Recently, Japanese politicians have been constantly playing a role in the Taiwan issue.
On June 3, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi used the term "taiwan inside."
On June 9, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga called Taiwan a "nation."
On June 28, Japan's Deputy Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama said that he would "protect Taiwan, a democratic country.";
The most popular was on July 5, when Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said that if China attacked Taiwan, the Japanese government would consider it an "existential crisis" and that Japan and the United States must jointly defend Taiwan.
▲ Aso Taro video screenshot
Aso's remarks mainly have two points: on the one hand, he said that he would intervene in the Taiwan Strait by force, and on the other hand, "defending Taiwan" seems to regard Taiwan as his own, because only his own can talk about "defending."
Obviously, there is also an illusion of "colonial dreams".
There is a key question here, that is, once there is something wrong with Taiwan, will Japan intervene in the Taiwan Strait by force? That is, whether it will send troops to the Taiwan Strait.
Instead of asking "will it be", it is more accurate to ask "dare or not".
The author's answer is: Japan does not dare!
There are 2 reasons for this:
First, Japan is not an adversary
Japan had earlier had the illusion that it could suppress China without the Need for the United States on its own, but it turned out that it was wrong, and since the 2012 confrontation, Japan has been much more honest.
After 2012, China has made rapid progress in all directions, including coast guard, navy, and air force, and Japan alone is no longer a Chinese mainland opponent.
Even if we add the United States, as we have already explained earlier in the article "East Asia is actually outside the strategic limits of the United States, it may be okay to fight small countries, but once there are big countries to focus, the United States can do nothing.
To put it in layman's terms, it is beyond the reach of the whip.
In the early years, China was poor and white, and the balance of power between China and the United States was extremely disparity, but the United States lost successively in the Korean War and the Vietnam War, which is the best proof, not to mention today's China?
With regard to the theory of "imperial tension and strategic limits", more and more cases can prove its correctness, the most recent example being the "Black Sea Confrontation".
At that time, the author judged that not to say that Russia only opened fire in warning, even if Russia directly sank the British warship, NATO could only endure, at most forming a more serious diplomatic incident, in the Black Sea, NATO only had a mouth-on share, because the Black Sea exceeded NATO's strategic limits, and the war was bound to lose.
Everything that followed, as the author expected. Putin is also confident that even if the British warship is sunk, NATO does not dare to do it, because they know that they cannot win.
Returning to the Taiwan Strait, it can be said with certainty that even if the United States and Japan join forces to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, they will undoubtedly lose.
Second, the price to be paid by Japan is too great
Japan's illusion of military involvement in the Taiwan Strait was an illusion he had, based on a miscalculation that the Chinese mainland's attacks were limited to the sea, to strikes against Japanese ships on the sea.
However, this kind of thinking is wrong, if Japan really dares to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it is a declaration of war against the Chinese mainland, and our attack will not be limited to Japanese ships on the sea, but will directly hit the Japanese mainland.
Imagine, under such circumstances, how much does Japan intend to pay to defend Taiwan?
For Chinese mainland, Taiwan is our last strategic gap in the Pacific Ocean, and the loss of Taiwan means not only territorial fragmentation, but also the loss of this last outlet to the sea.
If Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait, it means that Japan will seal the sea outlet of the Chinese mainland, which we will absolutely not allow, no matter what kind of forces exist, no matter what the cost, we will definitely open this sea outlet.
Therefore, in contrast, if Japan really dares, the price it will have to pay will be unlimited. Moreover, Japan does not have this strength, and with its size, it cannot seal the Chinese mainland.
In order to block the way of others and gamble on the entire country of Japan, Japanese politicians say that they can do it, but doing it is another matter.
If this is the case, why do many high-ranking Japanese officials still speak wildly?
In the author's opinion, there should be 3 reasons:
First, Japan wants to "intimidate" China
Unlike Europe, Japan does want to contain China's rise, because no one wants to have a strong neighbor around it.
