In our pre-auction analysis of the 291st auction on September 7, we voted on the price trend forecast for whole milk powder, skimmed milk powder, cheese, butter and anhydrous cream. The voting results are as follows:
Whole milk powder: 34% of the votes are expected to rise, 21% are expected to be stable, and 45% are expected to fall;
Skimmed milk powder: 52% of the votes are expected to rise, 23% are expected to be stable, and 25% are expected to fall;
Anhydrous cream: 48% of the votes are expected to rise, 31% are expected to be stable, and 21% are expected to fall;
Butter: 54% of votes are expected to rise, 27% are expected to be stable, and 19% are expected to fall;
Cheese: 33% of the votes expect to rise, 35% expect stability, and 32% expect to fall.
1
Auction Roundup
October 2021 - March 2022 shipments, the main delivery month of the new production season continued, and also entered the centralized delivery period of tariff preferences, the various varieties of production enterprises increased month-on-month, a sharp decrease year-on-year, and each variety had a different decline; the auction rose by 4.0%, the average price was 3927 US dollars; the transaction volume was 25093 tons, and the basic volume of transactions rose by 11.3%; the varieties rose sharply; the popularity of the auction was 180 households, and the popularity rose.
Average increase or decrease of each symbol:
291st GDT Major Buyer Turnover Ratio:
The explosion of purchasing power in Southeast Asia not only purchased power on whole milk powder, but also 46% of the purchase ratio of the Middle East together exceeded the 42% purchase ratio of the mainland, and independently purchased more than half of the amount of skimmed milk powder; and the performance of Chinese mainland buyers on butter was fanatical, accounting for more than 70% of the share.
2 Auction results of major varieties
September 7 Tender Results: Shipments from October 21 to March 22:
3
Comparison of the arrival cost of the main varieties in the future with the spot cost (yuan/ton, exchange rate 6.47):
The current prices of each variety in the early years have been inverted, and the spot prices in the fourth quarter will undoubtedly have upward momentum.
4 Major varieties after-hours reviews
1. Anhydrous cream: the international purchasing power is bursting, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central and South America go hand in hand, holding up the market. Coupled with the supply constraints of the producer, it is expected that the variety may come out of a strong trend in the fourth quarter and next year.
2. Butter: The continuous rise of the outer plate, coupled with the arrival of the peak domestic demand season, has greatly increased the domestic purchasing power, which has picked up the trend of this variety, and should be stable at a high level or continue to rise for a period of time in the later period.
3. Cheddar cheese: it is still the price of African buying, and the domestic excess purchase desire is sluggish, but the price has no downward momentum in the short term.
4. Ara lactose: domestic infant and young child powder consumption is sluggish, the aquaculture industry is not yet at the bottom, even if the price fluctuates, it is necessary to enter the market cautiously.
5. Skimmed milk powder: Europe and the United States are firm, the supply of producers is tight, and the purchase of Southeast Asia has resolutely pulled up the market, and it is expected that the price will continue to be firm in the short term in the future.
6. Whole milk powder: Although the proportion of Chinese buyers fell below 50% for the first time, Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which have been understocked in the early stage, have raised their markets, but considering the continuous deviation of purchasing power in these two regions, it is difficult to rise prices without the participation of Chinese buyers, and they are not optimistic about the sustained rally.
5 Overview
Domestic temperature shocks, milk prices are still high, consumption is difficult to support.
In the past summer, due to the repeated epidemics, the catering tourism industry in various places has been hit hard, and the industry has been sluggish.
The price of sodium caseinate is stable and high, and foreign supply continues to be tight, but the high level makes buyers wary and dare not easily enter the market.
The outer plate of concentrated whey protein is firm, domestic consumption is strong, but high purchase is scarce, considering that after the early low-priced inventory is digested, the spot will have upside.
The consumption of skimmed milk powder is not good, and various varieties compete to sell at a discount, waiting for the fourth quarter of the ice cream production season to change consumption.
Although large domestic dairy companies continue to lower the market price at domestic auctions, due to the serious inversion of the current market price and purchase price, the price has not fallen sharply due to the reluctance of traders to sell.
Butter waterless continued to strengthen, coupled with the large amount of Mid-Autumn Festival, the performance was eye-catching.
There is a surplus of cheese varieties, especially the cream cheese that has risen in the early stage, from the main brand to the new varieties, the brands are competing to dive, and the domestic inventory backlog is serious.
The light cream market is still a double day of ice and fire, with the Anjia brand out of stock and other brands slow to sell.
The UHT milk market stopped falling, but prices remained low, with major brands in negative gross margin sales.
Domestic fresh milk is in the peak consumption season, coupled with high prices, there is no spraying behavior.
At present, we are still most concerned about the price trend of whole milk powder, after the failure of the domestic factory price pressure, coupled with the recent high cost of arrival, it is unlikely to increase the price of a large amount of goods, but considering that there is still an auction to determine the arrival price during the FTA period, it is expected that the spot delivery will not be stopped, and the spot purchase will be the most cost-effective behavior.