You may not know that you are going through "World War III"

What is the form of war? What dimension? If you still imagine knives, guns and sticks working together, airplanes and cannons flying all over the sky, then you may be underestimating war, especially world wars.

Imagine that at the end of the Qing Dynasty, when the Eight Banners soldiers were still practicing swords, training riding and shooting, and demonstrating the formation with ice plays, the Rifle Gun Brigade and the mobile fleet in the Western world were already on their way to the mouth of the Pearl River; once there was a "generational" or "latitude" difference between the two sides of the war, there was no way to rely on traditional advantages, so that in that era, the Qing Empire, which had relied on centralized power and population advantages to dominate the East, could only be reduced to resisting all imagination in the face of industrial aggression beyond cognition.

The reason why the Chinese people's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression was won greatly was not only because we finally won the victory in this just war by relying on the strength of the stubborn resistance of the whole nation, but also because it was a struggle of agricultural China to defeat industrial Japan, and the overcoming of the "intergenerational" disadvantage made our victory particularly singable and weeping, and it also reminded us that after "9/18", the Japanese invaders "destroyed and decayed" in the land of China; it also made us soberly see. What really made Japan abandon all stubborn resistance was the two atomic bombs that far exceeded the imagination of the Japanese, and the intergenerational difference and latitude transition between atomic war and early industrial war like galactic distance made fascist Japan clearly understand that the gap between "industry and agriculture" may be only the distance from the earth to the moon; the resistance is even too late to imagine.

From the beginning of Columbus's discovery of the New World, our world has not been far from war for a moment, from the initial war than the sword, to the "Anglo-Spanish War" began to compare ships, and then to the "Napoleonic War" began to compare strategy, the aircraft, tanks, and machine guns of the First World War made the war begin to blur the flesh and blood, and to the beginning of the atomic war of the Second World War, mankind began to realize that war will bring mankind from flesh and blood to ashes; until today, countries all over the world are trying to find ways to ensure how to win the next war. Or at least survive the war, it may be thermonuclear war, three-dimensional war, space war, cyber war and other forms, human fear with the escalation of war and exponential growth, so that countries like the United States, which absolutely can not afford to lose war, find ways to use all means to ensure the absolute superiority of military power. It can be said that the tragic memories of the past wars and the terrible imagination of future wars are affecting almost all human decisions and behaviors, and also profoundly affecting the way and psychology of human beings view and treat the world.

However, war has evolved much faster than humans have prepared for it.

Since the 1990s, when the issue of "non-traditional security" has been raised and gradually clarified, the concept of war has begun to break away from the shackles of the original military field and begin to extend to the various dimensions that constitute security issues. With the diversity of the field and form of war, the composition and relationship between the warring sides are also quietly changing, although the war between countries or between clans still exists, but it has been classified into the category of traditional and low-dimensional war, and the absolute superiority of the United States and the balance of nuclear terror between major powers have also made it less and less likely that this traditional war will evolve into a world war, so a world war in the field of non-traditional security is quietly brewing.

Remember the distant crisis of the "Millennium Worm" at the end of 1999? Although that crisis did not ultimately cause a global catastrophe, but the worldwide panic has revealed the possible threat of "world war in the non-military field", looking back today, perhaps the "Millennium Worm" crisis is just a small matter, but the evolution of war has clearly told us that war has moved from uncertain outcomes to uncertain objects, and who will fight in the future war is the most important question.

At this point, do you still think that World War III must be to fly missiles between several major powers? Not necessarily! There may be some debate if it must be analyzed from the perspective of the inherent definition of world war, "world war is a global war between opposing groups of countries"; but if the outcome of the world war is "profoundly influential on the world political and economic pattern", then the "new crown virus" has done it.

Since the development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it has swept almost every country and every piece of land on the earth, which is a pity, even in World War I and World War II, it has not reached such a "broad" coverage.

