Guosheng Securities: Gives mona Lisa a buy rating

2021-10-28Guosheng Securities Co., Ltd. Huang Shitao, Fang Dalei, Ren Jie conducted a study on mona Lisa and released a research report "Q3 revenue growth slows down, profits are under short-term pressure, looking forward to performance repair", this report gives a buy rating to Mona Lisa, the current stock price is 19.61 yuan.

Mona Lisa (002918)

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 4.927 billion yuan, an increase of 47.69% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 417 million yuan, an increase of 10.07% year-on-year. Among them, single Q3 achieved revenue of 1.847 billion yuan, an increase of 19.25% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the mother was 135 million yuan, down 16.87% year-on-year.

Revenue grew steadily and margins came under pressure. In terms of quarterly, the company's Q1-3 achieved revenue of 996 million yuan, 2.084 billion yuan and 1.847 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 105.62%, 59.95% and 19.25% respectively, and the company continued to implement the two-wheel drive model of "distribution business + engineering business" during the reporting period, and the revenue continued to grow steadily. Single Q3 sales gross margin of 30.10%, down 4.09 percentage points month-on-month; net profit margin of sales 7.60%, down 2.89 percentage points year-on-year, down 4.37 percentage points month-on-month, we believe that the main reasons are due to the rise in raw material prices, energy prices and power rationing and other factors. In terms of expense ratio during the period, the Q3 sales expense ratio was 9.46%, down 1.36 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 6.17%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year; the research and development expense ratio was 3.84%, down 0.23 percentage points year-on-year; and the financial expense ratio was 0.80%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year.

Q3 The cash-to-cash ratio decreased slightly, the pay-to-cash ratio increased, and the asset-liability ratio increased year-on-year. During the period, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was -132 million yuan, an increase of 7.01% year-on-year, of which the net cash flow of single Q3 operating activities was -300 million yuan, an increase of 425 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of real estate control policies, the delay in the return of real estate project payments, the increase in accounts receivable and the increase in contract deposit during the reporting period. 1) Cash-to-cash ratio: 21Q3 Company's cash-to-cash ratio was 98.32%, down 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, and the balance of the company's accounts receivable and bills at the end of the reporting period was 1.776 billion yuan, an increase of 56.01% year-on-year. The balance of other receivables was RMB390 million, an increase of 16.64% year-on-year. 2) Cash ratio: 21Q3 company's cash payment ratio was 112.21%, an increase of 23.17 percentage points year-on-year. At the end of the reporting period, the balance of the company's accounts payable and bills was 2.438 billion yuan, an increase of 43.88% year-on-year. At the end of the period, the company's asset-liability ratio was 60.89%, an increase of 9.44 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the company's production and operation scale expansion funds and the increase in new project loans in Guangxi Tengxian and Guangdong Xiqiao.

Investment advice: The company adopts the distribution retail and real estate strategic engineering "two-wheel drive" model, in recent years with a number of real estate developers to reach strategic cooperation, the proportion of engineering business increased, with the Fujian County production base production line successively put into production and collection of customer orders landing, B-end business is expected to continue to increase volume; at the same time continue to increase brand building and research and development of new products, optimize product structure, retail channels and ensure the overall profitability and cash flow quality. The company intends to acquire TomeiShande to enrich the product categories and improve the regional layout, bringing more performance flexibility to the company. At the same time, the company launched a restricted stock incentive plan to demonstrate confidence in future development. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be 6.4, 8.5 and 1.11 billion yuan in 2021-2023, corresponding to EPS of 1.57, 2.09 and 2.72 yuan, corresponding to PE of 14, 11 and 8 times, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk Warning: The risk of fluctuations in the real estate industry, the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices, and the risk of intensified market competition

A total of 20 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 16 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 42.61; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that mona Lisa (002918) good company rating is 3.5 stars, good price rating is 4 stars, and valuation composite rating is 3.5 stars.