On October 24, India's Minister of State for home affairs, Nityanand Rai, said the new Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force had been authorized, which was part of the China-India border, and pledged to provide sound logistical support and modern equipment. The Indian government plans to add 7 battalions of 8,000 personnel to the Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force to garrison a new stronghold on the Line of Actual Control on the east flank of The Indian side in southern China. This is the largest redeployment operation since the withdrawal of Indian front-line troops this year.
First, will the increase in india's border increase trigger a sino-Indian border conflict?
The dispute and conflict between China and India has been half a century, in early June last year, former US President Trump once wanted to intervene in mediation, Indian Prime Minister Modi stressed "refusal to change the status quo", said that it should be resolved by political and diplomatic channels, at that time Modi also hinted that the responsibility for the Sino-Indian conflict is in China, but India's insistence on the concept of territorial division is actually based on the British colonial occupation of the land, and then claim to be the inheritance of British property, this has no historical basis and lack of legal basis for the determination of the country, It's hard to agree. On June 14 last year, a clash broke out in the Levan Valley between China, India and Canada, and both sides were killed and wounded, but after all, it was not an all-out war, and the two sides also adhered to the bottom line of "no use of hot weapons", but this time India's border defense troops were different.
The Indo-Tibetan mountain troops deployed to the border this time are one of several ace units in India, known as "mountain special forces", and are much higher than indian soldiers in terms of physical fitness. Judging from the equipment of this unit in the past, the unit has focused on individual light weapons, mainly automatic rifles such as AK-47, VZ58, L1A1, SVD sniper rifles, FN machine guns and INSAS machine guns.
When china and India clashed in June last year, the Global Times commented that India's military strength was generally considered to be much stronger than China's, and this recognition was based on the fact that india had once been co-opted and excluded from China in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Coupled with the fact that the new crown epidemic in India has not subsided, it is not excluded that the Modi government will use the China-India border to make a big fuss.
Second, China and India sandpiper clams compete, who will fish for profit?
United States. If you still have an impression of the Sino-Indian conflict in the Galwan Valley in 2020, when the US aircraft carriers "Roosevelt" and "Nimitz" aircraft carriers conducted exercises in the Philippine Sea on June 23, this point in time was after the Sino-Indian conflict, was it to support India?
On October 27, 2020, the United States and India signed the "Agreement on Basic Geospatial Exchanges and Cooperation" for the third 2+2 dialogue between the United States and India, and the United States can share sensitive information such as satellites and sensing with India on the basis of this agreement, and improve the accuracy of India's missiles, cruise missiles and other weapons through terrain, navigation, and aviation information provided by the United States. However, even so, India has never given up non-alignment, so although the United States and India have cooperation, they are not yet allies.
In April 2021, India, the United States, Japan, and Australia had a four-way security dialogue, and the United States proposed to organize an alliance similar to NATO to jointly resist China's expansion. (Saying that it is a joint alliance, in fact, it is still looking for other allies to try to adopt the "little brother", but India prides itself on being a great power in the East, and it is impossible to be a little brother.) ）
The sino-US struggle is like a runner in the race, the United States is in the front, China is close behind, the United States is exhausted, so it needs to rely on other countries to slow down China and get more breathing space. However, the United States does not dare to go to war with China head-on. Because if China and the United States go to war, the US domestic economy will be hit hard. The U.S. Treasury Department warned of the U.S. debt problem in early September and deferred it until December in early October. However, no matter how much the United States delays the repayment of its debts, the United States' finances can no longer afford any major war.
In recent years, the United States has constantly demonized China, created public opinion with unreasonable remarks such as "genocide" and "human rights violations", hoped to concentrate on the so-called "democratic" camp, and wanted to isolate China.
3. Is it possible to resolve the dragon-elephant conflict?
The current world situation, the reason why the two sides do not fight, as long as one is enough: do not cheap the United States!
China and India themselves are both world powers and regional powers, and if China is the second largest country that is about to surpass the status of the United States, then India plays the role of a balancer that balances the world situation. If India fights with China, the influence of the United States on the Indo-Pacific will also increase, which is uncertain for India.
To sum up, my view of India's increase in border defense is that under the premise of maintaining territorial integrity, China does not have to compromise with India's unreasonable territorial distribution. China is not a war, but it is not afraid of war.
With the increase of China's economic and military strength, although China does not take the initiative to start a war against India, it needs to remain vigilant, and at the same time focus on developing economic and political relations with South Asia, so as to cultivate a situation in which soldiers are subjugated without a war.
Shelving controversy and co-development is still attractive today. For example, jointly exploiting the natural resources of the disputed areas and deepening understanding between the two sides through economic cooperation can also help resolve political differences.