There must be demons every Friday, and this Friday the third batch of centralized land transfer announcements came.
This year,300 soil auction plot information was all revealed.
Huan Er often says that if you understand the soil auction, you can understand the Shanghai property market: you can see the ZF planning trend upwards, and you can judge the supply of commercial housing downwards.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" >01 The joys and worries of the five new cities</h1>
This year, the authorities have repeatedly said that they will increase the supply of new houses in the five new cities, and now it seems that the promise has begun to be fulfilled.
A total of 79 pieces of ordinary residential land were supplied this year, as detailed below:
The first batch of centralized land supply
The second batch of centralized land supply
The third batch of centralized land supply
In order to facilitate the analysis, the resettlement house and the first double limited house on Changxing Island were not counted, and 7 plots of land temporarily cancelled for auction in the second batch were not excluded.
What should be taken out will always be taken out.
Among these 79 plots, 28 of the five major new cities, accounting for 35%. The determination to develop the five new cities is evident.
However, 16 of these 28 paintings are located in Lingang.
If the 7 plots cancelled are excluded, Lingang accounts for 22.22% of the city's share.
After Shanghai, one in every 4-5 real estate projects is located in Lingang, what is this support?
Moreover, many of the 72 plots are located in the old city, and more are for local users to improve.
Lingang has 400,000 residents, of which 40,000-50,000 are still students, and the improvement of the population is not extensive, so the authorities hope that the population inflow of Lingang is much greater than 25%.
These new populations are down-to-earth "Lingang people", and there are very few cases of working in urban areas and living in Lingang.
Tupai is a double-edged sword, and the favorable side is that the determination of the authorities to develop Lingang is evident.
The downside is that in the future, the massive supply of new houses will have limited prices, and there is no room for speculation in house prices.
If you know that Lingang will have more than a dozen pure new projects listed every year, and the price limit of each project is in the early 30,000 years, will the second-hand house be hyped to more than 70,000?
However, the scope of the Lingang Free Trade Zone is much larger than that of Lingang New City, so the supply of the actual five new cities needs to be greatly discounted.
Or in addition to Lingang, the other four new cities have not become the main force of population import.
A new city of 3 real estate, locals buy and buy is almost the same, will not leave a lot of opportunities for urban customers.
Where do downtown customers buy? The authorities also gave the answer.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="187" >02 The Great Hongqiao continues to be popular throughout Shanghai</h1>
Qingpu only gave the new city 3 pieces of land, where are the others?
In Xujing, in Huaxin, in Chonggu.
A total of 10 plots of land were transferred in these three areas, accounting for more than 70% of the total number of Qingpu.
Jiading is not to be outdone, the new city gave 2 pieces of land, and Jiangqiao + Nanxiang gave 3 pieces.
If you have a concept of the Shanghai area, these plates are basically the Great Hongqiao Radiation Zone.
That is, the Great Hongqiao Radiation Zone has sold more than 15 pieces of land in total.
There are 15 large hongqiao paintings + 16 lingang paintings, accounting for almost half of the city.
With such a large number of new listings, the heat of Great Hongqiao will certainly not go down.
Now that the concept of the core area has been finished, the concept of West Hongqiao has been finished, and the project of Country Garden has begun to talk about South Hongqiao as soon as it is listed.
Of course, before Country Garden came, South Hongqiao had already begun to build momentum, and its name was Qianwan.
Compared with Lingang, the advantage of Dahongqiao is that it can be integrated with the urban area, and many of the owners of Dahongqiao were originally urban residents.
Of course, the disadvantages are also obvious, and the industrial support is significantly weaker.
When the land was first transferred, the land plots in Lingang were basically equipped with different proportions of "scientific research and design land", and the residential land around the Great Hongqiao was all the same.
In fact, the industrial driving role of Great Hongqiao is very weak, the radiation is the most obvious Qingpu, Minhang, the economic growth rate in the past 6 years is below the average value of the city.
