Su Huawei
Associate Professor, College of Animal Science and Technology, China Agricultural University
Director of the National Beef Yak Industrial Technology System Office
Deputy Secretary-General of the Cattle Elite Alliance
Su Huawei, Ph.D., is mainly engaged in teaching and research in ruminant nutrition and feed. From 2002 to 2011, he studied at China Agricultural University and obtained a doctorate degree in agronomy; beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (2011-2013) and university of Wisconsin-Madison (2015-2017) postdoctoral fellowship; from 2013 to 2015, he worked in Modern Animal Husbandry (Group), successively served as the director of the nutrition center and the deputy director of Bengbu Ranch, and was named the leading talent of strategic emerging industries in Anhui Province and the leader of the "3221" industrial innovation team in Bengbu City He has presided over 2 national-level projects, 5 provincial-level and ministerial-level projects, applied for 7 national invention patents (4 have been authorized), participated in the formulation of 2 national standards and 2 software copyrights, and published 59 academic papers, of which 31 were included in SCI.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > the challenges facing China's beef cattle industry</h1>
1. The status of China's beef cattle industry in the world
The amount of cattle stock
The country with the largest beef cattle inventory in the world is India, accounting for 30.7%; followed by Brazil, accounting for 24.7%; the third is the United States, accounting for 9.6%. China's beef cattle inventory accounts for about 9.3% of the global beef cattle inventory. The chart below lists the top 12 countries (the League) in the world in terms of beef cattle stocks, with the rest of the country combining only 2.3%.
Distribution map of the proportion of live cattle in countries around the world in 2019
Beef production
Global beef production in 2019 was 61.31 million tonnes, with the United States producing the highest, accounting for 20%, followed by Brazil (16.7%), the European Union (12.9%) and China (11.2%). The chart below shows the distribution of beef production in countries around the world in 2019.
Distribution of the proportion of beef production in the world in 2019
Through the above two figures, we can see the production level of beef cattle industries in various countries. The U.S. stock accounted for 9.6%, similar to China, but the meat production accounted for 20%, nearly 2 times that of China; India's beef cattle inventory is very high, but beef production is very low, accounting for only about 7%; Brazil is a grazing country, beef cattle stock is also very high, but the meat production is lower than the proportion of stock.
Beef consumption
China's beef production accounts for 11% of the world's total, but beef consumption accounts for 15.5% of the world's total beef consumption, which can be seen that China's self-produced beef cannot meet the needs, and the beef consumption gap is mainly met by global trade.
Country distribution map of beef consumption in 2019
As can be seen from the chart above, the United States produces 20% of beef, the actual consumption accounts for 20.5%, belongs to the pure importer; Brazil is a pure exporter, the European Union is self-sufficient, India is also a pure exporter, 7% of the production accounted for, only consume 4.5%.
Trends in global beef consumption from 2008 to 2019
Beef trade
In 2019, the global beef export volume was 11.02 million tons, and the main exporters were Brazil, Australia, India, the United States, Argentina, New Zealand and so on.
In 2019, the global beef import volume was 9.29 million tons, and the main importers ranked first in China, accounting for 25.8%, more than 1/4, followed by the United States, and then Japan, South Korea and so on. In 2018, the world's largest beef importer was the United States, and in 2019, China surpassed the United States for the first time to become the world's largest beef importer, and it is expected that in the future, China will maintain the status of the world's largest beef importer for a certain period of time.
2. Basic data of China's beef cattle industry
Live cattle stocking/out-of-pen and beef production
The green bar chart below shows the number of beef cattle in China, including pure beef cattle breeds, local cattle, dairy cows, buffalo, and yaks, and the number of live cattle in 2019 was 91.38 million, an increase of nearly 2 million heads over 2018. In 2019, beef production reached 6.67 million tons, and the number of cattle produced was relatively high, reaching 45 million heads.
