production capacity significantly. In a short period of time, the profits of the channel side cannot flow to Moutai in Guizhou, which has also become a difficult problem for Moutai in Guizhou.
However, Kweichow Moutai is also trying to curb scalpers from disrupting the market through other means, such as the previously boiling cancellation of bookings and wine purchases and 100% unpacking policies. Some people say that vigorously rectifying scalpers may be Guizhou Moutai paving the way for future product prices.
Although the current profits of Feitian Moutai in the terminal retail market have far exceeded the profits obtained by Guizhou Moutai enterprises themselves, due to the pressure of public opinion and prices, some insiders have analyzed that in a short period of time, the probability of Guizhou Moutai raising prices to Feitian is still relatively low.
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Words | proud of the king
Editor| Kong Yaoyao
Image source| Oriental Fortune, Guizhou Moutai Financial Report, Visual China, Guizhou Moutai official Weibo