There are several reasons why we can define the COVID-19 pandemic as a "worldwide non-military war":

First: In response to the new crown epidemic, countries have launched organizational mobilization work affecting the whole society; war, especially modern war, requires a strong mobilization capacity of social organizations, which is already common knowledge about war issues; looking back at public health events such as SARS and avian influenza in previous years, the requirements of the new crown epidemic in the mobilization capacity of social organizations are obviously not at the same level; moreover, in addition to the action mobilization and management of social members, it is necessary to integrate the entire social production and operation activities into unified coordinated management. In order to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of countermeasures; all this is similar to the requirements for a modern war, imagine "asking all the people to avoid danger urgently, maintain calmness, unify their thinking, obey commands, and at the same time mobilize capable production enterprises to quickly put into production emergency materials, concentrate on ensuring the needs of the front line, deploy professional teams on the front line, and rapidly strengthen international cooperation".

Second: the sustained development of the new crown epidemic has vividly expressed the requirements of the war on the ability to supply; "fighting a war is to fight logistics", which is an eternal truth; in the era of cold weapons, grain and grass are the hearts of the army, and the requirements for supply capacity in modern warfare have increased simultaneously with the growth of consumption capacity; it can be said that the supply capacity is one of the key capabilities that determine the outcome of the war, and even in the protracted war, it is the most critical decisive ability; the most obvious of the new crown epidemic is masks, ventilators, Protective clothing and other materials directly related to epidemic prevention and medical treatment are replenished, which has already caused many countries to fall into a shortage of supplies and material panic, not to mention that the supply capacity tested by the battle against the new crown epidemic is far from simple. The continuous stagnation of economic and social activities has plunged the basic living materials of all societies into a sudden supply crisis, on the one hand, the stagnation of production, on the other hand, the shrinkage of logistics, many countries have material supply problems, such as the "toilet paper crisis" in Western countries caused by the new crown epidemic, and the global food crisis that the new crown epidemic may lead to, which is superimposed with panic buying, and the supply problem will be more serious. In addition, the supply capacity of the economic and financial fields will have a far-reaching impact on the economy and society, and the successive circuit breakers of the US stock market and Trump's $2 trillion economic rescue plan are the game between consumption and supply in the economic field; in history, the examples of wars dragging down the economy abound, and those who can withstand it have the opportunity to turn over.

Third: the economic and social costs of the COVID-19 pandemic to the international community are no less than a war; even if you look at the current situation, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on tourism, aviation, entertainment, catering, hotels, retail, wholesale, logistics, real estate, and manufacturing in countries around the world; according to Wall Street's predictions, the coronavirus pandemic will cause global economic losses of more than $5 trillion in the next two years, while the economic losses of World War II are also more than $5 trillion, even if inflation is removed. Purchasing power and other factors, the economic cost of the new crown epidemic can not be underestimated, not to mention that today's society is in a critical period of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, the opportunity cost of the new crown epidemic to the global science and technology social process is difficult to accurately estimate; on the other hand, who can give a price assessment of the death and health losses caused by the epidemic?

Fourth: The worldwide ideological changes and value conflicts brought about by the new crown epidemic are like wars; World War I is a conflict of interests and values between old and new capitalist countries; World War II is a value conflict between fascism and anti-fascism; the Korean War and the Vietnam War under the background of the Cold War are two ideological conflicts. Although COVID-19 is not triggered by some kind of conflict of values, the collision of values and social rift it has brought in some countries is comparable to the impact of war. For example, the speculation and attitude of European society, especially Italy, Spain, France and other countries at different stages of the development of the epidemic; for example, the improper handling of the epidemic under the US political system, as well as the disharmony between the political tradition of the "election theory" in the United States and the people's life and life demands, will exacerbate the conflict of values in American society; in the United States, the drama of "war and anti-war" has been the core issue of society since the Civil War, which is similar to the current debate on "resumption of work and non-resumption". The biggest highlight of this worldwide ideological change is undoubtedly China's excellent performance in the anti-epidemic war, and the soft power improvement brought about by international assistance, and the "community of human destiny" has become part of the core values of the international community, which is likely to be the biggest global ideological change after the war.