2000-2019 China's live cattle stock/out of the pen and beef production (data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
The above figure can be seen the development trend of China's beef cattle industry. Since 2000, beef consumption has increased rapidly, the slaughter of cattle has been relatively large, and the stock of cattle has been decreasing. In recent years, due to the support of industrial policies, most slaughterhouses and cattle breeding enterprises have also minimized excessive slaughtering, fattening cattle to about 700 kilograms before slaughtering, the overall beef output has increased, and the number of cattle heads is relatively stable.
Number of slaughtered cow heads/average carcass weight
According to the calculation of the national beef cattle yak industry technology system: in 2019, the number of slaughtered beef cattle in 2019 was about 30 million, the total output of carcass was about 7.7 million tons, the net meat output was about 6.6 million tons, and the beef output value was about 530 billion yuan.
In terms of beef cattle production level, the average carcass weight of slaughtered beef cattle is about 249 kg/head, of which the fattening farm with a high level of fattening technology, the average weight of hybrid cattle carcass reaches 330 kg/head, the average weight of medium- and large-sized local cattle carcass reaches 250 kg/head, and the average weight of local small yellow cattle in the south reaches 160 kg/head.
Trends in the scale of beef cattle breeding
The trend of large-scale beef cattle breeding is more obvious, and the scale is constantly expanding, but the proportion of scale is still low. In 2017, there were more than 1,000 large-scale cattle farms with more than 1,000 heads in the country, most of which were small farmers with 1-9 heads. Farms (households) with more than 50 heads account for less than 2%, which is far lower than the scale of dairy cattle breeding.
Number of beef cattle breeders of different sizes
The contribution rate of cattle farms of different sizes to China's beef cattle industry
It is mainly counted by the number of cattle heads out of the pen. The number of cattle in more than 100 large-scale beef cattle farms accounts for 16%-17% of the total number of beef cattle in China, accounting for a very low proportion; more than 50% of beef comes from small farmers with less than 10 heads, and they are the main force of beef production in China.
From 2008 to 2017, the proportion of beef cattle farms of different sizes in China
Cost benefits of beef cattle farming
The following figure shows the production and operation efficiency of breeding beef cattle of different scales surveyed and counted by the Industrial Economic Research Office of the National Beef Cattle Yak Industrial Technology System in the past few years, and the larger the super efficiency value, the better the production efficiency and the stronger the profitability. Nationwide, the benefits of breeding an average of 60-70 heads are the best, followed by large-scale cattle farms with more than 200 heads.
Production and operation efficiency of beef cattle of different breeding scales in China
Production Price Index
The producer price index is the ratio of the current year's price to the previous year's price. If the index is above 100, it means that the price is rising; the smaller the fluctuation of the index, the more stable the industry.
Change in the production price index of major livestock products (previous year=100)
Focus on the three industries of cattle, pigs and milk. As can be seen from the above chart, pigs fluctuate the most in all livestock and poultry industries, and the production price index in 2019 has exceeded 150; the fluctuation cycle of dairy products is basically consistent with pigs; the production price index of beef fluctuates smallly, most of which is above 100, so beef prices are mostly in an upward state after 2000, except for a few periods when pig price fluctuations will decline slightly, but soon rise back.
The gap between consumption and production is increasing year by year
The following figure shows the gap between consumption and output in the beef cattle industry, which shows that the trend is very obvious, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. From the chart, we can see the opportunities in the beef cattle industry, the demand for beef consumption continues to increase, and at the same time, we can see the challenges, and the growth rate of beef production is slow.
What are the channels to meet the consumption demand of beef cattle in China? The first is to increase production, but the yield increase is very slow, which is related to the breeding cycle and physiological characteristics of cattle, and it is impossible to increase rapidly. The second is to increase imports to meet the rapidly increasing consumer demand through imports, but it may become more and more difficult to continue to increase imports in the future, because the whole world is in a state of shortage of cattle.
Changes in import and export volumes
As can be seen from the trend chart shown below, China's beef imports and exports in 2008-2019 are basically close to the pattern of exponential growth, and it is predicted that imports in 2020 may exceed 2 million tons, but because of the impact of the epidemic, many imported seafood and meat may be restricted.
