Author | Qidi Editing | paragraph
After a whole year of economic downturn in 2019, I had enough energy to prepare for the new year, but the sudden new coronavirus completely wiped out the "wish" that this year had improved. This is what happened to South Korean operators in 2020.
"Mask" became the most mentioned keyword on social media in the first month of the New Year in South Korea. According to the Korea Daily, masks were mentioned more than 100,000 times on Twitter in January. Gmarket, South Korea's largest integrated shopping site, sold masks by 4,380% more than last week between January 14 and January 20, and masks in most physical stores were out of stock.
In the streets of South Korea, takeaways and couriers continue to walk through. "The goods to be delivered in the morning will start to be delivered in the early morning, because of the recent epidemic, the daily delivery volume has increased by more than 10 times, and the company as a whole is currently running like it has entered a 'wartime state'." A courier from a South Korean courier company told the Phoenix Weekly reporter.
Since the first case of pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus was confirmed in South Korea on January 20, as of February 11, the cumulative number of confirmed cases has reached 28. As the epidemic spread in South Korea, south Korea's tourism and service industries shrank first.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > "infection is terrible, but losing work is also terrible."</h1>
At a food stall near Myeongdong Commercial Street in South Korea, Mr. and Mrs. Lee said that they had sorted out the original shops years ago, rented out their savings to the current stalls, and were originally ready to do a lot of work in the New Year, but now the Myeongdong commercial street is deserted, and the Number of Chinese tourists has decreased significantly. In this regard, the couple also has mixed feelings, on the one hand, they are worried about serious economic losses, but they are more worried about the spread of the epidemic due to the arrival of tourists.
Across Myeongdong Shopping Street, Lotte Duty Free, the largest duty-free shop in downtown South Korea, and Lotte Department Store, which is also in a shopping mall, discovered that a confirmed case had been here on February 2, and Lotte announced that it would be closed from February 7 to February 9. Although, on February 10, Rakuten reopened its doors, at 11 a.m., the cosmetics counter at the duty-free shop had almost no customers except for employees wearing masks.
A staff member said: "Compared with the last outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in South Korea, the number of Chinese tourists has decreased significantly this time, and I am worried that sales will be hit." "
According to South Korea's Chosun Ilbo, Rakuten Department Store and Lotte Duty Free could lose more than 50 billion won in one weekend, which will inevitably be hit by sales and economic losses.
"Frankly, infections are scary. But without group travel, not even jobs, it's scary. A tourist bus driver transporting Chinese tourists in Seoul said.
Not only tourism-related industries, but also the local consumption and domestic demand markets in South Korea have also been affected to a certain extent, because consumers try to avoid going to crowded places, and the flow of people in Korean restaurants, shopping malls, movie theaters and other places has decreased significantly.
At noon on Feb. 10, there were only six customers in a two-story 80-seat restaurant near Gwanghwamun in Seoul. Restaurant owner Kim Kyung-sook (58 years old) said: "On weekdays, office workers can sit at least on the first floor, but now the business is dismal, at least for more than 2 months will lose money." The monthly rent of the store is 50 million won, and the monthly labor cost is 30 million won.
On the afternoon of the same day, a coffee shop near Ewha Womans University in South Korea had only 4 customers; in Xincun, the most active gathering place for young koreans, a nearby movie theater was deserted because there was no audience, and the number of people in the ticket hall was less than 3 people, and some people kept complaining that "sales have shrunk by more than half."
"Although I have experienced SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome, I have never experienced a business depression from the beginning of the incident like this one." Mr. Kim, the owner of a Korean-style fast food restaurant in Xincun, told reporters.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > fare is cheaper than taxis Tourists still retreat</h1>
In addition to tourism, catering, and service industries, South Korea's aviation industry has also been significantly affected.
"The first time it felt so difficult, both international and domestic aviation businesses were seriously affected." A relevant person from Korean Air told reporters.
As of February 10, the amount of refunds for Korean air tickets reached 200 billion won in two weeks. With the continuous emergence of confirmed patients visiting Japan, Thailand, and Singapore, the number of air ticket refunds is rising. According to the Chosun Ilbo, due to the impact of the epidemic, the air ticket booking rate in Southeast Asia in February, which was originally in the peak season, fell sharply by 50%. Hanatour, the number one South Korean travel abroad industry, has seen more than 10,000 travelers cancel their trips since January.
As South Korea banned foreigners who had stayed in Hubei, 40% of Korean Airlines routes to China were grounded, and nearly 30% of routes were reduced. Korean Air suspended seven routes, including the Incheon-Wuhan route, and significantly reduced the frequency of flights on 15 routes, including Incheon to Beijing. Asiana Airlines grounded flights on four routes and reduced flights on eight routes. Korean Air is still discussing a plan to once again reduce or suspend its flights to China.
"Due to the sharp decline in Chinese passengers, there is no use in switching The Chinese route to another route, and the replacement route is far less than the lost passenger traffic in China." A Korean Air source said.
In addition to international flights, tickets from Seoul to Jeju Island on domestic Routes in South Korea fell to 3,000 won. On the morning of the 9th, a South Korean ticket booking website, the price of one-way tickets from Seoul Gimpo Airport in South Korea to Jeju Island in South Korea ranged from 3,500 won, 5,900 won, and 7,900 won, all of which did not exceed 10,000 won. Some South Koreans say that ticket prices are cheaper than the starting price of taxis, but now is not the time to travel.
In terms of cargo, Korean Airlines has also been hit hard. After the Sino-US trade dispute last year, many airlines focused their cargo on semiconductors and electronics, and the cargo transportation department has also cancelled related transportation needs because of the shutdown of Chinese factories.
