Bottom-up or hedging? The position of Hong Kong stock funds is hugely divergent, with a difference of more than 30% between the beginning and the end! Was the fourth quarter a turning point?

Since February this year, Hong Kong stocks have undergone a relatively large adjustment, and the operation of Hong Kong stock funds has also been clearly divergent.

Due to the continuous decline of Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong stock funds have generally had a hard time this year, with many funds falling by more than 15% during the year, and even some funds fell by about 20% in the third quarter alone. Some fund managers frankly said in the third quarterly report: "Thank you to all investors for continuing to support our fund in such a torturous quarter, as a manager, I am very touched." ”

In the face of market correction, from the perspective of the third quarterly report, the stock positions of Hong Kong stock funds are divergent, of which the highest can reach 94.79%, and the lowest is only 64.10%, with a difference of more than 30 percentage points between the beginning and the end. Some funds choose to hedge through position reduction, some funds fall more and more to buy, and some funds choose to respond to changes unchanged and maintain the basic stability of positions and positions.

Specific operation direction, many Hong Kong stock funds have reduced the weight of the Internet sector and increased the allocation of new energy directions. Xiaomi Group-W, Meituan-W, Tencent Holdings and other Internet technology stocks have suffered a large reduction in the fund, while China Power, China Resources Power, Longyuan Power and other power stocks have received more positions.

Bottom-reading or hedging, Hong Kong stock fund position divergence

In the third quarter of this year, under the influence of policy bearishness in education, real estate, Internet and other industries, Hong Kong stocks remained weak, of which the Hang Seng Index fell by 14.75% and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 25.18%. In terms of individual stocks, Kuaishou-W fell 57.55%, Bilibili-SW, Alibaba-SW and Tencent Holdings fell by 46.97%, 35.36% and 20.99% respectively.

In the face of such a large level of adjustment, the operation of Hong Kong stock funds has diverged, some funds choose to hedge through position reduction, and some funds buy more and more, taking advantage of the adjustment to absorb a large amount of chips in the secondary market.

For example, "public offering brother" Zhang Kun's E Fangda Asia Select recently released its third quarterly report, and its stock position rose from 89.91% at the end of the second quarter to 92.29%, an increase of 2 percentage points. Specifically, the top ten heavy stocks of the fund have all been Hong Kong stocks, of which the Hong Kong stocks of China Merchants Bank have been added, making it the largest heavy stock, in addition, Tencent Holdings, Jingdong Group-SW, Mengniu Dairy and other Hong Kong stocks have been added, and China Property and Casualty Insurance and Vanke Enterprises have newly entered the list of the top ten heavy stocks selected by E Fonda Asia.

Southern Hong Kong Preferred, managed by Bi Kai, also significantly increased its stock position, and the fund's stock market value to net value of the fund increased from 88.16% to 93.55%, an increase of 5 percentage points. The sharp correction of the fast hand-W was favored by Bi Kai, the first time it was heavily positioned by the fund, it directly jumped to the first largest heavy stock, accounting for 6.71% of the net value of the fund, and Huaxia Audiovisual Education, which was affected by the policy bearishness, also received a significant increase in Bi Kai's position.

Bi Kai believes that the market adjustment in the third quarter of 2021 is relatively sharp, mainly due to the marginal slowdown in China's economic growth rate, the decline in consumption and the policy changes in some industries. Looking forward to the future, the most important policy risks to suppress Hong Kong stocks have been basically released, and the adjustment of industry policies will have a positive impact on the long-term development of China's economy.

However, compared with the courage of the above-mentioned fund managers to go against the trend and bottom out, the number of fund managers with a relatively cautious attitude is obviously more, and about 9 Hong Kong stock funds have reduced their stock positions by more than 5 percentage points in the third quarter, and even some funds have reduced their positions by nearly 20%.

For example, the stock position of Huaxia Greater China Enterprise Selection dropped sharply from 91.39% to 73.54%, a decrease of nearly 18 percentage points; in addition, many Hong Kong stock funds such as Jianxin Emerging Markets Preferred, Warburg Ghrepower, Harvest Overseas China Stocks, and Haifutong GreatEr China Select significantly reduced their positions in the third quarter, by more than 10 percentage points.

Huang Fang, a fund manager selected by Huaxia Greater China Enterprises, said in the third quarterly report that he avoided short-term policy risks and strong uncertainties in the future, and increased his holdings in companies with sustainable performance and long-term logic. Specifically, the fund reduced its holdings in Anta Sports, Li Ning, Shenzhou International and Tencent Holdings, while Haigia Medical and Country Garden Services increased their holdings.

Overall, the stock positions of the above-mentioned Hong Kong stock funds are quite divergent, among which the highest Huatai Berry Asian enterprises can reach 94.79%, and the lowest Jianxin Emerging Markets is only 64.10%, with a difference of more than 30 percentage points between the beginning and the end.

