Financial Associated Press (Nanjing, reporter Jia Xiaoning) news, since May this year, A-share phosphorus chemical sector performance eye-catching. The Wind Phosphorus Chemical Index has increased by 112% in the past five months, and the inflow of funds has reached 164.1 billion yuan.
Ren Hairong, an analyst in the phosphorus chemical industry at Longzhong Information, told the Financial Associated Press that although the market generally values the new energy battery industry to the phosphorus chemical industry, in fact, the most fundamental reason for the overall sharp rise in the phosphorus chemical sector is the sharp rise in the price of yellow phosphorus this year. The upstream enterprises of phosphorus chemical industry with yellow phosphorus production capacity have also benefited the most this year.
However, since September, the increase in the double limit policy, especially after the expansion of the impact on Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Shandong, related phosphoric acid, iron phosphate and glyphosate enterprises, all told the Financial Associated Press reporter that affected by the double limit policy, the operating rate of enterprises is low, and the company's products are in short supply, so the price has risen sharply, driving the performance of enterprises.
From the perspective of the three quarterly reports, phosphorus chemical companies are eye-catching across the board. Among them, Xingfa Group (600141 SH), which has yellow phosphorus production capacity, achieved a net profit of 1.347 billion yuan. In addition, *ST Chengxing (600078.SH), phosphate fertilizer enterprise Liuguo Chemical (600470. Companies such as SH), glyphosate and Biotech (603077.SH) have seen sharp profits rise. In this regard, some insiders told the Financial Associated Press reporter that at present, the entire phosphorus chemical industry chain, upstream enterprises are the most profitable, of which Xingfa Group is represented, but the future enterprises with iron phosphate production capacity are the most profitable representatives.
The most profitable yellow phosphorus plate is Xingfa Group
As the upstream of the phosphorus chemical industry chain, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply this year.
At the beginning of this year, the price of yellow phosphorus was about 17,000 yuan / ton, but since the end of May, yellow phosphorus has maintained a monthly increase of at least 30%. By September, the double limit of energy consumption in many provinces in China, the overall operating rate of yellow phosphorus was compressed to about 20%. Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895SZ), Yuntianhua (600096SH), Chuanjinnuo (300505, SZ) and other phosphating enterprises have been affected by some yellow phosphorus plants and directly stopped.
St Chengxing issued an announcement at the end of September, announcing that the company's three subsidiaries, Such as Yunnan Xuanwei, Yunnan Mile and Qinzhou Chengxing, reduced production and stopped production, the supply was greatly reduced, the price of yellow phosphorus soared, and the highest price once exceeded 80,000 yuan / ton.
Ren Hairong told the Financial Associated Press that among the few yellow phosphorus production enterprises, Xingfa Group was less affected by power rationing, and the yellow phosphorus production capacity was stable and the profit was higher.
The Reporter of the Financial Associated Press also noted that the relevant person of Xingfa Group also made it clear in response to questions on the investor interactive platform on September 28 that in addition to the 50,000 tons / year yellow phosphorus production capacity of Guizhou Yong'an County Longma Phosphorus Industry Co., Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary, the driving rate of 50,000 tons / year is reduced to about 70% due to the lack of local power supply, and other production units are operating normally.
In this regard, Ren Hairong told the Financial Associated Press reporter that Xingfa Group, as a phosphorus chemical industry chain company, is also one of the few phosphorus chemical enterprises in domestic enterprises with phosphate ore resources, so it can greatly reduce the production cost of yellow phosphorus and the company's downstream phosphoric acid, phosphate, phosphate fertilizer and glyphosate, and occupy an advantage in industry competition.
According to the reporter of the Financial Associated Press, as of now, the phosphate ore reserves in the hands of Xingfa Group are about 1.2 billion tons, and the phosphate mine can be 5.3 million tons / year. In addition, Xingfa Group has built a new production capacity of 2 million tons / year of Houping phosphate mine this year, and it is expected that after the production in the second half of 2022, the company's cost advantage will be more obvious.
Benefiting from the cost advantages of phosphate ore and yellow phosphorus, Xingfa Group's revenue in the third quarter of this year was 6.728 billion yuan, an increase of 14.42% year-on-year; but the net profit was 1.347 billion yuan, an increase of 506.88% year-on-year.
Compared with Xingfa Group, the same upstream of phosphorus chemical industry, the main yellow phosphorus and thermal phosphoric acid *ST Chengxing was affected by the double limit policy, the operating rate is not high, the performance is low, and the net profit in the third quarter is 92.906 million yuan. But even so, the net profit has soared by 1525.3% year-on-year, turning a loss into a profit in one fell swoop.
The most profitable of the glyphosate plate is Hebang Bio
Glyphosate, an important downstream product of yellow phosphorus, has also risen to sky-high prices this year.
As of October 31, the domestic glyphosate quotation reached 85,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan from the high price of 71,000 yuan at the end of September.
Li Jinmei, an industry analyst at Longzhong Information, told the Financial Associated Press that the logic of glyphosate price increases in October has changed. Glyphosate prices rose sharply in September this year, mainly because the price of yellow phosphorus rose sharply in September. However, since entering October, the production capacity of yellow phosphorus Guizhou has recovered rapidly, and the domestic operating rate of yellow phosphorus has exceeded 40% in mid-October. However, glyphosate enterprises in downstream Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places have stopped working because of the double limit policy on energy consumption, so the price of yellow phosphorus has declined.
