On the eve of COP26, China unveiled the Carbon Peak Action Plan, which delineates a roadmap for emission reductions over the next decade

On October 26, the State Council issued the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030" (hereinafter referred to as the "Action Plan"), which put forward the "Top Ten Actions for Carbon Peaking", including green and low-carbon transformation of energy, energy conservation and carbon reduction and efficiency, carbon peaking in the industrial field, carbon peaking in urban and rural construction, green and low carbon transportation, carbon reduction in circular economy, green and low-carbon technology innovation, carbon sink capacity consolidation and improvement, green and low-carbon people, and cascade orderly carbon peaking action in various regions.

The Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on The Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Achieve Carbon Neutrality (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") issued on the 24th have clarified the three stages to be completed in 2025, 2030 and 2060. The Action Plan mainly focuses on how to achieve the carbon peaking target by 2030, that is, the two stages of 2025 and 2030, and makes overall arrangements for promoting carbon peaking.

In general, the "Opinions", as the "1" of them, clarifies the three-part phased objectives from the top-level design, and plays a programmatic role in guiding and coordinating related work. As the primary document in the "N" series of policies, the Action Plan will play a role in summarizing and leading the more than 30 "N" series policies planned for the future.

In the joint press communiqué of the second Eu-China High-level Dialogue on Environment and Climate released in October, China said that it would submit strengthened nationally determined contributions and long-term greenhouse gas low emission development strategies to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before COP26. On the eve of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), two key documents of the carbon peak carbon neutrality "1+N" policy system were released this week, which once again demonstrated China's ambition for climate governance.

<h4>The goal is specific and detailed, and the key is to land</h4>

In the view of Chai Qimin, director of the Strategic Planning Department of the National Center for Climate Change Strategic Research and International Cooperation, the core theme of the Action Plan is to implement it, not to propose new goals.

According to the Action Plan, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to lay a solid foundation for achieving carbon peaking, and by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 13.5% compared with 2020, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 18% compared with 2020. In the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" stage, it is necessary to ensure that the carbon peak target by 2030 is achieved as scheduled, and by 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by more than 65% compared with 2005, and the carbon peak target by 2030 will be successfully achieved.

According to Chai Qimin's analysis, the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is relatively specific, and most of these goals have been reflected in the "14th Five-Year Plan" of other key areas and industries to be introduced in the future. "There is a certain degree of flexibility for the '15th Five-Year Plan', and most of the goals that have not yet been introduced and have not been brewed have basically not been mentioned."

It is worth noting that compared with the 20-character working principle of "national overall planning, saving priority, two-wheel drive, internal and external smoothness, and risk prevention" put forward in the "Opinions", the Action Plan also specifically puts forward "safe and orderly, safe carbon reduction", requiring a sound and orderly and step-by-step carbon peak action to ensure safe carbon reduction.

The Action Plan includes ten major actions and more than 30 specific provisions, which describe in detail what carbon peaking is likely to do, what key problems to solve, and has a more specific statement on the intensity of implementation.

Focusing on carbon peaking actions at the national level to the region, the Action Plan points out their main lines of action for "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area", "Yangtze River Economic Belt, Yellow River Basin and National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone", and "Central, Western and Northeast Regions". The plan clearly states that it is necessary to avoid "one-size-fits-all" power rationing and production limitation or sports -- "carbon reduction", and proposes to select 100 typical cities and parks to carry out carbon peak pilot construction.

Chai Qimin said that from the main ideas and logic of the entire Action Plan, it places more emphasis on the mainstreaming of climate change policies. "The whole plan is more balanced, that is, it requires positive peak action, breakthroughs in target measures, institutional innovation, technological innovation, etc., but also emphasizes safety issues, do not rush to run, do not sports carbon reduction, and the whole country is coordinated from top to bottom."

Aiming at the layout of industries such as electric power, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, transportation and other industries, which account for 60%-70% of the country's carbon emissions, is the core main line of the Action Plan.

Zhou Dadi, member of the National Climate Change Expert Committee and vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association, told 21st Century Business Herald that the Action Plan has pointed out the direction for specific things to do in the process of achieving the "double carbon" goal in various industries and fields. "It looks down overall is very positive and encourages everyone to actively reach the peak." For example, on the issue of supply and demand, the requirements for energy conservation, the development of circular economy, industrial restructuring, and the excessive expansion of the 'two highs' are very clear. "However, in the future, the corresponding industries still need to formulate their own specific action plans."

From the point of view of expression, there are many words "above" in the target indicators. Zhou Dadi believes that the phased goals currently proposed should be regarded as a "minimum program": "The situation is changing, and the goals we have put forward in the past have also been adjusted with the situation." Therefore, all walks of life need to consider how to achieve these goals while doing a better job of green and low-carbon transformation. ”

<h4>Half of the top 10 actions mention industrial parks</h4>

Of the ten major operations, five mention the management of "parks.".

