According to a new study by an international team of scientists, global warming will lead to extreme sea-level events that occur almost every year by the end of the century and affect major coastlines around the world. The study, recently published in Nature Climate Change, predicts that extreme sea level phenomena along coastlines will become more frequent by the end of the century as temperatures rise, in about half of the 7283 sites studied.
Study co-author Dr Ebru Kirezci, a marine engineering researcher at the University of Melbourne, said areas where rapid increases in the frequency of extreme sea levels are expected include the southern hemisphere and subtropical regions, the Mediterranean and Arabian Peninsulas, the southern half of the Pacific coast of North America, and areas including Hawaii, the Caribbean, the Philippines and Indonesia.
"What we can also infer from this study is that by 2100, much of Australia's eastern, southern and southwestern coastlines will be affected, with this extreme sea level occurring almost every year," Dr Kirezci said.
"Even if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius, this increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels will occur." And these changes may come sooner than the end of the century, with many places experiencing a 100-fold increase in extreme events even before 2070."
The study's lead author, Dr. Claudia Tebardi, a climate scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, said it was not surprising that even at 1.5 degrees, sea level rise would be dramatic and would have a substantial impact on the frequency and magnitude of extreme sea levels. The researchers call for more detailed research to understand how these changes will affect communities in different countries. They added that the physical changes described in the study will have different effects on a local scale, depending on several factors, including the vulnerability of the site to rising water levels and how prepared a community is for change.
"Public policymakers should take note of these studies and work to improve coastal conservation and mitigation measures." Dr Kirezci said: "The construction of dikes and sea walls, the retreat from the coastline, and the deployment of early warning systems are some of the steps that can be taken to adapt to this change.