According to the monitoring of the price data of the business company industry, as of October 31, the lowest price of yellow phosphorus in China has fallen to 38,000 yuan / ton, and the high price is 46,000 yuan / ton. But after the fall of yellow phosphorus, the price of glyphosate continued to rise. Li Jinmei told the Financial Associated Press that after the price of raw materials fell, glyphosate continued to rise because of the imbalance between supply and demand. In mid-to-late October, Jiangshan Shares (600389. SH) glyphosate device combined with the double limit policy of parking and maintenance, for about half a month, the supply of glyphosate decreased. At the same time, the demand for glyphosate at home and abroad has not decreased, and the supply of products is in short supply.
Sun Tao, deputy general manager of a glyphosate production enterprise in Anhui, told the Financial Associated Press that at present, affected by the double limit, the production capacity of glyphosate enterprises is limited, and the shortage of raw materials is also more serious, and the overall production capacity has dropped by more than 30%. Therefore, at the beginning of October, the industry expected glyphosate to exceed 80,000 yuan / ton before the end of the year, and the result was not expected to rise to 85,000 yuan / ton within a month. Li Jinmei told the Financial Associated Press reporter that the current price of 85,000 yuan / ton, the profit of one ton of glyphosate can reach 36,500 yuan / ton, and the profit margin is 43%.
Glyphosate-related enterprises performed well in the third quarter of this year. Among them, the third quarterly report of Hebang Bio (603077.SH) shows that in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 3.156 billion yuan, an increase of 117.45% year-on-year; achieved a net profit of 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 750.55%. In the first three quarters, the net profit was 2.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1129.21%. In addition, Xinan Shares (600596. SH) net profit in the third quarter was 756 million yuan, an increase of 713.70% year-on-year; Jiangshan Shares (600389 SH) net profit in the third quarter was 217 million yuan, an increase of 101% year-on-year.
And phosphate fertilizer enterprises, also ushered in a highlight moment this year, Six Countries Chemical (600470 SH) related people told the Financial Associated Press reporter that phosphate fertilizer for China's agriculture is just needed, so this year's sales will not be much more than before, but due to the overall price increase of phosphorus chemical industry, this year's profit margin of phosphate fertilizer products has increased greatly compared with previous years, and the net profit of the product has increased by 61.68%, which is very rare for phosphate fertilizer companies.
The most profitable enterprises in the future are ferric phosphate enterprises
This year, the phosphorus chemical industry chain is hot, and the concept of iron phosphate is indispensable. Affected by the concept of new energy vehicles, lithium iron phosphate has been in short supply in 2021. In particular, after tesla, a new energy vehicle giant, announced in October this year that it would promote lithium iron phosphate batteries around the world, the industry's expectations for the future of iron phosphate have greatly increased. It is estimated that by 2025, the total demand for lithium iron phosphate in China is expected to exceed 2 million tons, and the compound growth rate will exceed 50%, which is one of the fastest growing industries in the future.
The expansion of iron phosphate production capacity this year is extremely obvious. Ananda (002136 SZ) and Hunan Yuneng cooperated to build a new iron phosphate production capacity of 50,000 tons, Longbai Group (002601. SZ) and Hubei Wanrun joint venture construction of 100,000 tons of iron phosphate production line, cnncy titanium dioxide (002145. SZ) is preparing to build a project with a capacity of 500,000 tons of ferric phosphate in Gansu, and Tianqi Materials (002709. SZ) 300,000 tons of new production capacity, Hezhong Technology (300477. SZ) will build a new production capacity of 30,000 tons.
Ren Hairong told the Financial Associated Press that iron phosphate represents the future of the industry, and the consumption of iron phosphate for upstream phosphoric acid this year only accounts for about 7% of the total domestic phosphoric acid production capacity. In the future, if you want to vigorously develop iron phosphate, you need the cooperation of high-purity wet phosphoric acid production capacity. "At present, domestic high-purity phosphoric acid, mainly thermal phosphoric acid, although the quality of phosphoric acid is better, but the price is too high." The iron phosphate industry, on the other hand, requires low-priced, high-purity phosphoric acid. Ren Hairong said.
According to industry price data, as of October 29, the highest price of domestic thermal phosphoric acid (85%) concentration is 15,000 yuan / ton, while the price of wet phosphoric acid is 10,000 yuan / ton. But even at current prices, the price of phosphoric acid has risen by more than 200 percent. Therefore, the biggest bottleneck in the future expansion of iron phosphate production may be phosphoric acid, which needs to be solved by the industry through technical means.
At present, The Highest Iron Phosphate Production Capacity in Ananda (002136. SH) achieved revenue of 1.452 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 87.91% year-on-year, and net profit of 129 million yuan, an increase of 152.55% year-on-year. Among them, the single quarter of the third quarter was affected by the increase in iron phosphate sales, achieving a net profit of 42.85 million yuan, an increase of 203.76% year-on-year.
In this regard, some business people told the Financial Associated Press reporter that although the current profit of iron phosphate enterprises is not high, but with the expansion of market demand, and the further increase in the production capacity of enterprises, the most profitable enterprises in the future phosphorus chemical industry chain will definitely be in iron phosphate enterprises, because from the downstream demand, iron phosphate represents the future of the phosphorus chemical industry.
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