Fifth: The role of war on the reconstruction of the international order will most likely occur after the global anti-epidemic war; of course, the anti-epidemic war is not equivalent to a hot war, and the speed and ability to break the original international order are not as great as the hot war; after World War I, the Versailles Washington system was rapidly established, and it was shattered by World War II twenty years later; the Yalta system was rapidly established after World War II, and was disintegrated by the end of the Cold War more than forty years later; after the end of the Cold War, the United States quickly established a world pattern of "one superpower and many powers" by virtue of unilateralism, military hegemony and the dollar system. It has controlled the international process for nearly three decades, but with the development of multipolarization, the rise of emerging economies and the depletion of U.S. credit by the Trump administration, the U.S.-based international order has begun to crack. I dare not say that the new crown epidemic can definitely crush the hegemonic system of the United States, but the effect of accelerating the reconstruction of the international order will occur. For example, the recent "Saudi arabia and Russian oil dispute" in the context of the recent new crown epidemic, on the surface, it seems to be a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the oil supply problem, but in fact, it is the US shale oil industry that is injured, which makes the US financial market attached to oil dive, and the petrodollar system can be described as a heavy blow to the foundation of US hegemony. The world is well aware that as the NEW CROWN epidemic in the United States continues to worsen, the U.S. economy has been hit hard, and the ghost of the Great Depression hovers over the United States, the United States will once again use the dollar's status as the world's currency to pass on the crisis to other countries that are also experiencing economic difficulties; especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the countries of the world that have seen the face of the United States are eager to get rid of the status of the receiver, and everyone understands that this flood will only be bigger than ever.

Sixth: The intergenerational and dimensional differences between the two sides of the war make the traditional military superiority disappear and conform to the rules of war evolution; just like "Industrial Japan vs. Agricultural China", just like "Atomic America vs. Industrial Japan", the intergenerational and dimensional differences of war make the so-called advantages lose their role in an instant; just like the Zhizi and water droplets in "The Three-Body Problem", there is also the "two-way foil" that cannot be imagined at all, can you say that human space battleships are not strong? Can you say that the energy of the entire solar system is not fragrant? It can only be said that in the face of higher dimensional attacks, we are still too naïve. The aircraft carrier that was once a symbol of US military hegemony was also attacked by the new crown virus, and the four aircraft carriers of the Pacific Fleet were all nested; it can be said that no country in the traditional sense of military strength has been able to strike so accurately and efficiently against the US military; the cruelty of intergenerational war may lie in this, no matter how big your traditional advantage is, how many years of efforts have been accumulated to solve a hundred well-trained big knife soldiers, it may be a shell thing. Light three-body droplets gracefully pass through one giant space battleship after another. This kind of thing does not only exist in science fiction and literary imagination, but how similar the uncatchable chiko and the uncatchable virus are to us.

When and where the new crown epidemic began, there is still no conclusion, even from the beginning of 2020, it has been more than a hundred days now; more than a hundred days, people in the war against the epidemic is difficult, but from the perspective of the spread of the epidemic, more than one hundred days, more than two million infected people can not be described as rapid. After all, other countries in the world are different from China, with different systems, different capabilities and more different confidences; but it is certain that the longer the war against the epidemic lasts, the stronger the ability to form real war damage. Although it is unlikely that the international community will truly recognize this anti-epidemic war as "World War III", it has enough destructive power and influence to be given the attention and response of the scale of the world war.

Mankind has long known that war is not only between people, we have fantasized countless times about the war between man and aliens, the war between man and robots, the war between man and Godzilla; war, as the highest form of contradiction struggle and the most violent means, its essence is to warn people that contradictions are still irreconcilable, but they must fight to the death. The war between humans and viruses has existed for tens of millions of years, the Black Death, the Spanish flu, Ebola, avian flu may not have the same type and source of viruses, but they have all been fierce wars between two contradictory sides, and in this process, human beings may have won, but they have never won.

Where does our conflict with the virus come from? You may think that humans have not provoked the virus, but in fact, it is true that the unbridled behavior of human beings, especially the aggression against nature and other species, has affected the original, harmless living environment and way of living of the virus, and the source of this contradiction is still in human beings themselves.

War has begun, we look forward to the victory of mankind, but at the same time we expect that mankind will get enough warnings and lessons, at least understand that the fate of mankind depends on human behavior, but is not controlled by human willfulness, after all, who is the master of the earth, human beings have only been clamoring for tens of thousands of years, and those creatures who have lived on the earth for hundreds of millions of years have always laughed and said nothing, and occasionally showing a small hand is enough to cause chaos in the world.