When the Shijiazhuang land market , which "closed" for half a year , "opened the door again", excited and curious people looked into the door, but did not expect this embarrassing situation.
In fact, when the door was reopened, Shijiazhuang was in a hurry. From October 19 to 29, in 10 days, the "four districts of the city" listed for sale of 18 plots of land, with an area of 835,900 square meters, that is, 1,254 acres. It should be known that last year, the "four districts of the city" listed 72 cases of land, an area of 2.6503 million square meters, about 3975 acres. That is to say, the scale of the land plots listed for sale in the above 10 days is more than 30% of last year's year.
Such a "rush to the red face" tide of land supply, you say "completely abandoned for half a year, now you have to hurry", but you say that behind this is "no hurry", you believe, I don't believe it.
Let's say another number: the starting price of these 18 pieces of land is 11.786 billion yuan, even if it is a "big concession", the total reserve price is less than 1/3 of the transaction amount of the "four districts of the city" last year, which is higher than the previous "30%".
If Shijiazhuang in these 10 days is put together with the "centralized land supply" of the 22 key cities in the country that are in full swing and the topic of constant controversy, you can find that the power of this land supply tide can actually "kill" at least half of the cities.
However, since it is very "appropriate" to participate in this round of national land supply tide, then Shijiazhuang is naturally not exempt from vulgarity, and the dismal market reflects the appearance of the land market, and Shijiazhuang cannot escape.
Directly speaking of the results: 11 pieces of land were auctioned off, covering an area of 462,700 square meters, about 694 acres, accounting for 55% of the total. I turned over the streaming auction situation of the "four districts of the city" last year, although the scale is not small, 19 blocks, an area of 626,100 square meters, about 939 acres, but now the 10-day streaming scale is equivalent to more than 70% of last year's year.
Writing this, I am reminded of a story: Zhu Changluo of the Mingguang Sect reigned for only one month, and he did not even use the era name "Taichang". This bitter emperor was worried when he was the prince, afraid of being hacked. It was hard to survive the old father Ming Shen sect, just like turning over the serfs to sing, excessive indulgence in life, the result of the body was completely destroyed. Coupled with the later "Red Pill Case" toss, directly tossed his life away. Like poor Ming Guangzong, Shijiazhuang was also "overheated" this time.
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You know, 10 days ago, Shijiazhuang's land market had a "dreamy, but also very funny" opening. On that day, the much-anticipated residential and educational parts of the stone coal machine plot were listed for sale, there was no suspense, and the urban renewal company that was born only half a year old was acquired, behind which was the real estate group, oh yes, it should now be called "city development investment". No one dared to grab it.
In the final analysis, this land is a model for the new Shijiazhuang urban planning and development ideas, and it is also a new Shijiazhuang project to "play the board", the title is conspicuous, the status is important, how can it be "fake others's hand"?
Shijiazhuang, which has been in the "long drought and Ganlin", finally has some talking points worth speculating, so the transaction price of this land has been marked to 18,000 by the circle of friends, according to the funny theory of "land price ×2 = house price", the future house price of this land has been nailed to more than 35,000 by the people who eat melons. What followed was the carnival of the circle of friends and the consternation of the unknown masses.
The land price is eighteen thousand, and the head is "watted"? Although those who sell land and those who take land are "their own people", no one is a fool, how can they "pit their own people"? Taking a step back, if the land price is 18,000, and the remaining cost of the house price is less than 10,000, do you want to give this house gold and silver? Taking 10,000 steps back, even if the land price is 18,000 and the house price is 35,000, but this house price, not to mention the city investment, even if the Chinese housing enterprise TOP3 is completely self-made, there is no full certainty to sell to this price.
Although the commercial residential of this land is about 160,000 square meters, and there are commercial, public construction and educational facilities in the residential land, the transaction price of 2.356 billion yuan and the transaction unit price of 9.69 million yuan / mu are about 13,000 yuan, counting the house price, 20,000. As for the big park that has been launched first, and the old stone coal machine factory area that has not yet been determined by the renovation plan, what the business will do has not yet been a plan, and there is no basis for calculating the cost. Even if this money is also invested by the city, financial support and capital introduction will have a huge impact. Putting this kind of nonsense into the cost of commercial housing is completely groundless.
Facts have proved that the view that "land prices are 18,000 and house prices are more than 30,000" is simply vulnerable in the face of facts, but it cannot stand it as a talk of speculation. It's easy to understand the hype: the market is too cold and there's too much need for good news. But the mood is understandable, and the practice is ridiculous. Will the common people be intimidated? At all, it will not be 1202, and the people of Shijiazhuang, who have struggled with housing prices for twenty years, have professional skills and discernment ability that are not comparable to the past. At this time, take such hype to attract attention, and there are only two words in front of the people:
"Bo silly".
