(The following content is based on the video program of "Buying a House with Cai Lighting")
Hello everyone, I am Cai Lighting, learn to buy a house with Cai Lighting, we help buyers talk. Time has come to the second half of the year, how to buy a house in the second half of the year? We have made some predictions in the 2021 real estate top ten forecasts (below), many situations have happened, but there is one thing we said that there will be some differentiation in the first half of the year and the second half of the year, this has not yet begun, combined with the situation in the first half of the year, do some slightly detailed analysis of the second half of the year.
The reason for the well-known, because all the data is difficult for people to use directly now, so I still take a relatively thick line of [Cai Lighting's three views] to help you analyze it.
First of all, look at the sky, is to look at our policies, look at our competent departments, and look at this leading force in real estate. We know that recently Beijing on the school district housing problem, there are two intermediaries have been arrested, before Shenzhen seems to use code words, the house price is not GOOD, what bananas and durian seem to be suspended, and then before that is, Shenzhen's deep house speculation was caught, and then the South City fang sister was sentenced to life! , everyone should know what this means, so we will discuss the house price in the future, we can not say directly, we also have some code words, bearish can be said, if it is bullish we do not say bullish, we say - look at the mother, look at the father to see the mother, a father and a mother, this is originally the two forces of the market.
Regarding the sky, it is very clear that the central government does not want to bubble the real estate market, especially in the context of monetary easing, does not want to let the bubble of assets, which leads to the emergence of some financial and economic crises, from the perspective of national economic security, so it is unswerving to control house prices. In the past, we used some economic means, and now we use these administrative means, and even use some judicial means of public security, so it is to control house prices by any means.
Second, we look at the land, we are not talking about what each city supplies land, how much land, through supply and demand, I specifically said that the current real estate market in China depends on supply and demand to judge the real estate market is not scientific, because some of your basic data is not, so we look at the land is looking for a shortcut, what to see?
Look at the real estate developers. Because the investment of real estate developers in each project and each city is billions and tens of billions of dollars, so their research or judgment of the market will be half a step ahead of us ordinary people, so we look at how real estate developers are, how they live well, how they judge the market, so as to draw our strategy of buying a house in the second half of the year.
Here I choose three real estate companies to analyze, too much, not enough time, choose Vanke, this is the landmark enterprise in the real estate industry, and then choose a relatively large Country Garden, I do not choose Evergrande, and then choose a long-term more stable, but also my original owner Gemdale.
We know ourselves and each other, and we know what kind of strategy we should have as buyers. It just so happens that these companies have just held shareholders' meetings, and we can probably understand a little bit of their mentality from their shareholders' meetings.
We first look at Vanke, we look at the numbers, Vanke last year in all aspects are still up, net profit of more than 40 billion, up 6.8%, the contract amount of more than 700 billion, also up 11%, and then the revenue of more than 410 billion, up 13.92%, but its gross profit margin is down, is 22.7%, down 4.6 percentage points. I want to talk about the following may be a common problem of all companies, maybe our revenue is rising, the contract amount is also rising, all aspects are rising, but our gross profit margin is declining.
There are also three red lines that everyone is concerned about, Vanke is also successfully turned green, so we look at Vanke from the numbers, but we also reveal two small points of information from the scene, the first point is Vanke's major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Company's Xin Zong is also at the scene, although he said how strong Vanke is, he said that the difficulty is temporary, indicating that Vanke is difficult.
Vanke what their own management said, because Vanke has always been the title party, what "live" and so on, this time they said two words, called "no greed, no fear", these two words are actually quite flavorful to ponder.
Not greedy, he means that we have made a lot of money in real estate in the past, we can't always be in love, so what is his business strategy adjusting now? To take the initiative to transform, that is to say, in addition to development, we must also do business and services. Although the money for the service is very small compared to the money for development, it is also necessary to earn it.
What does it mean not to be afraid? It shows that they are facing some very big difficulties, this difficulty comes out of their mouths, or the problem of corporate gross profit margin, that is, from 2017, their land price as a proportion of house prices has risen by about 15 percentage points, and we know that if the final profit is eaten up by 15 percentage points, it is difficult for this profit to maintain a height or remain unchanged, so he may also have a gross profit margin decline. So we see that Vanke's stock price has also dropped by 30% in the past six months, although some management has done some management to increase holdings and so on, which is the case of Vanke.
