The Afghan Taliban said on social media on the 10th that the Taliban armed forces captured Farah City, the capital of Farah Province in the west, and Pülhumli City, the capital of Baghlan Province in the north, on the same day. Since the 6th, the Taliban have announced the capture of 8 provincial capitals in the north and west. The Taliban have won successive victories in many places, but say there are no plans to attack kabul, the Afghan capital. The Afghan government, which suffered a major defeat in the conflict, recently issued a "call for help" to domestic warlords and civilian armed forces to jointly fight back against the Taliban.
As the conflict between Afghan government forces and the Taliban continues to expand, will war-torn Afghanistan once again face the threat of a prolonged civil war?
◎ The Taliban captured 8 provincial capitals on the 5th
According to AFP and other reports, on August 11, local time, local afghan lawmakers confirmed that the Taliban had occupied Fazabad City, the capital of Badakhshan Province in northern Afghanistan. The Taliban also announced control of the city on social platforms. On the same day, Afghan government forces regained control of farah, a city in the western part of the country, which had been briefly captured by the Taliban the previous day.
While controlling large swathes of Afghan territory, the Taliban recently launched an offensive against major cities in the country. Since the announcement of the seizure of the first provincial capital, Zaranj, on August 6, the Taliban have announced the seizure of eight provincial capitals in five days, accounting for nearly a quarter of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals. Tass reported that a senior EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Aug. 10 that the Taliban now controls 65 percent of Afghanistan's territory.
Reuters reported that farah and the city of Herat in the west of the country, the city of Rashkarga in the southwest, and the city of Kandahar in the south are currently under heavy attack from the Taliban. In the north, a fierce firefight is taking place on the outskirts of the city of Mazar-e-Sharif. The central Afghan city of Pulqumuri, which the Taliban captured on August 10, is just 200 kilometers from the Afghan capital, Kabul.
The Washington Post believes that the US government predicts that Kabul may be occupied by the Taliban within 6-12 months after the withdrawal of US troops, which will lead to the collapse of the Afghan government. But an official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Aug. 10 that the U.S. military's new assessment suggests the situation in Kabul could collapse in 90 days or even a month.
But Taliban spokesman Mujahid said in an Aug. 10 interview with Russian Satellite News Agency that the Taliban would first capture other provinces before deciding on the issue of attacking Kabul. He also noted that the current situation in Afghanistan is "completely out of government control."
Niu Song, a researcher at the Middle East Research Institute of Shanghai Chinese University, analyzed that the Taliban have no clear plan to attack Kabul and control the whole territory. Against the backdrop of moderate U.S. airstrikes and urging Afghan government forces to negotiate peace with the Taliban, the Taliban are temporarily incapable and have no intention of capturing the capital and its vicinity.
Niusun pointed out that the Taliban have established national power in most of Afghanistan, and from the history of the Taliban's administration, the current situation in Afghanistan and the long-term trend, it can be seen that the Taliban's goal of dominating all of Afghanistan has never changed. But for now, the Taliban have formed a siege of the capital through a large-scale siege, mainly to deter the Afghan government.
◎ The withdrawal of US troops has intensified the imbalance of power in Afghanistan
Nyon believes that the fundamental disagreement between the two warring sides in Afghanistan at present lies in who will dominate the political trend of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops. The continued deterioration of the situation in Afghanistan is mainly due to the intensification of the military game within it. The Biden administration's move to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan has exacerbated the rapid imbalance in the balance of power within Afghanistan.
U.S. President Joe Biden said at a White House news conference on Aug. 10 that Afghan leaders "must fight for themselves." Biden also said he did not regret making the decision to withdraw his troops. U.S. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby pointed out at a news conference on August 9 that the situation in Afghanistan depends on The political and military leadership of Afghanistan. But Kirby also acknowledged that the security situation in Afghanistan "is clearly not moving in the right direction."
According to the plan, U.S. troops will be completely withdrawn from Afghanistan on September 11. The U.S. military has recently carried out multiple air strikes on Taliban targets, but the Associated Press pointed out on August 10 that although the Taliban are making rapid progress, there is no indication that the U.S. military will increase the intensity of air strikes.
Zhang Chuchu, an associate researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University and the Center for the Study of the Middle East, analyzed that although the US military decided to withdraw from Afghanistan, the United States was actually unwilling to completely give up its control and influence in Afghanistan. At present, the United States mainly curbs the Taliban's offensive posture by providing economic support to government forces on the one hand and launching air strikes against the Taliban on the other.
Agence France-Presse (AFP) noted that the United States has armed, financed and trained Afghan government forces for years, and as the Taliban's offensive momentum continues to intensify, Washington has begun to "irritate" at the latter's failure. U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price recently stressed that Arab government forces, which are more armed than the Taliban, should have "dealt a more significant blow" to the Taliban, arguing that the idea that the Taliban's offensive could not be stopped "is not in line with local realities."
Zhang Chuchu believes that although many units in the Afghan government army have weak combat capabilities and seem to be "vulnerable" to the Taliban's offensive, their overall size is even larger, and the army also retains some well-equipped and well-trained military forces, and it is difficult for the government army and Afghanistan to completely crush each other in the short term to gain control over the whole country.
◎ "Asking for help" from warlords or triggering a protracted civil war
The British "Times" reported that due to the gradual defeat of the Afghan government army, in order to avoid a complete collapse of the situation in Afghanistan, Ghani has turned to warlords and civilian armed forces to fund the latter to fight against the Taliban. The analysis pointed out that Kabul's agreement with local warlords could lead to the local division of Afghanistan, triggering another civil war.
Zhang Chuchu pointed out that the Ghani government's "request for help" from warlords and civilian armed forces is tantamount to drinking and quenching thirst. Not only will it not help Afghanistan to achieve peace and stability at an early date, but it will also exacerbate the dilemma of Afghan state-building, resulting in more complicated games within and outside Afghanistan.
Zhang Chuchu introduced that the power of Afghan warlords is often interrelated with specific ethnic groups and tribes, and has important control in rural areas. Some warlords have been supported by the United States and have become their proxies. However, after the United States invaded Afghanistan, it spent a lot of money to support the Afghan government forces in fighting the warlord forces to stabilize the situation on the ground.
Zhang Chuchu believes that at present, neither the Afghan government army nor the Taliban has the absolute strength to destroy the other side. Afghanistan's complex ethnic conflicts and mountainous terrain have also created the conditions for a "divided" political landscape in Afghanistan. At present, it seems that Afghanistan may fall into a situation of prolongation and normalization of civil war.
Nyon believes that after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the country has actually been in civil war for 20 years, but because the Taliban is "the only one", it is difficult for other civilian armed forces to compete with it. The prolongation of the civil war in Afghanistan is the result of the intervention and armed intervention of external forces. As long as the United States does not abandon its political and military intervention in Afghanistan, the state of the Afghan civil war will be difficult to change.
Nyusun also pointed out that after the United States launched the war in Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the Taliban was not completely eliminated, and after years of repairs, it has a "comeback" trend. Since 2008 in particular, the Taliban have been widely regarded as an important player in the Afghan peace process that is difficult to ignore. Despite the Taliban's military ability to expand its power, its political ability to maintain stability across the country depends in large part on whether its radical ideology can be improved to gain popular support.
[Reporter] Ling Xi
【Planner】Peng Yifei
【Author】 Ling Xi; Peng Yifei
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