Shrinkage is inevitable, the shock is endless, it is still a flat day without alarm, if the highlight, the net inflow of funds in the north in a single day is 10 billion is a special number, China Ping An has brushed a sense of existence for a long time, and the cycle stock of the old bird does not die again flapping its wings and flying a few times, which is an accident. More than 3,000 individual stocks were in a state of decline throughout the day, which was quite helpless, but in nature, it was still in a state of momentum, and we were not bearish on the next stock market performance
Since the A-share entered the era of interconnection in 2016, the northbound funds have been called smart money, bringing fresh advanced player thinking, because it is almost not doing chase, almost not doing counterpart trading, and has also become one of the important incremental funds of A-shares. At the same time, the northbound capital order is prohibited, and the resolute selling of some logical varieties can also be regarded as a kind of advanced and healthy thinking - Han's Laser, Shanghai Airport, etc., were once the love stocks in the north, but after the fundamentals deteriorated, the north also firmly launched a position adjustment, which is far better than the panic escape and helpless stampede of the domestic public offering. Today's northbound funds are after March again there is a large inflow, I think they must have seen the information we did not see, the news surface, the domestic economic data in the third quarter is indeed not very powerful, but behind this lack of strength, it precisely means the opening of the change, such as the fine-tuning of the regulation and control of real estate, such as the precise support of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises, such as increasing the financing of the capital market and policy inclination, etc. - stock investment follows a point, the technical side obeys the fundamentals, the fundamentals obey the policy side, The current domestic policy pays attention to the capital market is easy to rise and fall, and it is also doomed that as long as we do not die, do not do demons, good days will still last
The collective turnaround of financial stocks is inseparable from the weight of banking and insurance (compared with securities as a part of the secondary market that is looked at in advance, the performance after mid-September is relatively quiet). Bank stocks a number of listed companies have carried out performance disclosure, a good macro environment has brought about the improvement of asset quality and profit levels, which we can see from the third quarter data of China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, for the fourth quarter of the investment direction observation, the bank always has a place, which our judgment and the direction of the market are not different. The unexpected should be insurance, the first three quarters of this year, if you ask the largest decline in the sector, there must be a place for insurance, the analysis of insurance stocks is from the new insurance sales of the debt side and the income side of investment profitability to more comprehensive analysis, it is obvious that the insurance industry's debt side improvement can only be said to have the strongest impact of the time past, life insurance sales staff shed the situation slightly improved, but the signs of improvement are not obvious (year-on-year data is still not ideal, slightly improved month-on-month data). The main focus of insurance is the improvement of the income side brought about by the potential interest rate hike cycle, and the asset quality improvement brought about by the policy fine-tuning of the real estate industry - we remind everyone to cherish the peace below 50 in the middle and second half of the third quarter, and there may be a lever spirit that you have also said that you cherish the peace below 70, but this is no problem, Ping An's profit this year, there is the full amount of Huaxia Happiness, and the turning point also appears in the debt solution of Huaxia Happiness. In fact, it is useless to say more, the investment choice of the interest rate hike cycle is not much, or cherish the peace of more than 50
A big advantage is that the Sino-US trade war that began in 2018 will soon have a good ending - China and the United States are likely to cancel the full trade war tariffs and levies, which is a script and plot that is not easy for us to wait for. The trade war has changed the direction of some industrial thinking and decision-making in the country, bringing about a series of policy changes including independent control and science and technology innovation board. From a crazy all-out offensive by the United States, to a key offensive that has not been caught, to a key defense that is not up to its word, to now, the tariff war on the trade war itself will enter a comprehensive end. Many people are worried about whether there will be policy repetition and retrogression in the autonomy and control of science and technology stocks, don't worry too much, vigorously develop the development autonomy of science and technology manufacturing, which is what we have fought, the United States does not have something from the battlefield, how can we self-destruct the Great Wall. Here I have a bold conjecture, maybe not right, there will be some hedging and compromise in the country (Kissinger's famous quote: the art of struggle is the art of compromise). It is likely that the local currency will appreciate through the script is feasible, if the appreciation of the local currency if there is an expectation, should we look at these varieties of airline stocks? Even if it is not large, the logical support is worth some attention
Performance disclosure is still continuing, from the performance situation that has been disclosed, nonferrous metals, chemicals, new energy vehicle materials, semiconductor materials, high-end liquor, etc. the data are very beautiful, which is also the highlight of the stock market this year, some people say that stock investment should follow the boom to invest, this sentence is not wrong, the prosperity brings liquidity to increase holdings, and then trigger the double-click of stock prices and performance, every year there is a resonance rise under the linkage of this performance and stock price. Which ones are worse? Pork is not talked about, the early stage of analysis, electronic products and automobiles this year's performance is not very ideal, real estate and insurance performance is not ideal, machinery and home appliances are not ideal. This year's point of mention is carbon neutrality and real estate regulation, the former is an opportunity, the latter is a risk, every year is, while the flames are seawater, a wave of uneven waves. I think this is inevitable, let's talk about less than ideal electronics, the reason is that the sales of mobile phones have shrunk very obviously, of course, many mobile phone industry chains have also turned to the new energy vehicle industry chain, typical of companies such as Sunwoda, before it was the battery PACK package on the smartphone industry, now only a part of the new energy vehicle battery supply has been realized, and the stock price has already risen to the sky. If it is completely ideal, we will think that the best performance of Great Wall Motors in recent years has not reached a record high, how good can Changan Automobile's performance be, sanan optoelectronics' three-generation semiconductor materials are now more like painting cakes, and the profit is not as good as in the LED era? But the market is irrational, more markets use imagination and increment to let us pay tuition, and long-term insight is not bad
Finally, talk about the market in the fourth quarter and this month's market, do make up, do undervaluation, do low, look at the strategy of the boom is generally no problem, in the near future we will analyze the performance opportunities of some potential varieties, the biggest difference between stock investment and gambling is that gambling is to guess the size, investment is very serious, how do you participate in the variety of pricing, why pricing, whether it is reasonable, how much room for growth, these can be measured, we do not complicate it, but emphasize that it is never simple.