The first three quarters of revenue completion progress is fast, financial debt data reveal what signals

Affected by last year's base low and high, this year's fiscal revenue will show a trend of high before and low after. However, at present, fiscal revenue still maintains a high double-digit growth rate. This also reflects the steady recovery of the economy.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first three quarters, the national general public budget revenue was about 16.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year, higher than the economic growth rate in the same period. Leaving aside factors such as last year's low base, revenue growth was 8.9% compared to the same period in 2019, which the Ministry of Finance believes is in line with expectations.

However, judging from the data of various months of this year, the growth rate of fiscal revenue gradually declined after April, and the growth rate in September was negative. In addition to the increase in the base, this is also related to the slowdown in short-term economic growth under the impact of the recent epidemic and flood conditions.

Affected by the steady recovery of the economy and the high operation of commodity prices driving the high price of industrial producers, the progress of fiscal revenue completion is significantly faster than in previous years. Liu Jinyun, director of the Treasury Payment Center of the Ministry of Finance, recently said publicly that it is expected that the overall growth rate of national fiscal revenue will decline in the next few months. However, considering that the progress of revenue completion in the first three quarters is relatively fast, it is expected to complete the annual revenue budget, and the relevant expenditures of the budget arrangement can be effectively guaranteed.

According to this year's central and local budget reports, the general public budget revenue for the whole year is expected to be about 19.77 trillion yuan in 2021, and about 16.4 trillion yuan has been completed in the first three quarters, and the general public budget revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to complete 3.37 trillion yuan.

Of course, this revenue target will also be affected by the new tax cuts. On October 27, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to reduce taxes by about 200 billion yuan for small and medium-sized micro and medium-sized enterprises in the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter, and 17 billion yuan for coal power and heating enterprises. In addition, we must pay close attention to studying the next step of large-scale tax reduction policies for market players.

In addition to the national general public budget revenue, the income of government funds, which is mainly based on local land sales income, has also attracted market attention. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, the budget revenue of the national government fund in the first three quarters was about 6.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year. Among them, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights in local government funds was about 5.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.

Local land transfer revenue is an important source of local government fiscal revenue. Since the beginning of this year, due to the low and high base last year, as well as the tightening of real estate market regulation and control, the recent real estate tax pilot will be out, etc., the growth rate of land transfer income has gradually slowed down to single digits. The market expects that the growth rate of land transfer income will continue to slow down in the later period. However, the growth rate of the national government fund budget revenue in the first three quarters was still higher than the annual target (1.1%).

Debt income is also an important source of income for local governments, this year the local government bond issuance speed is relatively slow, but in the second half of the year when the economic growth rate gradually slowed down, the speed of bond issuance is significantly accelerated, in order to stabilize investment and steady growth. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first three quarters of this year, 2,898.6 billion yuan of new local government bonds have been issued across the country, of which 2,216.7 billion yuan are special bonds, and the progress of special bond issuance is 61%, of which the issuance progress has accelerated significantly since August.

Li Dawei, deputy director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that the Ministry of Finance requires that the new special bond quota in 2021 be issued before the end of November as much as possible, and continue to play a positive role in the local economic and social development of special bonds.

The research report of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute predicts that the issuance of local bonds will reach 837.4 billion yuan in October. The issuance of local bonds in November is expected to reach 600 billion yuan, and the remaining 40 billion yuan of local bonds in December is waiting to be issued.

According to data from the Ministry of Finance, about 50% of the newly added special bonds issued by local governments in the first three quarters of the country were invested in major projects in the fields of transportation infrastructure, municipal administration and industrial parks; about 30% were invested in major projects in the fields of affordable housing and major projects in the fields of health, health, education, pension, and cultural tourism; and about 20% were invested in major projects in the fields of agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, energy, and urban and rural cold chain logistics, which played an important role in driving the expansion of effective investment and maintaining the stable operation of the economy.