Disclaimer: This article does not constitute any investment advice
Source of the article: Chain Tea House
After a series of events, the platform users will be further lost, the FB ceiling will be raised to 100 billion, the yield will fall to less than two in ten thousand, and the collapse of the fire bull is a foregone conclusion.
The chain tea house recently analyzed the dividend model of Fire Bull Video, believing that the content quality and operation level of Fire Bull Video are not high, and it is likely to be reduced to a pure capital disk, and pointed out that there is a very serious problem of centralization of the Fire Bull platform, and in theory, the platform can arbitrarily issue FB or stop dividends. And less than a month after the article was sent, it all happened.
1. Accelerate additional issuance
In the previous article, it was mentioned that the main source of fire drills (FBs) is paid tipping. Users can get "fire tickets" by recharging, or they can directly exchange "fire tickets" for cash obtained from dividends, which can be used for video tips, and tippers and rewardees each get a part of the FB return.
Users pay to obtain FB in two stages, first of all, the legal tender is recharged into a fire ticket in the ratio of 1:10, and then the fire ticket can be used to tip the fire diamond, the ratio of fire ticket to FB is dynamic, from the beginning of 1:1 gradually decreased, official information shows that the exchange ratio on September 12 is 1:0.14. On September 13, the official announcement was made to adjust the ratio of fire tickets to FB back to 1:1, which means that the increase in FB is accelerated, and if the original yield is to be maintained, it is necessary to maintain the synchronous growth of income. In hindsight, compared to the so-called feedback to users, the sudden increase in the proportion of rebates is more like inducing users to recharge in order to prevent the dividend from continuing to fall.
On September 25, the official issued another announcement, announcing that the first phase of user subsidies would be stopped on September 23, while increasing the total amount of FB by 10 times, increasing the proportion of each output part, and deleting the original "50% of the remaining FB of annual output", and the ratio of fire tickets to fire diamonds was increased again to 1:10. Ten times the increase in FB issuance means that the equity of all previous FB holders has been diluted by 10 times, and the cost of buying FB on September 25 is 1/10 of September 13, which is 1/38 of August 16. As of the 25th, the total circulation of FB has exceeded 7 billion, exceeding the total output of 5 billion yuan in the first year of the original white paper, which is enough to become a substantial default.
The increase in the proportion has indeed attracted a large number of users to recharge in a short period of time, but the large number of additional FBs also needs more dividends to support. FB was diluted + stopped subsidies directly led to the cliff-like decline of FB dividends, on August 12, the dividend per 10,000 diamonds was about 64.8 yuan, at one point in early September it exceeded 100 yuan, on September 23 it fell to 21.47 yuan, and on the 24th, it continued to fall to 2.1 yuan (calculated according to the data released by the official account of Huoniu Video, there is news that the actual amount of arrival is only 1/2 of the calculated value, but it has not yet been examined).
Arbitrary changes to the rules have led to a complete loss of credibility of Fire bull video, even if it can be returned 1:10 now, who can guarantee that the platform will not enlarge the total amount by 100 times after the recharge? It is foreseeable that no more users will dare to recharge, the paid tip income will soon be zero, and the so-called "advertising revenue" essentially depends on the number of users and activity, and cannot fundamentally solve the problem. There is no doubt that Fire Bull Video has completely fallen into the vicious circle of "dividend reduction - payment reduction".
2. Delete and modify information
While revising the return ratio, Fire Bull also entered the so-called "adjustment period", modifying many key information including the official website and App interface.
At present, only CEO Jingfeng is left in the introduction of the official website, and only frog fun videos are left among the partners. The information of previous team members, advisors, investment institutions, and partners has been taken offline. It should be pointed out that some media exposed that Wang Wei had sent a microblog denying the relationship with Huoniu Video, but after investigation, Wang Wei himself was still a shareholder of "Beijing Dig Fun Smart Technology Co., Ltd.", and the microblog has now been deleted. The remaining member information is as follows:
On the other hand, Fire bull video released a new version of the white paper on September 22, in addition to deleting the information of team members, advisors, investment institutions, and partners, and changing all "dividends" to "rewards". The "all income" dividend was also changed to "dividend according to the share of fire ticket consumption". As of the 25th, the revised white paper is also inaccessible:
3, the collapse is imminent
In its previous analysis, Chain Tea House pointed out that the key to whether Huoniu has become a pure capital disk lies in whether it can import real users and cash flow, and the last hope lies in the launch of the live broadcast platform. In fact, the so-called "first-line anchors" are still online as promised, and the viewing volume of the vast majority of live channels has also stayed in three digits, and the last hope has been shattered.
The announcement of the official public account on September 25 said: "Fire bull video is an entertainment consumption platform, never an investment and wealth management platform, never talked about the rate of return, let alone the return cycle." Whether it is deleting key information, changing dividends " to "giving back", or the new announcement denying FB's investment, there is a suspicion of leaving out their own relationships.
But such a statement is obviously not valid, although the platform has never promised a yield, the reduction of flat yield is only a manifestation of the law of the market, and investors need to bear their own profits and losses. However, the platform issued an additional 100 billion FB without reason, which directly led to the dilution of existing user rights and interests, and in the near future, Fire bull Video needs to face a series of accusations such as breach of contract, fraud, and pyramid schemes.
Although FB has not really run away at present, dividends can also be withdrawn normally as of press time. But after the income is zero, whether the fire bull video will run away, and whether the 1:10 ratio is the last bite of human blood steamed buns is still unknown. The only certainty is that after a series of events, the platform users will be further lost, the FB ceiling will be raised to 100 billion, the yield will fall to less than two in 10,000, and the collapse of the fire bull is a foregone conclusion.
Article statement: This article is the work of the Mars Finance columnist, and the copyright belongs to the author. The article is the author's own view and does not represent the position of Mars Finance.