Basic events
The company released 21Q3 results: 21Q1-Q3 company achieved revenue of 14.402 billion (+47.99%, compared with 19Q3+51.04%), attributable net profit of 2.113 billion (+45.73%, compared with 19Q3+53.35%), deducting non-attributable net profit of 2.014 billion (+45.17%, compared with 19Q3 +55.97%), of which 21Q3 achieved revenue of 6.202 billion (+30.12%, compared with 19Q3+54.07%), Attributable net profit was 1.101 billion (+14.57%, compared with 19Q3+47.71%), and net profit after deduction of non-attributable net profit was 1.068 billion (+13.12%, compared with 19Q3+53.45%), which was an eye-catching performance.
Investment essentials
Q3 revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations, wardrobe + accessories continued to increase
During the period, the company continued to promote the business model of large home, continued to promote the transformation of dealers into customized core + accessories + door and wall system integration sales, large customer single value, sub-product split:
21Q1-Q3 kitchen cabinet revenue of 5.395 billion (+30.63%), accounting for 37.80%. Among them, 21Q3 revenue of 2.189 billion (+12.7%) The company continued to activate retail distributors to carry out business cooperation with local installation enterprises, deeply promote the "full kitchen customization" model, and increase the matching rate of kitchen appliances.
21Q1-Q3 wardrobe revenue of 5.736 billion (+50.53%), accounting for 40.22%. Among them, 21Q3 revenue of 2.631 billion (+35.4%), from "T5" to "T8", bedding, curtains, lighting and other accessories sales increased, the proportion increased, providing overall bedroom solutions.
21Q1-Q3 bathroom revenue was 693 million (+38.11%), accounting for 4.86%. Among them, the revenue of 21Q3 was 282 million (an increase of 13.6% over 20Q3).
21Q1-Q3 wooden door revenue of 837 million (+72.49%), accounting for 5.87%. Among them, 21Q3 revenue was 381 million (an increase of 51.7% over 20Q3). Bathroom + wooden doors account for more than 10% of the total, and the category integration is smooth.
21Q1-Q3 Other (more than 90% of the supporting products) revenue of 1.599 billion (+125.94%), accounting for 11.25%. Among them, the revenue of 21Q3 was 656 million (an increase of 91.6% over 20Q3).
Dealers are willing to do so, Q3 stores are speeding up, and retail same-store growth is strong
Retail: 21Q1-Q3 distribution revenue of 11.1 billion (+50%, single Q3 + 29%), direct revenue of 367 million (+57%, single Q3 + 30%), from the number of stores, 21Q3 kitchen cabinet / wardrobe / wooden door / bathroom / Ou BoLi increased by 23/101/91/115/19 from the beginning of the period, a total of 349 net increase over the beginning of the year, 21Q3 single quarter to open more than 200 stores, the overall pace of store opening accelerated, showing dealer confidence. The company has no longer assessed the C-end of the store, the growth is mainly driven by the same store: 21Q1-Q3 single store revenue (the first three quarters) is about 1.54 million yuan (+44%, +43% over the same period in 2019), showing a strong endogenous growth momentum.
Bulk: 21Q1-Q3 bulk revenue of 2.634 billion (+44%, single Q3 +33%), accounting for 18.3% of revenue. During the period, due to the intensification of bulk price competition, the rise in raw material prices, the adjustment of freight caliber and other factors, the gross profit margin was 30.42% (35.89% in 20 years).
The investment promotion & orders of the whole large home continue to exceed expectations, and the new brand Star Home set sail
As of the end of September, the number of the company's large home stores was close to 700 (nearly 50 new stores were opened in the Q3 single quarter), and we estimate that the Q3 orders maintained a doubling growth trend, and we are optimistic that the annual growth exceeded expectations. The company has significant advantages in designing/placing systems, product portfolios, dry warehouses to solve the last 1 km problem, etc., and the two-way drainage effect is remarkable, and the profit margins of the installation enterprises are relatively rich and the willingness to cooperate is strong. In April, the "StarHomes Star Home" brand was officially introduced to the market (completely replaced by Ou Bo Li), and the original Ou Pai decoration large home formed "one body and two wings", and is expected to become a new volume point.
Changes in revenue structure have led to a decline in profitability, strong cost control capabilities, and high increase in advance receipts
Q3 single quarter gross sales difference of 26.75% (year-on-year -5.26pct), mainly due to the increase in raw material prices, low gross profit of the proportion of bulk & accessories; management + R & development expense ratio of 7.09% (year-on-year - 1.49 pct), the scale effect is significant; net operating cash flow of 1.043 billion yuan (year-on-year - 33pct), mainly accounts receivable & notes (1.24 billion, year-on-year +43%), inventory (1.22 billion, year-on-year +53%) increased more Pre-receipt + contract liabilities totaled 2.436 billion (+73% year-on-year), ensuring Q4 retail performance.
Earnings forecasts and valuations
As the leader in customization in the industry, Opal takes the lead in Q3 growth, the Matthew effect is remarkable, strong information investment & supply chain efficiency improvement consolidates competitive strength, and gradually extends soft decoration support from the whole house customization to provide a real one-stop solution, optimistic about long-term share increase. We expect the company's revenue in 21-23 years to be 204/244/28.9 billion, +38.4%/19.4%/18.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother is 28.17/33.96/4.071 billion, +36.6% /20.6% /19.9% year-on-year, corresponding to PE of 26.02X/21.58X/18X, respectively.
Risk Warning
Real estate regulation exceeded expectations, and the growth of new products did not meet expectations