2008-2019 China's beef import and export volume change trend
Consumption forecast
According to the medium- and long-term forecast of the National Yak Beef Industry Technology System Industrial Economic Research Office, by 2050, beef consumption will be twice as much as it is now. Therefore, in order to meet China's future beef consumption, increasing imports is one of the ways, but the amount of imports is limited after all, the most important way is to find ways to increase the production of beef in China.
Medium- to long-term forecast of beef consumption in China
Option A is calculated according to the formula (total production - exports + customs imports) / total population.
Option B is calculated according to the formula (total production - exports + customs imports + smuggled imports) / total population.
The import of smuggled beef is calculated on the basis of 1 million tons.
3. The impact of the new crown epidemic on China's beef cattle industry
According to the research report released by the national beef cattle yak industry technology system:
Economic losses
The direct economic losses caused by the COVID-19 epidemic to the beef cattle yak industry are at least more than 17 billion yuan, including: cows (affected about 9 million heads) and their breeding (about 7.5 billion), shortage of materials (about 5.5 billion), pressure fence waste (about 3.5 billion), death tao (about 150 million) caused by inability to be treated in time, slaughtering and processing "rice shortage pot" and poor sales of warehouses and high-paid employees (about 700 million), and high-paid employees at the breeding end (about 600 million).
Implicit risk prediction
Because of the impact of the epidemic, the breeding of breeding cows in 2020 will be affected, and by the end of this year, the number of calves will be reduced, and it is predicted that cows will give birth to at least 4.5 million bulls, and China will concentrate on the lack of about 1.3 million tons of beef in the three seasons from spring to autumn in 2022, with an economic value of 9.1 billion yuan at an average price of 70 yuan / kg in 2019. This supply concave layer poses a hidden challenge to stabilizing beef consumption in 2022.
The pressure on poverty alleviation and poverty alleviation has increased sharply
Among the 831 poverty-stricken counties announced in China, 537 counties have beef cattle industry poverty alleviation, because the beef cattle industry has a bright future and is relatively stable in the entire animal husbandry industry. According to the national survey results of 35% of the cow inventory affected, about 1.35 million poverty alleviation cows have lost 1.15 billion yuan due to empty materials and labor costs, lack of materials to reduce weight and regain weight, and the loss of benefits of calves in the empty period. Returning to the level before the new crown epidemic requires at least the same strength, which makes it more difficult to complete the "all poverty alleviation" in 2020.
4. The development trend of China's beef cattle industry
Beef cattle stock and beef production
The growing gap between beef supply and demand in China will continue to promote the development of the beef cattle industry. The support of relevant national and local government policies will further increase the number of beef cattle and beef production, but there will be no significant increase in the short term.
In addition, consumer demand for beef will continue to increase, and expanding beef imports has become an important means to make up for the gap in the market.
Industrial development model
It is expected that the scale, intensification and standardization of beef cattle breeding will continue to increase, which is a trend in all livestock industries. This "three modernizations" include two models of single-field large-scale and "small group, large-scale", and we believe that the "small group, large-scale" model will be the main model of beef cattle breeding in China's future.
Variety pattern changes
The recycling mode of local resource protection and utilization of beef cattle will continue to be strengthened. Form a characteristic beef cattle industry development model of "point preservation breeding, surface hybridization improvement" and "protection first, use to promote insurance, and combine use". Especially in the south, the stock of local varieties is very high, and if it is not well utilized, it is only protected, and this model is difficult to sustain.
Costs and benefits of farming
The overall market situation of China's beef cattle industry is good, the price of live cattle and the market price of beef have repeatedly reached new highs, the advantages of breeding cow breeding benefits are gradually emerging, and the degree of refinement of production management is still the core factor that determines the return on investment of beef cattle breeding.
It is expected that more and more enterprises will improve economic efficiency and business stability by extending the industrial chain.
Industrial policy
The relevant policies of the beef cattle industry at the national level will continue to implement policies such as "fine seed subsidy", "vaccine subsidy", "grain feeding" and "environmental protection award subsidy", and local governments will continue to implement support and subsidy policies of different standards in terms of basic cow expansion, cattle insurance, industrial poverty alleviation and green development, combined with the actual situation of local industrial development.
