4 big things happened in one day, and that was the Middle East.
This is the Middle East.
The old enemies of the United States and Iran can "talk very happily" in Vienna on the one hand and "meet in a narrow way" in the waters of the Persian Gulf on the other. And Saudi Arabia and its rivals for many years can also shake hands and make peace in the blink of an eye.
The reason for all this is more or less related to the current intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict - although the "Arab Spring" once weakened the core position of the Palestinian-Israeli contradiction in the Middle East, the facts show that no matter how the geopolitical competition and sectarian conflict in the Middle East evolve, the Palestinian issue is still an unavoidable existence of all parties in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia lays out diplomatic reconciliation
After leading the Gulf states in sharp confrontation with Iran and other countries for several years, Saudi Arabia has entered a period of diplomatic adjustment.
On May 10, Saudi Arabia welcomed two dignitaries: Tamim, emir of Qatar (head of state), and Turkish Foreign Minister Chavushoglu. The former is the protagonist of the "severance of diplomatic relations" incident in the Middle East that shocked the world in 2017, and the latter is an old rival who has been competing with Saudi Arabia for regional leadership for many years.
Tamim arrived in the Saudi coastal city of Jida that night, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed personally went to the airport to greet him. Saudi media reported that the two sides will discuss the latest developments in the situation in the Gulf region, as well as issues of common concern such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
The Saudi Crown Prince (first from right) greets the Emir of Qatar. Source: Saudi Royal Palace
In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Yemen, and the Maldives announced that Qatar had severed diplomatic relations with Iran and imposed sanctions and blockades on it because it was "too close" to Iran.
Qatar was heavily supported by Turkey when it was embattled. On the 10th, Turkish Foreign Minister Chavushoglu flew to Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal to discuss the regional situation and repair bilateral relations.
Since the beginning of the new century, as the traditional important players in the region such as Iraq, Egypt and Syria have been severely weakened, the influence of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey has been highlighted, and the open and secret struggle between the three parties has become one of the main lines running through the Middle East for the past decade. Whether it is the intervention in the situation in Syria, the exchange of fire between the Saudi and other countries' coalition forces and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, or Turkey's speculation about the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi, there is nothing wrong with it.
However, this familiar scene may become a thing of the past.
Biden's New Deal led to dramatic change
The adjustment of the US Biden administration's Policy in the Middle East has somewhat caught Saudi Arabia by surprise.
During the Trump era, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and pursued "maximum pressure" on Iran. At the same time, the Trump administration is very biased in favor of Israel, not only moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, but also vigorously brokering saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to reconcile with Israel to build a "united front" against Iran.
Saudi Arabia bet on Trump, but Biden's victory reversed U.S. Middle East policy. In his first foreign policy speech since taking office, Biden announced that he would no longer support the military operations of saudi arabia and other countries in Yemen. Later, the Biden administration released an investigation report into the Khashoggi case, pointing the finger at the Saudi crown prince.
The Biden administration's attempt to return to the Iran nuclear deal and recalibrate U.S.-Israel relations has more directly impacted the Political Landscape of the Middle East during the Trump era. Since the beginning of April, the parties to the Iranian nuclear agreement have held several rounds of talks in Vienna, Austria, in an effort to save the Iranian nuclear agreement. Iranian President Rouhani said on the 8th that he was optimistic about the progress of the negotiations.
However, the contest between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf on the 10th seems to be somewhat unexpected. According to the US military, at that time, 6 US warships were escorting the "Georgia" cruise missile nuclear submarine through the Strait of Hormuz, while the high-speed approach of 13 Iranian speedboats made the Americans highly nervous.
U.S.-Iran warships meet in a narrow road in the Persian Gulf. Source: GJ
However, this is likely to be an episode in the process of easing relations between the United States and Iran. Iran has always claimed sovereignty over parts of the Strait of Hormuz, and it is not the first time that it has been close to A.S. warships, not to mention that Iran's Revolutionary Guards have always been hardliners in Iran.
Therefore, the relaxation of Saudi Arabia's relations with Iran is logical. On the 10th, iran's foreign ministry confirmed that it held talks with Saudi Arabia a few days ago, saying that it is in the interests of the Gulf region to eliminate tensions and restore relations between the two countries. It was the first time Iran had publicly acknowledged holding talks with Saudi Arabia since the two countries severed diplomatic relations in 2016.
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is difficult to avoid
While the main rivals within the Islamic world have eased relations with each other, the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel has intensified.
The Israeli military said that from 18:00 to midnight local time on the 10th, Hamas armed personnel in the Gaza Strip fired more than 150 rockets at Israel, dozens of which were intercepted. In retaliation, Israeli forces airstrikes on a number of Hamas military targets in the Gaza Strip.
Israel said that the rocket attack caused two injuries in Israel, and many places in Israel announced the suspension of school classes and gathering activities, and the opening of public air defense facilities. Palestinian health officials said the Israeli bombing killed 20 people, including nine children.
Clashes broke out between the Palestinian people and the Israeli police at the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount (known to Muslims as the "Noble Forbidden Land") in the Old City of Jerusalem on the morning of the 10th. The Associated Press reported that Palestinians sealed the entrances and exits, threw stones at Israeli police outside the mosque, and fired tear gas, detonator bombs and rubber bullets. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said more than 300 Palestinians were injured in the conflict, and Israel said 21 police officers were injured in the clashes. Since the start of Ramadan in mid-April, clashes between The Palestinians and Israelis have erupted several times in the Old City of Jerusalem.
Palestinians protested against Israeli military police in the Gaza Strip. Source: AFP
In the Middle East, where the bloodshed never ceases, the conflict will not be easily settled. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement on the evening of the 10th, saying that Hamas has "crossed the red line" and that Israel will make a "strong response.". Faced with the difficult problem of forming a cabinet, I am afraid that he will not easily give up the opportunity to curry favor with domestic hardliners.
Palestinians are also under electoral pressure, and they have external support. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strongly warned on the 10th that Turkey will "do its best to mobilize the world, especially the Islamic world, to stop Israel's 'terror and occupation'". Turkey has stated that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries will naturally not be behind in matters related to the prestige of the Islamic world.
Of course, it remains to be seen how long the unity of the Islamic world on the Palestinian-Israeli issue can last. After all, the Iranian nuclear issue has not yet been resolved, and the competition for leadership between all parties has never stopped.
But the renewed prominence of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is bound to make the Gulf states rethink their relations with Israel. While countries such as the UAE have normalized their relations with Israel, this does not equate to true reconciliation and peace. Israel also needs to find its own answers to this.
Produced by Deep Sea Studio
Written by Yang Yifan
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