10 funds, 8 are not worth buying, how to choose?
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This is the 455th fund that the director has analyzed for you
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<h1 class = "pgc-h-center-line" > held by Boshi Huixing for one year</h1>
Fund code: 011056.
Fund type: partial stock hybrid type, stock assets are not less than 60%.
Fund company: Bosera Fund, the total scale of more than 700 billion yuan. Among them, the total management scale of equity and hybrid funds exceeds 140 billion yuan, and the management scale is relatively large.
Fund Manager: The fund manager of the Fund is Mr. Wu Wei, who has 13 years of experience in the securities industry and nearly 5 years of fund manager management experience, and currently manages 2 funds with a total management scale of 1.3 billion yuan.
Representative fund: Boshihuizhi Returns (004448.OF), from April 12, 2017 to the present, the cumulative yield is 175.92%, the annualized yield is 31.10%. The short-term performance is very good.
From the above net value chart, you can see a horizontal net value line, which most likely indicates that Mr. Wu Wei made a very large margin reduction.
Let's look at the annual yield again, and we also see that in 2018, the fund achieved a positive return when all indexes fell by 25%-35%, and the first half of this timing was very successful. However, we also need to see that in 2019, the yield of this fund is not so brilliant, which is also related to the slowness of adding positions after the timing.
Position features:
First, since we see from the net value chart that Mr. Wu Wei should be able to do position selection, then let's first look at the asset allocation chart of the product, from which we can clearly feel that the position fluctuations are very violent.
For example, at the end of the second quarter of 2017, the stock position was less than 30%. By the end of the third quarter, it had increased to nearly 80%, at the end of the fourth quarter, it had decreased to 30%, and then he had increased his position to more than 80% at the end of the first quarter of 2018. This is equivalent to making a very large position timing every quarter. The director has written more than 450 funds, and Mr. Wu Wei is the first fund manager to make such a big and ordinary selection, which is really rare.
We continue to look, in the second quarter of 2018 he lowered his position to 25%, followed by a position of zero in the next two quarters. This is also the phenomenon we just saw in the net value graph, the net value curve is basically a straight line.
Subsequently, at the end of the first quarter of 2019, he suddenly increased his position by more than 85%, and then at the end of the second quarter he dropped to more than 30%. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, the stock position was 53.78%.
It can be said that this is a real flexible allocation fund, which has completely achieved 0-95% of the stock position change
Second, in sync with the change of positions, the holding style is also changeable. (However, due to the very large movement of positions, this part of the data may not be accurate.) But we are still good enough to come to a similar conclusion in the context of the holding industry. ）
Combined with the above two points, Mr. Wu Wei belongs to the fluctuating players who will do large and frequent position timing + who will do style timing.
Third, let's take a look at the proportion of the top ten heavy stocks, which also shows very frequent changes.
Fourth, the turnover rate can also be expected, and it is indeed very high. 7.4 times in 2017, 10 times in 2018, nearly 6 times in 2019, 7.7 times in the first three quarters of 2020, and expected to be around 10 times for the whole year.
Fifth, the average holding time of the portfolio is 0.7 years, which is very short. Among them, the proportion of positions held for less than half a year is more than 60%, and the proportion of positions held within one year is more than 95%.
Combined with the above three points, Mr. Wu Wei belongs to the gambling player with a fluctuating concentration of shareholdings + a very short shareholding period.
Sixth, look at the position industry, the industry changes are also very unpredictable, the change is very large, the current largest two positions are pharmaceutical biology, electronics and media, a total of 60% of the stocks.
The entire portfolio is currently on a turnstep with a high degree of industry concentration + a valuation quantile level slightly below the industry average. However, Mr. Wu Wei's position has changed a lot, and what the next issue will be cannot be predicted.
Investment Philosophy and Investment Framework: In a recent interview, Mr. Wu Wei said about his investment philosophy that he is a fund manager who aims to achieve absolute returns, which is why he makes frequent position changes. When talking about how to avoid a bear market, he said that he relies on speculative discipline to make predictions by judging market liquidity and corporate earnings. Specifically, you can take a look at the following paragraph.
To be honest, the director still does not know how to make 50% of the quarterly position fluctuations through these two articles, Mr. Wu Wei did not introduce it clearly, this is a mystery, I said I can't understand it.
When it comes to making individual stock choices, Mr. Wu Wei said he would earn money for valuation expansion. Take a closer look at the following paragraph.
One sentence comment: Today's protagonist Mr. Wu Wei adopts the investment concept of absolute return, and will pay attention to the retracement under extreme markets when building the portfolio, and in the decline in 2018, he judged correctly and did a liquidation. But we also see that he will make 50% up and down position fluctuations from time to time, and I have not found a reasonable explanation for the reasons behind this operation.
For this fund, for the vast majority of investors, the director's advice is not worth buying.
However, in the absolute return portfolio, a part can be included for observation.
For investors who are unwilling to bear large fluctuations and do not mind the slow rise when they rise, it is worth buying less.
In general, this is a unique fund, but it is not suitable for the vast majority of people, and you may not be able to hold this kind of fund.
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Funds are risky and investments need to be done with caution. This article is not recommended by the fund, and the views and scores in this article are not used as the basis for trading, and are for reference only.
Not worth buying: 0% of the position in the corresponding asset class, not recommended to exceed 5%.
It is worth buying less: the proportion of positions in the corresponding asset class is 5%-10%, and it is not recommended to exceed 15%.
Worth buying: 10%-15% of the positions in the corresponding asset class, not recommended to exceed 20%.
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