In the part of energy conservation and carbon reduction and efficiency improvement, it is proposed to implement the energy conservation and carbon reduction project of the park, focusing on the park with high concentration of high energy consumption and high emission projects (hereinafter referred to as the "two high" projects); and in the carbon peak part of the industrial field, it is also generally mentioned to build a green industrial park. There are also statements about park management in terms of transportation and circular economy. The circular economy part requires that by 2030, all key industrial parks at or above the provincial level will implement circular transformation. Finally, in the echelon orderly carbon peaking action part of each region, it is highlighted that 100 typical cities and parks should be selected to carry out carbon peaking pilot construction, and support pilot cities and parks in terms of policies, funds and technologies.

China has long had a layout in the low-carbon development of industrial parks, and a series of low-carbon policies for industrial parks have been introduced and implemented since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". At present, more than 50 state-level demonstration pilot parks have been set up across the country. Lin Boqiang said that this is mainly because the park is relatively easy to unify the supporting facilities, achieve management coordination, and it is relatively easy to do green and low-carbon management.

"The park is a very important unit, and there is currently a lot of encouragement for high-energy-consuming industries, especially petrochemicals, which must enter the park because it can provide solutions as a whole." Chai Qimin said that such as a high proportion of centralized treatment facilities for green electricity and pollutant emissions, as well as the overall improvement of electrification rates, carbon capture, hydrogen energy, biofuel substitution and other innovative aspects can be based on the park. On the one hand, it is conducive to reducing construction, operation and maintenance costs, and on the other hand, it is more convenient for supervision.

Centralized expressions also appear in the sections for steel, building materials, building energy, transportation, and circular economy. In this regard, Zhou Dadi reminded that the overall requirements for the "social and economic group development" proposed this time need to be comprehensively considered from the aspects of development layout, land use, industrial structure, and regional energy decarbonization. "Not only industrial parks, but also some development zones and economic zones should be taken as a key content."

<h4>Tackle the key core technologies of low-carbon zero-carbon negative carbon</h4>

Actions for key industries such as electric power, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and transportation, in addition to the energy green and low-carbon transformation action and the carbon peak action in the industrial field, energy conservation and carbon reduction, scientific and technological innovation, and circular economy are also involved.

In general, although hydrogen energy, CCUS, carbon sinks and other deep decarbonization and carbon offsetting methods have been mentioned, for these industry sectors, the focus at this stage is still on new energy alternatives to fossil energy, energy conservation, carbon reduction and efficiency increase and industrial structure adjustment.

In terms of circular economy, it is also specifically proposed that by 2025, the recycling of 9 major renewable resources such as scrap steel, scrap copper, scrap aluminum, waste lead, waste zinc, waste paper, waste plastic, waste rubber, and waste glass will reach 450 million tons, and 510 million tons by 2030. This echoes the relevant content of the 14th Five-Year Plan for circular economy released earlier this year.

Chai Qimin said that scrap steel, scrap aluminum and other high-energy-consuming products are the focus of circular economy development, related to key industries with a large proportion of emissions, which can greatly inhibit emissions and reduce energy consumption, and also have positive significance for issues such as power rationing and production limitation.

At present, there are still many technical problems in the field of recycled metals in China to be overcome, and such green technology research and development will be strongly supported in the next decade. The Action Plan clearly requires that the key core technologies of low-carbon zero-carbon negative carbon be carried out, and the achievements of green and low-carbon technology innovation should be included in the relevant performance appraisals of colleges and universities, scientific research units and state-owned enterprises. In the future, we will also set up a national laboratory for carbon neutrality and neutrality, a state key laboratory and a national technology innovation center, appropriately lay out major national scientific and technological infrastructure in advance, and guide enterprises, colleges and universities, and scientific research units to jointly build a number of national green and low-carbon industry innovation centers.

Specific to energy, it is mainly necessary to reduce coal and oil control, increase non-fossil energy, and improve supporting policies and market mechanisms. These are the main contents of the "construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body" proposed for the first time at the ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in March this year, and corresponding policies have been intensively introduced this year. A number of experts told 21st Century Business Herald that they are more optimistic about completing the relevant goals.

Chai Qimin expects that the concentration of China's power grid will increase significantly in the future, and the complexity of the power grid will increase due to the possibility of variable factors on both sides of power demand and consumption. These will be reflected in the construction and construction of related infrastructure such as power grids, in addition to the transformation and transformation of the original energy infrastructure, more new facilities need to be invested. "In the future, the country's energy production centers may undergo a very large shift, mainly in the northwest and southwest directions."

It is worth mentioning that in the view of Lin Boqiang, president of the China Energy Policy Research Institute, the stability and security of the power grid and the guarantee of supply are the biggest problems that the energy industry needs to face in the future. The "Action Plan" first proposes to "concentrate on the safe and stable operation and control of complex large power grids" in terms of technology.

"Whether it is from the perspective of the increase in the proportion of new energy in the plan or the transformation of energy use in the construction, transportation and other fields mentioned in the plan, the stability of the power grid will be a major direction." At present, it mainly relies on digital smart grid technology. In the future, energy storage will play a more important role, but the cost of energy storage is higher at present. At the same time, the power grid also needs to face the challenges posed by factors such as an increasingly unstable climate. Lin Boqiang said.

In view of the problems of power grid stability and insufficient consumption capacity, Zhou Dadi believes that it is necessary to mobilize the strength of both the supply side and the demand side to be solved.

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