Reduce the internet, increase the warehouse new energy

In the face of market adjustment, in the direction of operation, many Hong Kong stock funds have reduced the weight of the Internet sector and increased the allocation of new energy directions.

For example, Xu Cheng, fund manager of Guofu Greater China Selection, said that in the third quarter, the Hong Kong market performed generally, and in terms of overall strategy, the fund reduced the weight of the Internet sector and increased the allocation of new energy operators. According to the third quarterly report, Tencent Holdings, the previous largest heavy position, has withdrawn from the top ten heavy stocks of the fund, China Resources Power has entered the top ten, and Datang New Energy and Longyuan Power have been added.

In the third quarter, the preferred fund managers of Jianxin Emerging Markets began to make more adjustments to the portfolio, increased the allocation of low-valued sectors of Hong Kong stocks, optimistic about the development of new energy-related sectors, and actively selected high-quality medical services and biomedical targets. Specifically, Tencent Holdings, Meituan-W, JD.com, NetEase and other Internet stocks have been transferred out of the top ten heavy positions of the fund, while China Energy Construction, China Water, and CGN New Energy have replaced them as the top three heavy stocks of the fund.

Overall, according to wind data statistics, since the third quarter, xiaomi group -W, Meituan -W, Tencent Holdings and other Internet technology stocks have suffered a large reduction in the fund. Among them, Xiaomi Group-W was the most reduced number of shares, up to 178 million shares, according to the average transaction price in the third quarter, Xiaomi Group-W was reduced by 4.469 billion yuan; if from the perspective of the total market value of the shares, Tencent was the most reduced by the fund, up to 44.203 billion yuan.

Correspondingly, Many power stocks such as China Electric Power, Huaneng International Power Shares, China Resources Power, and China General Nuclear Power have received more positions. Among them, China Power was the largest number of shares increased by the fund, up to 713 million shares, and Huaneng International Power, China Resources Power and CGN Power were increased by more than 150 million shares.

After the sharp correction, how to invest in Hong Kong stocks?

Obviously, Hong Kong stock funds have not had a good time this year, many funds fell by more than 15% during the year, and even some funds fell by about 20% in the third quarter alone. In the face of the pressure of a sharp pullback in performance, many fund managers choose to exchange investment ideas and operational ideas with investors through the three quarterly reports.

For example, He Qi, fund manager of Huatai Berry Asia Enterprises, said frankly in the third quarterly report: "Thank you to all investors for continuing to support our fund in such a torturous quarter, as a manager, it is very touching." ”

He said that Hong Kong stocks have experienced a decline in almost 3 quarters, and the main decline wave has a high probability of falling, and there will be a slow bottoming process behind it. Among them, the probability of the real estate and education sectors bottoming out is larger, and financial stocks are believed to slowly perform with the stabilization of the economy. For the most popular Internet sector in the market, the bottom is still uncertain, whether the anti-monopoly will continue, whether the overall performance will be temporarily weakened in the short term because of the impact of the policy, and whether this temporary weakening will become a long-term impact, we still need to observe and evaluate. Therefore, the entire fourth quarter may be a turning point in the future trend of Hong Kong stocks.

Policy impact is a high-frequency word in the third quarterly report of Hong Kong stock funds, Wang Shicong, a fund manager who grew up in Southern Hong Kong, said that the underlying premise of responding to policy changes is based on: We believe that the policy is not aimed at an industry, company, entrepreneur, but only for a practical social problem, and carry out multi-faceted measures to solve. So what we focus on is whether the core business model of the industry is affected after this problem is solved, or whether it will affect other industries incidentally, and how to assess the extent of the impact, we reprice each company based on the above analysis, and then make investment decisions.

For the Internet industry, Wang Shicong believes that the current situation is very similar to 2018, when the game version number was suspended for half a year, the content supervision was removed from the shelves, and a large number of APPS were removed, and the draft of the private education promotion law was introduced, but the original intention of these policies was to standardize after the rapid development of the industry to a certain stage to promote the higher level of development of the industry. Bad culture guidance, antitrust, grassroots employee interest protection, data security, etc. are launched, we believe that after the industry is standardized, these industries will be better developed in the long run, and some companies will also regain their growth momentum and flourish on a more valuable road.

Huang Fang, a fund manager selected by Huaxia Greater China Enterprises, expressed optimism about growth stocks, and she believes that the fundamentals of many growth companies have not deteriorated, but they have been affected by negative market sentiment or passive selling, resulting in a sharp decline in stock prices, and some even smashed out of the "gold pit", which is a good time to buy at a low price. Extreme pessimism and panic selling in the market is likely to be accompanied by a stage bottom, and after the pessimism, the stock prices of good industry quality companies will take the lead in rebounding.