In 2020, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee clearly proposed to promote "breeding pens" and "legal and compliant mortgage financing" in the priority guarantee of "three rural" inputs, which will play a positive role in solving the problems of financing difficulties and expensive financing for beef cattle breeding in China.
<h1 class= "pgc-h-arrow-right" > second, the development opportunities of the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province</h1>
1. Status quo of beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province
Cattle stock and beef production
Yunnan beef cattle stock of more than 8 million heads, the country ranked second, second only to Sichuan, and the gap is very small. However, the output of beef in Yunnan is not high, ranking seventh in the country, mainly related to the level of production, but also related to the breed of cattle, Yunnan raised local cattle more, single cow meat production rate is relatively low.
In 2018, the number of cattle and beef production in various provinces and cities across the country
Beef cattle productivity
Provinces and cities demonstrate the level of beef cattle production through beef cattle productivity. The formula for calculating beef cattle productivity is the number of beef cattle stock divided by beef production. The production level and production pattern of beef cattle can be seen from the chart below. An average of 22.5 cows in Yunnan can produce 1 ton of beef, and beef cattle productivity ranks lower in the country, while Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, Tianjin, Liaoning and Anhui only need less than 10 cattle to produce 1 ton of beef. In fact, these data and production mode also have a lot to do with, Shandong, Hebei mainly fattening cattle, do not raise cows, the amount of stock is not high, the number of meat available for slaughter is relatively high, Yunnan can be compared with Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei and other southern regions, the same mode to compare the level of production.
Beef cattle productivity in various provinces and cities across the country (number of beef cattle stocks/beef production)
Changing trends
From 2000 to 2019, the stock of beef cattle in Yunnan Province was relatively stable, remaining at 7-8 million heads, but beef production rose sharply, from more than 100,000 tons to nearly 400,000 tons. From this perspective, the overall production level of Yunnan beef has been improving.
Development of beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2019
Situation in the states and cities
The top three beef cattle stocks in Yunnan Province are Qujing, Wenshan Prefecture and Honghe Prefecture, accounting for 43.46% of the total stock in the province. Wenshan Prefecture's beef cattle inventory ranks second in the province, and beef production also ranks in the top few.
2018 Status quo of beef cattle industry in various prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province
Scale of culture
The scale of beef cattle breeding in Yunnan Province is basically the same as that of the whole country. It can be seen that in 2019, there were more than 30 large-scale farms with more than 1,000 heads in Yunnan Province, and more than 1.4 million small farmers with 1-9 heads, which is relatively low in scale.
Table of beef cattle breeding scale in Yunnan Province (number of farms/households)
Culture mode
According to the survey results of researcher Huang Bizhi, a national beef yak industry technology system post expert:
Farming model The number of profitable heads of household-bred beef cattle in Yunnan Province is 20-50 heads, of which fattening cattle account for 0-40%, which requires a complete labor force and does not need to invest in large facilities and equipment. Captive breeding models of 50-100 or more cows in rural areas have lower profitability.
The profit scale of cow grazing and breeding is generally 50-300 heads, of which calves and rack cattle account for 20%-40%, requiring 1-1.5 complete labor, and no need to invest in large facilities and equipment. The profit point is the sale of calves and the elimination of cows, and the production cost is relatively low.
Slaughtering processing and product circulation
Slaughtering and processing The slaughtering and processing of beef cattle in Yunnan is mainly based on the slaughter of thousands of households. According to the preliminary survey, there are currently 16 large-scale slaughterhouses in the province, with an annual slaughtering capacity of 1.344 million heads, and the actual operating rate is low, and it is necessary to improve the industrial chain to further improve the actual benefits of breeding and processing.
Beef products are sold as hot fresh beef, frozen beef and a small amount of cooked beef, lacking large-scale, branded and market-oriented deep processing products, and the processing added value is low.
2. Opportunities for the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province
Policy support
In order to thoroughly implement the important instructions put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping when he inspected Yunnan, "based on the unique foundation of diversified resources, play the card of plateau characteristic agriculture", Yunnan Province listed the beef cattle industry as one of the eight key industries and created a world-class "green food brand".