In the fourth quarter of last year, all other airlines except Korean Air lost money. A relevant person in the South Korean aviation industry told reporters: "Last year, due to the tension between South Korea and Japan, South Korea's boycott of Japanese travel and the impact of the situation in Hong Kong, short-distance passenger transportation was depressed; in terms of freight, due to Sino-US trade frictions, the world's trade volume decreased, and transportation demand plummeted." At first, the industry generally believed that the problem would improve in the first half of this year, but the situation does not seem to be optimistic at present.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > South Korean car companies have stopped work due to the supply of Chinese parts</h1>
Affected by the epidemic, some Korean companies have had to temporarily close some factories in China.
Due to insufficient supply of parts, Hyundai Motor suspended production on February 7, and Kia Motors also stopped work from 10. South Korea's SsangYong Automobile decided to suspend production from February 4 to 12.
It is understood that most South Korean car companies have arranged the production plants of wire harnesses in China. The wire harness is the wiring part of the automobile circuit that connects the electrical equipment, which is equivalent to the body's neural network. Auto companies have expressed concern that if the situation becomes long-term, they may not be able to launch new cars.
At present, in addition to South Korea's General Motors, the production lines of the four South Korean car companies will return to normal within one week after the 10th. A person in charge of South Korea's Hyundai Company in Beijing said: Although the company has resumed work, with the spread of the new crown virus, there are still variables in automobile production, which must first be decided according to the availability of workers in Chinese enterprises.
Some people believe that the epidemic reflects the embarrassing situation of South Korean car companies. Most of South Korea's car companies are producing very important parts in China, and when some influencing factors occur in China, it is inevitable that Korean car companies will be significantly affected.
People in the automotive industry believe that Wuhan, China, is the main automobile production center in China, and global vehicle companies such as Renault, Nissan, Honda, and PSA are concentrated here. At present, not only Wuhan, but also some other cities in China's automobile logistics and transportation have also been affected, coupled with the decline in sales in China's automobile market last year, the epidemic may lead to a more depressed global automobile market. Most auto companies pessimistically predict that "business may be hit hard this year."
In addition to car companies, large enterprises such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and more than 1,100 small and medium-sized enterprises in China gradually resumed work on February 10.
According to the manager of a Korean manufacturing company that set up a factory in China, "The next 2 to 3 months will need to adjust the operating rate according to the situation, and it may take some time for production to reach normal levels." "
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" > south Korean economy expects a recovery but uncertainty increases</h1>
"As Sino-US trade frictions gradually ease, the South Korean government had expected south Korea's domestic economy to improve this year, but the outbreak of the epidemic has increased people's concerns about the economy." A South Korean media reporter in Beijing said.
The Korea Development Research Institute (KDI) said on the 9th that due to the spread of the new crown virus, the uncertainty of the South Korean economy has increased significantly. Both tourism and exports are likely to shrink. This is the first time that a research institute affiliated with the South Korean government has spoken out, saying that the epidemic will have a negative impact on the Domestic Economy.
The Korea Development Institute, the South Korean government's economic policy think tank, has said that the South Korean economy has been sluggish since April 2019, but predicts that after 10 months, the economic situation will ease. But on February 9 this year, the agency said that the spread of the new crown virus may restrict South Korea's economic recovery in the new year.
The Institute of Modern Economics reported on January 31 on the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on the South Korean economy that it is expected that South Korea's domestic consumption can fall by up to 0.4% in the first quarter, and the annual economic growth rate is likely to decline by 0.2%.
In addition, the mainstream media in South Korea have taken the OUTBREAK OF SARS in 2003 as a reference for analyzing the economic impact of the epidemic.
South Korea's private financial and research institutions reported on February 2 that the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the South Korean economy will be greater than that of SARS in 2003.
Compared with the SARS period, China's share of global production, trade and consumption has risen sharply. China's share of global output has risen sharply from 4 percent in 2003 to 16 percent, four times the size of the original. The number of Chinese traveling abroad has also increased significantly from 20 million to 150 million.
"South Korea is not only a neighbor of China, but also maintains extremely close relations with China economically, and the Korean economy is easily affected and hit by Chinese factors." Therefore, South Korea must gradually take steps to reduce its excessive dependence on China. Lee Jong-ho, a professor in the Department of Business Administration at Korea University, said.
In addition to the panic about the new crown virus that has impacted South Korea's domestic demand and service industries, in fact, the performance of major South Korean companies has declined since last year. "Samsung Electronics -53%" (operating profit compared with the same period of the previous year), "Hyundai Iron -94%" (net profit compared with the same period of the previous year), major large companies have successively announced miserable results.
In the face of the crisis, Korean companies have taken high-intensity countermeasures such as "selling non-core projects" and "layoffs". South Korea's financial circles worriedly said: "Due to the shrinking performance of companies last year, the pain will spread to small and medium-sized enterprises, self-employed individuals and workers from this year." "
Kwon Tae-shin, president of the Korea Institute of Economic Research, said: "The simultaneous 'storm' of domestic demand and manufacturing, which is the main axis of the supporting economy, is worrying. "
At present, the South Korean government plans to invest 2 trillion won of financial reserves in epidemic prevention and industries affected by the epidemic.
"As one of the core countries in global trade, finance and personnel exchanges, the shock waves generated from China have a huge impact on the global economy. Even if China can quickly overcome its stagnation and resume its upward trend, economies closely linked to China may need to overcome China's impact for a longer period of time. Lee Jong-ho, a professor in the Department of Business Administration at Korea University, said.