Interview with Member Jin Li: The solution of the "one old and one small" problem can effectively promote the improvement of domestic demand

The Paper's reporter Jiang Mengying

In this year's government work report, in an overview of the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is proposed that the average life expectancy should be increased by another 1 year. Implement the national strategy of actively responding to the aging of the population, improve the population service system with the focus on "one old and one small", and promote the realization of a moderate fertility level.

Jin Li, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, prepared four proposals this year that are related to increasing fertility and optimizing population structure.

Jin Li said in an interview with The Paper on March 6 that China has only just entered the aging era, and may soon enter moderate or even severe aging at a faster rate than Japan, and aging may also breed the problem of "low birthrate". In 2019, China's aging rate reached the highest in the world, and 10 years later, the proportion of China's population aged 60 and over may reach 25% in 2030. In his view, the liberalization of the family planning policy alone would have a limited effect on increasing the birth rate. Other options need to be found to increase fertility.

Jin Li analyzed that Chinese civilization has a tradition of respecting the old and loving the young. In agrarian societies, there is a system of intergenerational upbringing based on family clans and neighborhoods. Nowadays, the society has undergone great changes, the "big family" has gradually declined, the old system has gradually dissolved, and the new system relying on the market has not yet been established, which requires the government to solve the lack of transition period. If young parents go to a new city, without the help of the elderly to take care of them, having children will become a very large family burden, resulting in a decline in fertility willingness and the intensification of the problem of low birthrate.

Jin Li pointed out that youth is the hope of life, and the elderly are the destination of life. Solving the problems of teenagers and the elderly well will solve the problem of where a nation comes from and where it will go, and also solve the problem of the original intention and mission of a society. The solution of the problem of "one old and one small" can effectively promote the improvement of domestic demand, so as to better build a super-large-scale domestic demand market.

Jin Li further said that in the pursuit of common prosperity in socialist society, the original intention and mission is to satisfy the aspirations of all the people for a better life to the greatest extent. Ensuring the needs of vulnerable groups is not only the ultimate goal of social and economic development, but also a specific path to further expand domestic demand. From the perspective of wealth management throughout the life cycle, income rises and falls at different stages of life, while basic consumption is relatively stable. According to the law of diminishing marginal utility, excessive fluctuations in consumption reduce overall well-being. The ideal state of consumption is to rise almost smoothly over time. According to Nobel laureate Modigliani's life cycle theory, everyone has a higher income in the middle and late part of the life cycle and will save a lot, while at the front end of the life cycle and at the end of retirement, it is often necessary to save against it. These two paragraphs, if they are not resourced enough and cannot receive other support, will often fall into liquidity difficulties and require special attention.

Editor-in-Charge: Zheng Jingxin

Proofreader: Shi Gong