'Post-pandemic world' is worth looking forward to – Interview with British Academy of Sciences Academician Alan McFarland Globalization is not the main reason for the pandemic "I am an optimist"

"The COVID-19 pandemic will not lead to a reversal of globalization, while populism and nationalism are receding"

Ma Guochuan, a researcher at Wen | Caijing

Edited | Su Qi

"The panic about the coronavirus reminds me of the last large-scale 'Black Death' in British history, the Great Plague of London in 1665," Alan McFarland, a member of the British Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with Caijing.

A world-renowned historian and anthropologist, MacFarlane has studied Western Europe, the Himalayas, and Japan. In the past year, he has completed 4 more books, so he laughs and says that "the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on me personally has been very positive".

The 80-year-old McFarland is still clear-thinking and quick-witted. He criticized the British government for being indecisive and inefficient during the coronavirus pandemic, praising the rapid and effective response of East Asian countries, "one of the main reasons is the high cohesion of East Asian cultures".

Thanks to the rapid spread of vaccines, people have seen the dawn at the end of the tunnel, but they are no longer confident about the future direction of the world situation. Unlike many pessimistic expectations, McFarland believes that the "post-pandemic world" is optimistic. The CORONAVIRUS pandemic will not lead to a reversal of globalization, while populism and nationalism are receding.

"The means are already available, but what is often lacking is the will to use the means," McFarlane said: "Only if we think positively and act rationally can we usher in a bright future." ”

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Caijing: How has the coronavirus pandemic affected your work? As a historian, what kind of historical moments have this pandemic reminded you of?

MCFARLANE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on me personally has been very positive, because I have been sitting quietly in the garden with more than 20,000 books for more than a year, writing and thinking with peace of mind. I have written four books, three of which are analytical autobiographies about my life and work, Magic and Modernity. Writing left me no time to do anything else.

The panic about the new crown virus reminds me of the last large-scale "Black Death" in human history, the Great Plague of London in 1665, which killed 100,000 people, almost one-fifth of the total population of the city at that time. The famous writer Daniel Defoe vividly described this in his 1722 book The Age of the Plague. Of course, compared to the Great Plague of London in 1665, the coronavirus was far less harmful.

Caijing: The international community has a different view of the UK government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a British citizen, how do you rate the UK Government's performance in this public health crisis?

McFarland: The British, especially the UK government, have been slow, indecisive and inefficient during the CORONAVIRUS pandemic. As a result, the UK has the highest rate of death and is probably the world's largest economy shrinking. It's a terrible record of bad. The coronavirus "test and track" system is also hopeless.

Now the UK has produced the AstraZeneca vaccine and also provides most of the genetic sequencing to test the world's new variants of the new coronavirus, but these two achievements have little to do with the government. In addition, the current promotion of vaccination in the UK is amazing, mainly due to the UK health service system.

Caijing: You have an in-depth study of East Asia. East Asian countries, including China, Japan, South Korea and other Countries, have better controlled the spread of the new crown virus, what do you think is the main reason?

MCFARLANE: One of the main reasons is the high cohesion of East Asian cultures, which puts the interests of the group above the interests of the individual, so people work very well together and the individual is willing to sacrifice himself for others. The high level of cooperation in places like Wuhan and the support between all parts of China are impressive. Given China's size and diversity, it even outperforms Japan and South Korea.

Caijing: During the coronavirus pandemic, the UK completed Brexit. Are you personally in favor of Brexit? In your opinion, what impact will this public health crisis have on the future of the EU?

MCFARLANE: As a historian, although I have written a lot about the cultural and social differences between the UK and the European continent, I did not vote for Brexit because Brexit was a stupid move based on lies and would seriously damage the interests of the UK. At present, the EU is not out of the woods very well, but I think this public health crisis has little impact on the EU, neither strengthening it nor weakening it.

Caijing: Brexit seems to cast a shadow on globalization. There is now a fear that globalization will strengthen the anti-globalization of recent years as the coronavirus spread around the world. Do you agree with this view? The COVID-19 pandemic has brought great disasters to all countries in the world, should we rethink and reconstruct globalization?

MCFARLANE: It's clear that in the age of globalization, people interacting with each other, especially traveling around, contributes to the rapid spread of COVID-19. But it would be naïve to think that globalization is the main cause of the viral pandemic. The more severe influenza pandemic of 1917-1919 preceded modern "globalization" and spread rapidly around the world. Critics of globalization may cite the coronavirus pandemic as an argument, but their fears and anxieties are caused by something else. Judging by current events, it is right to rethink what is happening with globalization, but I doubt that globalization can be reversed.

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Caijing: Many people say that the impact of the new crown virus pandemic on the world will exceed the Great Depression of 1929. Do you agree with this view?

MCFARLANE: I think it's going to have a smaller impact economically than it was during the Great Depression, but it could be more impactful in other ways, such as the way people work, the way they educate their children, and the way they spend their leisure time. From Donald Trump's failed campaign to changes in world politics, the coronavirus pandemic has been one of the main factors. As a result, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world is multi-layered, not limited to narrow economic aspects.

Caijing: Since the 2008 world financial crisis, nationalism and populism have risen in the world. Will this plague fuel nationalism, populism? Will it lead to the emergence of more political strongmen?

MCFARLANE: Interestingly, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have had the opposite effect. Populist leaders like former U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Bolzanaro have proven utterly useless in the coronavirus pandemic, and their influence is fading. The rising tides of populism and nationalism, wave after wave, are caused by many other factors that have gradually faded during the coronavirus pandemic.

Caijing: There are fears that the coronavirus pandemic will exacerbate international conflicts and even threaten to face a "Third World War.". Is this worry redundant? How do you avoid the worst?

MCFARLANE: That's unlikely. One effect of the coronavirus pandemic is that Trump's radical isolationism is over and Biden is rejoining all global organizations. The danger of a "Third World War" is minimal — and even if it happens, we won't know it will happen, because it will mean the destruction of all human life on Earth. There are clear tensions, especially since the relationship between the United States and China is worrisome (as analyzed in Graham Allison's book Destined for World War I). But that has little to do with the coronavirus pandemic.

Caijing: From a historical point of view, the impact of the plague on human beings is enormous. What does the CORONAVIRUS pandemic mean for humanity? What should humanity reflect on?

MCFARLANE: One thing to reflect on, that is the purpose of life. The coronavirus pandemic has slowed the pace of life in the West, making people think about what they really like and value — friendship, nature, reading, and many other things. It also gives us a better understanding of how the world is interconnected and that the old-fashioned patterns of nationalism, war and conflict are outdated. It also makes it clear that more power and decision-making should be transferred from the central to the local level, where there is a greater understanding of the community and a greater sense of community.

Caijing: With the popularity of vaccines, the covid-19 pandemic will eventually pass. But there are many pessimistic prophecies about the "post-pandemic world." Are you an optimist or a pessimist? What are your expectations for the world of the future?

McFarland: I'm an optimist in the "post-pandemic world." All the major problems – ecological destruction and climate change, growing inequality, growing strange diseases, the impact of social media, the struggles between different parts of the world – can be solved. If we really want to solve these problems, we just need to understand what is causing the threat, get a solution easily, and then go and implement it. The means are already available, but what is often lacking is only the will to use the means. At the global level, there has never been a moment in history when there are so many people in the world who are well fed, sheltered, laid-back, living in peace, well-educated and living in excellent conditions. However, we always want to make the world a better place, and indeed billions of people live in extreme poverty and poverty.

Therefore, there are many things to do, and only when we think positively and act rationally can we usher in a bright future.