Yunnan Province has formulated detailed support policies and phased goals from the aspects of building a green organic beef cattle production base, supporting the planting of green organic forage feed, improving the level of green organic fine breeding, improving product processing capacity, market development ability, focusing on cultivating big dragon heads, and cultivating Yunnan beef brands.
The "Three-Year Action Plan for the Beef Cattle Industry in Yunnan Province (2018-2020)" issued by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of Yunnan Province put forward the action goal of the beef cattle industry: strive to develop the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province into a 100 billion-level industry by 2020. As an important entry point for promoting the process of agricultural and rural modernization and the main content of the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province has broad prospects at home and abroad.
The annual scale target of the three-year action plan for the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province
Resource advantages
Natural conditions Yunnan is rich in hydrothermal resources, belongs to the mild climate of southern China, abundant rainfall, sufficient light and heat. The vegetation coverage rate is high and the resilience is strong, the ecological environment is good, and it has superior natural conditions for the development of grass-fed animal husbandry, and there are fewer natural disasters such as snow, drought and wind disasters.
Forage resources Rich grassland resources: grassland area of 229 million mu, more than 10,000 mu of contiguous grassland 1177 pieces, natural grassland accounted for 40% of the total land area. Crop straw and agricultural and sideline production of 35 million tons / year or more: corn straw 16.43 million tons, straw 5.29 million tons, wheat straw 740,000 tons, sugarcane leaves 6.5 million tons, sugarcane juice 4.55 million tons, banana stems and leaves 3.39 million tons, rape straw 950,000 tons, citrus peel residue 440,000 tons.
There are 5 approved national beef cattle core breeding farms in Yunnan Province: Simmental National Core Breeding Farm, Shorthorn Cattle National Core Breeding Farm, Wenshan Peak Cattle National Core Breeding Farm, Tengchong Pinang River Buffalo Core Breeding Farm and Yunling Cattle National Core Breeding Farm, ranking first in the country.
Yunnan makes full use of the advantages of cattle breeding resources: Wenshan Prefecture focuses on building Wenshan cattle, Chuxiong Prefecture focuses on building Cattle in Central Yunnan, Baoshan City focuses on building Penang River buffalo, Dehong Prefecture focuses on building Dehong Buffalo, Diqing Prefecture focuses on building Zhongdian yak, and Nujiang Prefecture focuses on building Dulong cattle.
Border location advantage
Yunnan Province borders Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and other countries, and mainly imports live cattle from these countries. In recent years, the state has continued to strengthen border control efforts, and the risks and costs of smuggling live cattle and beef-related products have increased significantly.
Future development direction: in the overseas pooled beef cattle resources for breeding, slaughtering, beef products shipped back to China, through Yunnan radiation through the country, is expected to provide more than 10 billion yuan of output value for the beef cattle industry in Yunnan Province every year.
Market advantage
According to the 2018 National Bureau of Statistics, beef production in the southern region accounts for 27% of the country, and beef consumption accounts for 57% (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), which means that a large part of beef consumption in the south depends on the north or import support. The shortage of beef in the south, the southern transportation of northern cattle or the southern transportation of northern meat lead to higher prices of beef in the south, and the top 14 provinces in terms of beef prices are all in the south, and the southern beef cattle industry has the benefit of "near the water".
3. Outlook
First, from China's point of view, the beef cattle industry has broad development opportunities and bright prospects, but it also faces huge challenges, such as the slow growth rate of production and cannot keep up with consumer demand.
Second, the rise of the beef cattle industry in the southern region will rewrite the map of China's beef cattle industry, heralding a new leap forward in the entire Chinese beef cattle industry. The development of the beef cattle industry in the north has reached a bottleneck period, while many of the resource advantages in the south have not yet been exerted.
Third, the Beef Cattle Industry in Yunnan has now become an advanced representative of the beef cattle industry in southern China. The development of the beef cattle industry in Yunnan will bring a very good head to the southern beef cattle industry; the development of the beef cattle industry in Yunnan will be good, and the beef cattle industry in the south will also develop better and better.