Then we look at Country Garden is now also the largest domestic sales scale of enterprises, its sales revenue last year is more than 570 billion increased by 3.3%, the growth should be said to be not much, the gross profit margin of more than 100 billion, is 21.8%, is also down 4.3%, so the management of Country Garden should also be under pressure, especially the three red lines, so Country Garden has been reducing the proportion of loans.
However, they said that the bank loan in the first half of this year still supported the company very much, saying that for such a company whose financial situation is relatively stable and relatively good, everyone is still willing to cooperate with him, which means that there is no big problem in this regard, especially in the first half of this year. Recently, Kerry published a sales ranking of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year, everyone pays attention to the first place in this table, it is not Evergrande, it has become Country Garden, very telling, why is Country Garden It is not Evergrande, why Evergrande it does not need the first place?
You should look at the news some time ago should be able to understand, especially I saw country garden sales in January to June, this table everyone take a look, I think it is not scientific, because it is rising every month, are five or six tens of billions of rise, especially in March and April, all enterprises sell the peak, it is not the peak, it is anyway five or six hundred and sixty billion such a large proportion of the rise has been rising, everyone comment on what it means?
Then we look at gemdale, gemdale on July 6 also released the performance of the first half of the signing area, the signed amount is a large proportion of a rise, 55% more points, a 60%, June single month is also a relatively large rise. But we see that its gross margin is also constantly declining, from 40% in 2019 to 32% in 2020, which has also dropped by 10 percentage points. Although its ROE in 2020 is 18%, which is a relatively good number, it is still declining. This is the case with these three companies.
To add another point, last year we were generally worried about the problem of the three red lines, I also probably looked at it, mainly to look at the listed companies A shares and H shares, the listed companies in the A shares are still stuck by the three red lines, that is, Greenland, Huayuan, Jia kai City, Qixia, Yunnan City Investment, Gree, Guangming, Xinhualian, most of them have fathers, are state-owned enterprises, only one Oceanwide is still inside, stuck by two red lines, like financial street, the first opening of this is Beijing, this is all with a father. H shares are all stuck by three lines, that is, There are R&F, Sunshine 100, Aoyuan, these are private enterprises, stuck by two lines, is Poly and Sunac.
What do we know are the consequences of a few lines getting stuck in it? If you are stuck by three lines, you can no longer increase the size of the interest-bearing loan, how much money you can borrow; if you are stuck by two lines, you can only increase the size of this loan by 5% a year.
Well, we look at it from the above, saying that the impact of the first three red lines, including evergrande and so on, has begun to be eliminated, it should be said that the impact on them is not too big, the affected are often fathers, these enterprises are not afraid.
In addition, we can summarize three points:
The first point is that the stocks of these companies are generally declining, like Gemdale Vanke is 30%, country garden is down 20%;
The second point is that profit margins are declining;
The third point is that it sells very well.
So we analyze these three points from the first half of the year, we can deduce what they will do in the second half of the year, will definitely increase the profit, may no longer be like the second half of last year, we predicted, in order to protect the three red lines or something, desperately to discount to promote.
After we saw that Evergrande paid off this bill, we immediately cancelled the original special-priced houses, because they will definitely make profits in the second half of the year, which we deduced from the first half of the year.
In addition, we say that Cai Guangming has three views, looking at the sky and looking at people. Third, we look at people, look at what people are looking at, look at the enthusiasm and enthusiasm of everyone to buy a house, including the amount of funds you carry, is to use [Cai Lighting's house price hot air balloon model], because the previous article has a very detailed explanation, we will not expand here to say, here you can come with you, measure the temperature of the market.
If you are reading my article at this time, or you are a buyer, then whether you are ready to buy or take a look at the second half of the year, or whether you are looking at the market or looking at the mother, please put your judgment in our comment area, which may be the most real and effective data.
Well, our judgment of the second half of the year through the first half of the year is basically clear, one is not to let rise, one is not willing to fall, the rest is how we are not willing to lose, so the real estate situation in the second half of the year you should have a number in mind.
Well, welcome to watch this issue of buying a house with Cai Liangxue, we help the buyer to speak. If you feel that what I said makes some sense, please like it, if you feel that what you said is not right, please give criticism and correction in the comment area, thank you.