Wen, Liu Xiaobo
On a quiet weekend, a big news came:
The China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a state-level think tank, proposed in the just-released "China Think Tank Economic Observation (2020)" that the construction of the Bohai Strait cross-sea corridor be included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan".
The report said: The Bohai Strait cross-sea passage is a super-large-scale infrastructure construction project, which has a bearing on the strategic overall situation of China's socialist modernization drive. In the past 30 years, a large number of relevant research results have been formed, which have been included in a number of national special plans and local plans. In recent years, all parties have formed a basic consensus on the project, so the above suggestions have been put forward.
In the national "14th Five-Year Plan", there is no mention of the "Bohai Strait cross-sea passage", not even the "Bohai Sea".
It is worth noting that in the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline" issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in February this year, a heavy message was conveyed through illustrations:
In the future, China will build three major cross-sea passages, from south to north: Qiongzhou Strait cross-sea channel, Taiwan Strait cross-sea channel, and Bohai Strait cross-sea channel. (See figure below)
The "Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Corridor" is included in the Beijing-Harbin Corridor, one of the "7 Corridors" of the "2021-2035" National Key Plan, and is located in "Branch Line 1", that is, the branch line of "Shenyang to Qingdao via Dalian".
However, the "Outline of the National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning" does not accurately and clearly mention the "Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Passage" in writing, nor does it give a specific construction date.
Therefore, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges clearly suggested that the construction of the Bohai Strait cross-sea corridor be included in the national "14th Five-Year Plan".
In other words, it is recommended that there be a breakthrough in the "14th Five-Year Plan", such as the formal establishment of the project or the start of construction.
What is the "China Center for International Economic Exchanges"? Is it authoritative for advice?
The China Center for International Exchange is a state-level think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, and below is a list of its leading members.
After reading this list, you know the weight of this think tank.
It has been nearly 30 years since the bohai strait was built to connect the Shandong Peninsula and the Liaodong Peninsula. Important landmark events during this period are:
In 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission held a research symposium on the Bohai Strait cross-sea passage project.
In 2010, researchers from the Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Passage Research Group and the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Railways and other national ministries and commissions jointly visited Penglai to investigate and investigate the engineering route and landing site.
In 2012, the "Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Passage Strategic Planning" research group led by the Planning and Research Institute of the Ministry of Communications completed the "General Report on the Strategic Planning and Research of the Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Passage" and submitted it to the National Development and Reform Commission.
In 2013, the strategic planning research project of the bohai Strait cross-sea passage was completed and submitted to the State Council.
On December 21, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission once again held a symposium on the cross-sea passage of the Bohai Strait.
In 2019, at the 2019 International Conference on Bridge and Tunnel Technology, Sun Jun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the internal research of the Bohai Bay cross-sea passage has reached a key node, and the research group has completed the strategic planning research report of the channel plan and submitted it to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval.
In 2021, the Bohai Strait cross-sea passage was written into the National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline.
So: since it has been repeatedly studied for 30 years and has formed results many times, why has it not been officially established until now?
The main reason is that this project is costly and difficult to build. China must fully accumulate experience in some short-distance cross-sea projects in order to embark on such a large project.
The picture above is a map of the Bohai Strait, and it can be seen that in the Penglai District of Yantai on the south side of the strait, there are a series of islands in its north, which provides support for the construction of cross-sea passages. Even so, the shortest distance from Penglai to Dalian Lushun is 105 kilometers, and if the cross-sea tunnel is built, the total length of the cross-sea tunnel may reach 127 kilometers, which is more than twice that of the Longest submarine tunnel in the world, the Qinghan Submarine Tunnel in Japan.
The average water depth of the Bohai Strait is about 25 meters, and the maximum water depth is about 86 meters, and the hydrogeological conditions are very complex.
In 2019, the plan submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission proposes to build this cross-sea passage in the form of a tunnel, and it is a composite channel of "highway + railway", with a total project cost of 300 billion yuan and a construction period of about 15 to 20 years.
In addition, the northern economy is not very economically strong, Liaoning and Shandong have experienced squeezing water, and their economic status in the country has dropped significantly. If this channel is launched, how the future economic benefits will be, it also needs to be carefully evaluated.
In recent years, China has successively built the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, accumulating rich experience in the construction of cross-sea passages.
The economic gap between the north and the south of China has also received more and more attention. The establishment of the Xiong'an New Area by the state, the establishment of the third stock exchange in Beijing, and the establishment of a free trade zone in Beijing all have the intention of balancing the economic development of the north and the south.
However, in order to leverage the development of the Bohai Rim and Northeast China, it is also necessary to have a larger and longer "leverage", which provides a "natural time" for the Bohai Strait to launch a cross-sea passage.
Just recently, the State Council adopted the Implementation Plan for the Comprehensive Revitalization of Northeast China and the High-quality Development Plan for the Liaoning Coastal Economic Belt.
The construction of the bohai strait cross-sea passage can play a great leading role in the development of Liaoning's coastal economic belt and even the revitalization of the northeast.
Due to the lack of cross-sea passages, the freight from the Shandong Peninsula to the Liaodong Peninsula mainly relies on sea or air transportation, and road transport has to run a lot of wrong roads.
Driving from downtown Yantai to downtown Dalian is currently at least 1,400 kilometers away. But if there is a cross-sea passage, it will be compressed to about 170 kilometers.
As of the end of 2020, there were 25.52 million civilian cars in Shandong Province and 19.74 million in the three northeastern provinces (including 9.34 million in Liaoning Province). It is conceivable that after the completion of this cross-sea passage, it will be busy.
If it is coupled with railway channels, intercity and pipeline transportation, it will greatly improve the logistics efficiency of the three northeastern provinces and Shandong and northern Jiangsu.
According to a research report by the China Center for International Exchange, the "Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Passage" has at least six major functions:
1. Provide a second strategic channel for "entering and leaving the northeast".
2. It has completely opened up the comprehensive transportation channel along the eastern coast, which is conducive to promoting the integrated development of the eastern region and the regional urban agglomeration on both sides of the Bohai Bay.
3. The intercity transportation function of Liaoning and Shandong is conducive to promoting the interconnection of the two peninsulas and narrowing the gap between the north and the south.
4. The function of transportation security and national defense strategic transportation channels is conducive to strengthening military-civilian integration and ensuring national defense security.
5. The function of the international strategic channel in Northeast Asia is conducive to promoting the long-term cooperation and development of the regional economy in Northeast Asia and improving the level of opening up to the outside world.
6. It has important people's livelihood functions, such as stimulating tourism and vacation.
In fact, there is also an important role or function: to give a major "theme" to the long-dormant Bohai Rim and Northeast China regions to boost popularity and promote development.
China's economic center of gravity is rapidly "territorializing the Southern Song Dynasty", and population, capital, production capacity, and technology are constantly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas south of the Huai River. From the perspective of balanced national development, the "visible hand" needs to make a difference.
However, this "act" must be guided by the situation, and there are economic and social benefits.
The Bohai Strait Cross-Sea Bridge may not be able to achieve profitability by charging fees, but the long-term economic and social benefits will certainly be huge. After all, there are nearly 100 million permanent residents in the northeast, more than 100 million permanent residents in Shandong, and more than 40 million cars in the four provinces.
From its inclusion in the Outline Of the National Comprehensive Three-Dimensional Transportation Network Plan to the latest proposals of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, there are indications that the Bohai Strait cross-sea passage project is becoming more and more mature, and the day of ripening is getting closer and closer.
It is hoped that this project will start as soon as possible to leverage the development of the Bohai Rim, the Northeast, and even the entire North.