Raqqa recovered, but a new round of the game had just begun

The Syrian Democratic Army (SDF), led by Kurdish forces, recently officially announced the recovery of Raqqa, the headquarters of the extremist group "Islamic State" (IS), while calling on the international community to help Raqqa rebuild, and said it would transfer power to the Raqqa "Citizens' Assembly" as soon as possible. Analysts believe that in view of the fact that the IS forces have not been completely eliminated, and all forces are also focusing on the projection layout of the "post-IS era", Raqqa may not be the end, but the starting point of a new round of more intense games.

The "cat and mouse game" is not over

Although the main force of IS has collapsed, the "cat and mouse game" with the remnants of IS is not over.

According to the ABC, after the liberation of Raqqa, the front will continue to be a bitter battle with IS. In eastern Syria and western Iraq, the last of IS's forces remain. At the same time, isa's globally dispersed branches and the financial, recruitment, and advocacy networks it builds must be eradicated.

Analysts say IS will return to the form of a guerrilla, rabble-rouser rebel organization that has seized the borders of Iraq and Syria and seeks to exploit unresolved social differences between Syria and Iraq, a strategy that has given IS a degree of popular support.

At present, IS leadership, propaganda agencies and a group of organizational cadres have fled south to the central region of the Euphrates River Valley, "this area in eastern Syria will become THE last stronghold of IS," said Stephen Townsend, the former supreme commander of the anti-terror coalition. The area is also speculated to be the hiding place of IS chief Baghdadi after his injuries. Deir Ezzor, Mayadi, Abu Kamal and other regions in eastern Syria will become the main "battlefields" in the future. But even if the isdoing of iss in Iraq and Syria, pursuing IS militants around the world is a challenge.

IS's power has been widely extended to Africa, Yemen, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Libya, Bangladesh and other regions and countries, IS has either established subsidiaries or "incorporated" local terrorist organizations to continuously carry out terrorist attacks in the region or around the world. In addition, IS's demagogic and inflammatory propaganda, including the dissemination of its radical ideology and religious ideas online, to encourage individuals to launch "lone wolf" attacks is even more invincible.

The power struggle will begin

In the "post-IS era", the battle for power in Raqqa will begin. This involves the question of who will take over Raqqa. Theoretically, a legitimate and fair governing body is needed to take over Raqqa, while ensuring the presence of military forces to stabilize the situation and prevent the resurgence of IS. On the other hand, this institution needs to be supported by the local population.

The U.S. vision is for a citizens' assembly of local Arabs to take over Raqqa as its governing body. At the same time, Parliament will be supported by a temporary security force. Thus, six months ago, the Raqqa "Citizens' Assembly" was established under the coordination of the Democratic Army, with members including local officials and tribal leaders.

In addition to the Raqqa "Citizens' Assembly", the Raqqa Provincial Assembly, backed by the Syrian opposition in Turkey, has also shown a willingness to take over Raqqa, while the Raqqa Provincial Council and the "Citizens' Assembly" are opposed to each other.

A third takeover force could also be the Syrian Bashar al-Assad government. Thanks to its continuous victories on the battlefield and the "blessing" of Russia, the Assad government has a firm position and has taken into account major cities such as Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Latakia. The Russian military says government forces in Bashar al-Assad control 85 percent of the country. For now, Assad's government is trying to reach a settlement agreement with Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Allah Party on post-war Raqqa. It is said that as the territory controlled by the Syrian government forces expands day by day, it may provide More chips for Bashar in future political negotiations.

The ABC believes that just after IS lost Fallujah last July, the leaders of regional countries have realized that IS is in jeopardy and have begun to plan a "post-IS" political chess game, each believing that it needs to consolidate its own territory, in part of which is the independence referendum held in Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region. Analysts pointed out that the liberation of Raqqa will further stimulate all parties to chase syria, and regional countries and organizations such as the extraterritorial powers us and Russia, the Syrian government and opposition forces, Turkey and Iran, and Lebanon's Allah Party are fighting for their own spheres of influence in Syria. (Liao Qin)