Two days ago, a friend of mine talked about the chicken feathers in the circle of friends after the land was sold, and said this paragraph:
With this kind of news to fool people, how can I believe that he can be reliable?
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Within a few days of the start of the land market, the "dream" was lost. One day, to be precise.
I won't say more about the process. Interestingly, 8 of the 18 plots also set up bidding rules, proposing to limit land prices and compete for other indicators, which was murderous. However, as a result, these bidding rules that guard against high land prices have not been triggered without exception, and they have all become decorations. The largest price that can be traded is the reserve price, and the transaction premium rate is only 5%, can we still expect these plots to trigger the bidding rules?
A closer analysis of these streaming lots makes it easy to categorize them. First of all, "eye-catching": the Stone Medicine Zhongnuo Zhongrun plot should be the most eye-catching of these 18 plots. And the front and back feet of the aforementioned stone coal machine plot, this piece of land has been planned, the volume of residential land has been reduced to 40%, and the park green space, education and public construction facilities have been greatly increased, and the volume ratio of residential land has been reduced to 2.0, which has also become a model for new Urban Planning and Development Ideas in Shijiazhuang.
The model is glorious, but the accounting is ruthless. Sources close to the land side told me that the saleable scale of the land has "dropped sharply" and the cost has risen. To put it more in layman's terms: this piece of land can sell fewer houses, and the increased allocation task has also pulled up the cost of house prices.
For developers, the next question is simple:
Can it be counted?
Let me add here what it means to "settle accounts". Simply put, it is the cost of land price, plus the cost of construction and security and development taxes behind, plus the profit of the developer. Developers are not philanthropists, they should make money and earn, and the final house price can be sold or not sold out in Shijiazhuang at present and in the future for a period of time, how much can it be sold, and how long it will be sold out. Data and information are aggregated and placed in front of the boss to help the boss make decisions, take or not.
This is also the problem that this land is facing the boss. Judging from the scene situation, Harvest, which has already invested money on this land, still wants to take it and also offers it. As a result, Harvest's offer was lower than the reserve price set by the government for the land. That is to say, the buyer and seller have a disagreement in price; to put it more bluntly, harvest came up with money that the seller was not satisfied with.
Knocking on the side, the plot I learned was that Harvest felt wronged, there were fewer houses that could be sold, the cost was higher, and the land price should be cheaper. But this grievance, the seller obviously does not agree.
What is the seller's reserve price, I don't know. I took the starting price of this land to calculate, its starting floor price is 8277 yuan / square meter, deduced to the house price, to sell to about fifteen thousand. However, the problem comes, look at the current second ring road, there are eleven thousand, two "spoilers", the house price of this land, the developer naturally has to weigh and weigh.
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Stone medicine this piece of land, at least there are developers on the spot to raise a bid, intend to fight. However, on the land of the Three Churches, the developer who intended to take the land did not appear at all.
Counting up, 9 of the 11 plots of land auctioned were unapproached. It's like the bride waiting for the groom to come to the door, but when it comes to picking up the kiss, don't say the groom, not even a kiss. It was so embarrassing.
However, these 9 plots of land that "did not even rob relatives" all have some origins and history, including the land of the three churches. Three years ago, I participated in the preliminary positioning of this land, and we were invited to a central enterprise, so I will not name it, and everyone on the earth knows it. For about half a year, we assisted the central enterprise to make product positioning and price prediction in this land. In other words, the central enterprise has been involved in this land at least three years ago.
However, in today's view, the lot and traffic conditions of this land are improving, especially the Xinyuan Expressway on the east side, which should now be called "Fuxing Avenue", and the renovation plan announced by the government a few days ago, which has been taken under municipal management and adjusted to the "main road of the city", will also be municipalized, and the east-west main road along the intersection will form interconnection, and break the previous closure of the highway. The land of the three churches is bound to benefit first.
However, even the hinterland of Yuhua District on the southeast second ring road, or the intersection of Fuxing Avenue and the east extension of the South Second Ring Road, has not stopped the intervention and withdrawal of this central enterprise and the central enterprise behind it.
Among them, the factors that prompted the withdrawal of the central enterprise in front of them are also embarrassing to say. The central enterprise has made a relatively informative due diligence on this land, although it is "a bit chaotic", it is still within the controllable range. However, after a long period of intervention, I found that some things could not be solved by relying on due diligence, and the "contradictions" and "problems" in the project were far more complicated than imagined. The central enterprise tried to dispose of it, but the effect was not good, if I remember correctly, it should have been decided to quit at the beginning of last year.
