The 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) opened in Glasgow, UK, on October 31, local time. It was the first climate conference since the Paris Agreement entered its implementation phase and was seen by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as humanity's "last chance to turn things around".
△Screenshot of COP26 official website
As the country with the largest greenhouse gas emissions in history, whether the United States can eliminate the bad impression left by the previous government's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement at this meeting and effectively fulfill its responsibility to reduce emissions has attracted much attention.
On his first day in office, US President Joe Biden announced his return to the Paris Agreement and made one commitment after another to address climate change. Especially in the face of next year's midterm elections in Congress, Biden, who has suffered a series of defeats in all aspects of domestic and foreign affairs and has a declining support rate, hopes to use this meeting to save the political decline. However, judging from the current situation, the tense political reality in the United States may be difficult for him to achieve.
"$555 billion is not less, but first it has to be passed"
On the day he set off for Europe, Biden rushed to unveil the framework of the long-delayed $1.75 trillion budget spending bill, including $555 billion in investments to combat climate change and develop clean energy.
△ The Washington Post's illustration of the $1.75 trillion budget spending bill shows that $555 billion to address climate change and develop clean energy is the largest share.
Biden had hoped that Congressional Democrats would use a "budget settlement" process that required only a simple majority vote to pass the bill on the same day, adding some capital and confidence to his participation in the gas change conference. However, due to serious differences within the party, the vote had to be postponed.
President Biden's package of budget spending bills, which was originally set at $3.5 trillion, has been opposed by the republican party as a whole. But what caught Biden off guard was that there were also different voices within the Democratic Party, with opposition coming mainly from Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Senator Kirsten Sinaema of Arizona. It was because of their pressure that the size of the bill halved to $1.75 trillion. Even so, it is still uncertain whether they will be able to get their support.
The Guardian: Without the approval votes of Manchin (right) and Sinaima (left), the bill could not have been passed in the Senate of the 50:50 Congress of the two parties.
Not only has the amount of the bill shrunk dramatically, but the gold content of the gas change content has also been greatly reduced. Also because of the obstruction of these two key Democratic senators, a key element of Biden's climate agenda, the $150 billion Clean Power Performance Program (CEPP), is close to being sentenced to death.
Public opinion generally believes that although Manchin and Sinaema oppose CEPP on the grounds that the expenditure is too large, they are actually thinking more about their own political and economic interests. For example, The state of West Virginia, represented by Manchin, is an important energy state in the United States, and he himself has a lot of interests in the coal industry.
BBC: As Biden travels to Scotland for a climate summit, Manchin and Sinaema will decide the limits of what he can do on behalf of the United States – and perhaps whether he can make any commitments.
For Biden's existing "climate ambitions", the US media is also generally skeptical. The Atlantic pointed out that the $555 billion in the budget package spending bill will be the largest investment in the energy transition in the United States, "the money is indeed a lot, and it will bring considerable benefits, but it must be passed first."
△ Screenshot of the Atlantic Monthly report
The Los Angeles Times' commentary article said the sabotage of Biden's climate agenda by deliberate obstructionists and fossil fuel advocates in the U.S. Congress was disappointing because everyone would be concerned about how the U.S. was performing. "Biden has an ambitious plan, but with promises alone, the United States will never be able to achieve its goals."
△ Screenshot of the Los Angeles Times report
"We have no bargaining space anymore"
As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases in history, the credibility of the U.S. government in tackling climate change has been questioned by all sides. In order to save the United States from the international credibility lost during the Trump administration, Biden took office bent on rebuilding the so-called "American leadership" on climate issues.
Wall Street Journal: Biden's climate adviser Gina McCarthy said the White House is scheduled to release a long-term strategic report on November 1, local time, reiterating Biden's commitment to achieve U.S. net zero emissions by 2050. The report was partly intended to show world leaders at the Glasgow Gas Change Conference that despite the political divisions in Washington, Biden's goals were achievable.
However, the "infighting" of this party not only makes Biden go to Glasgow "empty-handed", but also exacerbates the international community's long-standing distrust of the United States, and ultimately can make Biden "return empty-handed".
The latest issue of National Geographic pointed out that the United States cannot pass a reasonable scale of response to gas change in Congress, which is basically equivalent to "tying a hand behind its back" when solving the problem. The article quoted climate policy experts as saying that this approach of the United States "undermines the collective leadership that the carbon emitters need to show."
△ Screenshot of the National Geographic magazine report
Also questionable is the "just talk and no do" of U.S. climate assistance to developing countries. This is also considered to be another major uncertainty about the success or failure of this COP26 conference.
At the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, developed countries pledged to provide at least $100 billion a year to developing countries to tackle climate challenges by 2020. But more than a decade later, the amount of aid that developed countries have cashed so far is far from up to standard. Among them, the United States owes the most debts.
According to data released by the Uk's independent think tank Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the United States contributed only 4% of its share of aid in 2017 and 2018, the worst among developed countries.
After the Trump administration announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, it stopped contributing to the United Nations Green Climate Fund. When the Biden administration took office, it promised to double its original aid to $5.7 billion, and later announced that it would double it to another $11.4 billion, but this still needs to be approved by Congress. With the bipartisan struggle in the United States intensifying, it is still unknown when this money will be cashed.
△ Screenshot of Bloomberg report
For the prospects of Biden's climate plan, the American people are also not optimistic. According to a recent poll conducted jointly by the American Public Broadcasting Corporation (PBS), npr, and Maryst College, half of respondents believe that the current U.S. policy on climate change is not strong enough.
△ Screenshot of the official website of Marist College
In the Eyes of the New York Times, Biden's proposal at the Glasgow climate conference is nothing more than an unfinished U.S. plan to reduce emissions, and the U.S. Congress and the country as a whole are still hesitating about the possible costs of such an agenda. But the reality is that "we have no room for bargaining to deal with the increasing climate change."
Screenshot of the New York Times report
Source: Global News+