Now that Qianwan has begun to focus on building, Minhang may have improved, such as the recent introduction of biomedical companies: Yunnan Baiyao, Cinda Biomedical, and Weigao Group.
West Hongqiao, which is nearing the end of development, does not see much optimism about Qingpu's drive.
Without the support of a large number of high-quality industries, Great Hongqiao is more like a subsidiary residential area in the urban area.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="188" >03 Near the water in the suburbs</h1>
Xujing, Jiangqiao and Nanxiang radiated by the Great Hongqiao can be collectively referred to as the suburbs of the city.
The rate of land transfer in these areas is significantly higher than that of the four new cities, and everyone knows that it is much easier to import the population in the suburbs than in the new cities.
On the weekend, I went to the sales offices of the five new cities to see that most of the customers were from the local area, and the only urban customers were not all self-occupied.
Even with the subway, there is still a chasm between the five new cities and the city.
With local customers alone, demand is rather limited, and the urban area will collapse when too much land supply is added.
Unlike the suburbs, the suburbs are the main areas for middle-class customers to buy a home for the first time.
So everyone can see that the new disk of Dahongqiao is almost without exception 100 square meters of small three-bedroom.
In this way, the area of massive supply of new houses is the same as that of Lingang, and it is necessary to avoid the impact of supply on the market.
More than 80,000 and more than 90,000 friends who bought Vanke Sky City, did they think that there would be a million square meters of residential supply in the Qianwan area?
The planning drawings of Qianwan are much more beautiful than Xujing.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="189" >04 Pudong supply and demand continue to be out of balance</h1>
Since the establishment of the Lingang Free Trade Zone, the land has been independent of Pudong when it was transferred.
However, the land supply indicator is not independent.
A total of 22 plots of land were sold in Pudong, of which 16 indicators were given to Lingang.
What concept?
Pudong totaled 5.04 million people, Lingang 400,000 people, and took 16 communities.
The remaining 4.64 million people share 6 communities.
These 6 communities are basically located in the former Nanhui District: one in Hengyuan, one in Chuansha, one in Caolu, one in Huinan, and one in Yuqiao.
The absolute economic center and population gathering place of Pudong is the former Pudong New Area, and only Gaoxing supplies a plot of land.
A large number of high-income groups in Jinqiao, Waigaoqiao, Lujiazui and Zhangjiang have no new houses to choose from.
This year, Zhoupu has three or four projects, Tangzhen has two or three projects, and Senlan and Jinqiao also have new supplies.
Next year, the supply of Zhoupu is 0, and Tangzhen continues to have projects but not concentrated.
The Pudong leading area has just been determined, Zhangjiang South expansion is ready to do a big job, the Jinqiao sub-center plan has been determined, and the demand will take off immediately.
How bad is this imbalance between supply and demand?
Recently, second-hand houses have been hit hard, and house prices in many areas have fallen by more than 15%, but a large number of areas in Pudong are still strong.
Nothing else, there is an imbalance between supply and demand.
If the above factors are superimposed, next year's Pudong market will be interesting.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="190" >05 The urban area is still white-hot</h1>
The third land auction plot is all located outside the Central, and only one of the plots in the Inner Ring this year is located.
In fact, a total of 8 pieces of land were transferred in the urban area, accounting for one-ninth of the total.
The above sets of data are much lower than in previous years.
The starting point of the new Shanghainese is getting higher and higher, and there are not a few who directly enter the inner ring, resulting in a further imbalance between supply and demand.
In fact, the urban area is not without land reserves, helpless land supply indicators can not break through, Lingang, Dahongqiao after taking away the big head of the cake has not much.
As mentioned earlier, the suburban soil auction is a double-edged sword, which not only increases the development efforts but also suppresses housing prices;
For urban areas, increasing soil auctions must be the best means to control housing prices.
Therefore, as far as this year's soil auction is concerned, the supply and demand in the urban area will be more unbalanced.
Scarcity is the basis for preserving value.