Taiwan's greatest value to the United States and Japan lies in its role of containment and deterrence, so it is not difficult to understand that Japan has pulled the United States together to deter Chinese mainland do not solve the Taiwan Strait issue militarily.
The second is to provoke Sino-US confrontation
Japan naturally does not want to have a strong neighbor around it, but it is also very uncomfortable to be chained by the United States, and if it is best to make the Sino-US confrontation lose both, it is too good for Japan.
For example, Taisuo Nakayama bluntly said that China and Russia threatened the United States, and even used Japan's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor to warn of this threat, which is very explicit.
This is clear and needless to say.
▲Nakayama Taixiu video screenshot
The third is to solicit votes for Japan's autumn general election
This should be the main reason.
Suga has long revealed that it is possible to hold the Japanese general election in advance after the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, so all kinds of demons and ghosts have run out to solicit votes.
Japan has two important elections this year: the Liberal Democratic Party will hold a presidential election in September, and the current House of Representatives will expire in October and face a new term (i.e., a general election).
However, due to its inability to respond to the epidemic, the LDP's support has fallen sharply, and it has suffered a crushing defeat in the recent local elections.
Suga Yoshihide due to insufficient ability to govern, and no strong background, so the LDP factions fiercely gamed, Nakayama Taixiu for the vote, even his father moved out, claiming that among the 5 parliamentarians who prevented the passage of the "Sino-Japanese Friendship Treaty" that year, his father was one of them, which shows how much Zhongshan fought for the vote.
Similarly, the Aso faction, which was stabbed by Toshihiro the second order during the election of Suga to take over Abe, is also preparing to make a comeback, and Aso Taiwolf constantly steps on the red line in order to win the support of conservatives in Japan and the United States.
Therefore, to sum up, Japan does not dare to send troops to the Taiwan Strait, and its politicians call them "the state" and "defend Taiwan" on the Taiwan Strait issue, but they are playing the "Taiwan card" for the sake of the autumn general election, winning attention for themselves and soliciting votes.
The real situation is that Qiu Yiren, the "number one military division" of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, revealed that the United States does not support "Taiwan independence" at all; the United States itself has also said that "we support strong US-Taiwan unofficial relations, we do not support Taiwan independence, and we fully understand its sensitivity."; Japanese officials also stated that politicians' remarks do not represent the Japanese Government's position, and the "one-China" policy has never changed.
At present, China is no longer what it used to be, and we will never allow another territorial fragmentation of Taiwan. We are in the greatest spirit of the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue, but we also never promise to renounce the use of force. If one day in the future, we must use extraordinary means, although there is a high probability that the United States and Japan will not dare to interfere, but in line with the principle of leniency in anticipation of the enemy, we must also make every preparation, considering that even if the United States and Japan intervene, we can still win a complete victory.
Japan once used industrial Japan to fight agricultural China, which should have formed a dimensionality reduction strike and had a crushing advantage over China, but it was defeated by agricultural China, which shows that Japan is destined not to be China's opponent. Today, China vs Japan, when the same industrial civilization is against industrial civilization, and China's industrial volume is far more than Japan, Japan should be more cautious.
One of the things that Japan needs to pay attention to is that China is no longer 1894, nor 1931 or 1937.
▲Suga Yoshihide video screenshot
Today is July 7th, I believe we will not forget the "Lugou Bridge Incident" that night.
It has been 84 years, and we have not forgotten everything, and China is no longer the China of that year.
There was a question asked, why is China becoming more and more hardened in the international community?
One of the high-ranking answers was this:
"When they can beat you, they don't even bother finding a high-sounding reason;
When they repeatedly send military planes to scout you, prove that they are not completely sure;
When they attack you with public opinion, it proves that they have a hard time taking advantage of fighting;
When they sit at the negotiating table with you, prove that they already need to compromise with you;
If you look back at history, you will find that they have not changed a bit in the past few hundred years, and they are essentially a way.
And you're no longer what you used to be! ”