By the middle of last year, the land had entered the vision of another central enterprise. The characteristics and advantages of developers are different, the acceptance of plots and projects, and the ability to deal with "contradictions" and "problems" are also different. The developer in the front did not get it done, and maybe the latter one got it done. After due diligence and calculation, the central enterprise believes that this land is "somewhat done" and intends to take over. How prepared are they? What I understand is that the formation of the marketing team of this project has a eyebrow in the first half of the year, and the land acquisition is also included in the plan, until the new decision-making level in Shijiazhuang is in place. Since then, the supply of land for half a year has disrupted the central enterprise's land acquisition plan (it is said that this land was also included in the sales task set by the central enterprise at the beginning of the year).
But the greater impact is the Shijiazhuang property market that has been deserted this year. Friends close to the central enterprise told me that although the land was on the shelves this time, the central enterprise had been hesitant until a few days before the sale, and they decided to give up. In the end, they are interested in the Shijiazhuang property market at present and for some time to come:
"Lack of faith".
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The two plots of stone medicine and the three churches are the most important ones this time. Even these two pieces of land were auctioned, and the result of the dismal end was doomed to be half.
Compared with these two plots, Poly won the first piece of land in the Baojin South Street project, which is a thrill. In fact, this piece of land is the more important project reserve of Poly in Shijiazhuang at present, and it is also the best project in the Shijiazhuang area of Poly in the next two or three years, and it is also one of the keys for Poly to return to the center of the Shijiazhuang property market stage.
Previously, it was rumored that after the introduction of the residential land plot ratio of 2.0, even the previously demolished shantytown reform projects had to adjust the planning, and several shantytown reform projects that had progressed in demolition and development were trembling. Or the old question: the developer has previously taken over these projects, is according to the previous planning to do the calculation, engaged in investment, if the plot ratio is reduced, the developable commercial housing sharply reduced, how to calculate this account? What else can be done about this project? Fortunately, the north plot of the Baojin South Street project that was hung up this time was sold at the previously planned volume ratio of 2.9, respecting history and solving the problem.
At least tonight, Poly's friends can sleep peacefully, but there are more people who can't sleep. I calculated that of the 11 plots of land auctioned this time, 7 of them were supplemented by the project.
From 2013, Shijiazhuang cleaned up the "first get on the bus, then make up the ticket" project, to today, eight years, it is not over. Almost every year, most of the land plots are listed for sale, and there are projects to be supplemented. But until today, there is no supplementary certificate, which can only mean:
Either, there are "gaps" in the project land planning that cannot be crossed, such as illegal occupation of urban green space, cultivated land, and collective land, and it is difficult to apply for permits; or, developers do not want to do it, do not want to do it, and have no money to do it.
Shijiazhuang's property market has been rectified for eight years, and now it is a "deep water area", so deep that it falls into it and cannot see the bottom.
Is it that the government does not give the opportunity to make up the certificate? The answer is obviously no, otherwise why bother to put the plots of these projects on the market. But the opportunity is given to you, and you are useless. I checked it, 10 of the 18 plots of land are project certificates, two of which are the "rotten tail building projects" previously announced, marked with names, and special personnel are responsible for supervising and solving problems. As a result, one project was supplemented and repaired to the right results; the other project did not supplement the certificate and continued to "hang up the account".
The opportunity to make up for the certificate has been given, why not make up? In fact, it is not difficult to figure out: do not want to do, do not want to do, do not have money to do. Supplementary certificates require money, as little as one hundred million, as much as several hundred million. Money is not blown by the wind, the developer has money on the account to say, but there is no money on the account? Then you have to find a way to raise money. Or that sentence, the developer is not a philanthropist, to consider the profit, take the money to supplement the project, the project can still contribute to the income and profits? If the project still has listings that have not been sold, complete the procedures and complete the certificate, these listings are sold in a legal capacity, and there are transactions and payments, which is fine. But if the project is sold out, there is no goods to sell, or even sold out a few years ago, is it not pure investment to supplement the certificate?
Responsible developers will still take responsibility to the end. What would an irresponsible developer do? The results of the streaming can illustrate some problems.
In the past, few measures could cure such "old lai" behavior. If you do not cooperate, then we will communicate, supervise, and ask you to cooperate. After the new decision-making level is in place, the means are vigorous, the rotten projects are publicized, and the supplementary procedures are supervised. Not cooperating? Then go to the public prosecutor's law, sell the house without a license, and punish it according to illegal fund-raising. Judging from the effect, the developers who did not take the supplementary certificate in the past were really anxious. But in a hurry, in a hurry, whether you have no money or no money, whether you are unwilling or unwilling, the result is that the supplementary certificate of some projects still has no results.
From the current point of view, it is extremely difficult to solve the dilemma.