The Paper's reporters Xie Ruiqiang and Chen Qinhan
Tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines, multi-warhead technology, hypersonic missiles... North Korea has recently focused on disclosing new developments in the field of nuclear weapons, and these technologies are only mastered by military frontiers or nuclear powers.
North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un's summary report at the Eighth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea on January 9 elaborated on nuclear capacity building, stating that "the completion of the great cause of building the country's nuclear forces is the strategic commanding height that must be first conquered in the journey of building a strong socialist country that we are pursuing." In order to safeguard the country's survival and independent development, we have vigorously promoted the construction of nuclear forces that have long been started. ”
Zhao Tong, a researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, pointed out to the www.thepaper.cn that after multiple nuclear tests and long-range/intercontinental missile tests, North Korea already has a preliminary nuclear strike capability, which has solved the problem of whether there is a nuclear strike and deterrence against the United States. The conference's summary reference to the development of nuclear weapons indicates that north Korea's current goal in developing nuclear forces has shifted toward improving the reliability, survivability and credibility of nuclear weapons.
The New York Times published an article noting that it was unclear how quickly North Korea could meet the ambitious weapons development goals set by Kim Jong-un.
Strategic nuclear weapons enhance deterrence credibility
The summary report made by Kim Jong-un introduced the future development direction of North Korea's nuclear weapons, which aroused great concern from the outside world. Previously, the outside world has been speculating that North Korea is developing multi-warhead technology, new strategic submarines, hypersonic warheads and other related technologies that are only mastered by nuclear powers, but most of the speculation is only based on the analysis of various intelligence.
The report notes that North Korea has made progress on multi-warhead technology and hypersonic missile technology. "Since the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the national defense scientific research department has continued to study the multi-warhead individual guidance technology, and has entered the final stage, and at the same time completed the development and research projects of various warheads with different combat tasks, such as the hypersonic gliding and flying warhead of the new ballistic rocket, and is now preparing to enter the trial production stage."
Data show that multi-warhead technology mainly includes cluster multi-warhead and sub-missile multi-warhead, the former is a multiple warhead to attack a target, the latter can attack different targets separately, so the latter is more advanced, its penetration ability and strike capability compared with the former have been greatly improved, but also the current major country intercontinental missile standard. The U.S. "Trident-2D5", Russia's "Yars" and "Brava" and other intercontinental missiles are equipped with sub-guided nuclear warheads.
"North Korea's previous test launch of the 'Hwasong-14' and 'Hwasong-15' missiles can only carry one warhead because of their limited carrying capacity, and in the context of the gradual advancement of the construction of the US anti-missile system, the outside world has questioned whether it can break through the anti-missile system," Zhao Tong said. ”
North Korea's new intercontinental missile demonstrated a launcher larger than the Hwasong-15 missile launcher.
Last October, North Korea unveiled a new intercontinental ballistic missile at the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea's founding of the Workers' Party, which was considered most likely to carry multiple warheads, was larger in size than the Hwasong-15 and increased the number of launchers from the 9-axis to 11-axis Hwasong-15. It is worth noting that Kim Jong-un also mentioned the missile in this report, "The giant missile carried by the 11-axis self-propelled launcher fully demonstrates the highest performance and strike capability achieved by China's nuclear forces." ”
Hwasong-15 missile.
After the missile was unveiled at the military parade, Yonhap News Agency quoted an analysis by Jang Yong-geun, a professor at the Korea Aviation University, that it was speculated that the new intercontinental ballistic missile was about 23 meters long, 2.3 meters to 2.4 meters in diameter, and used liquid propellant. The new missile is loaded on an 11-axis mobile launcher, which means that its weight is significantly higher than that of Hwasong-15, and it will weigh about 100 tons. Therefore, it is quite difficult to transport the new missile to the launch site with a mobile launch vehicle, so it is actually more suitable for the use of fixed missile silos. Although the new ICBM appears to be multi-warhead missiles, it remains unclear whether North Korea has achieved the lightweighting of the warhead mother module (PBV) required for multi-warhead ICBMs, Mr. Chang said.
U.S. submarine-launched missiles are equipped with multiple warheads and mother compartments
In addition to multi-warhead technology, the hypersonic missile technology mentioned by Kim Jong-un in his report is a military frontier technology that is currently the focus of major powers. Russia's Vanguard hypersonic missiles will be put on combat duty at the end of 2020, while the U.S. AGM-183A hypersonic missile will be put into service around 2022, and countries such as France, India and Japan are also stepping up the development of hypersonic missiles.
In addition to multi-warhead technology, hypersonic warheads can also improve penetration capabilities, thereby improving the reliability of nuclear deterrence, and it is expected that North Korea will conduct research in this area." This technology can be applied not only for nuclear missiles, but also for conventional missiles. Zhao Tong introduced.
At the same time, North Korea has also test-fired submarine-launched ballistic missiles several times in recent years, demonstrating its determination and strength to develop a sea-based nuclear force. On May 9, 2015, North Korea's first submarine-launched ballistic missile, polaris-1, was successfully tested. In October 2019, North Korean state media reported that the Dpron Academy of Defense Sciences successfully test-fired a new submarine-launched ballistic missile "Polaris-3" in the waters of Wonsan Bay in eastern North Korea, and the outside world estimated that the actual range of the missile could reach about 1900 kilometers. In July of that year, North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, also inspected North Korea's newly built submarines. North Korean state media reported that the submarine was about to be deployed to the eastern waters of North Korea to carry out combat missions.
North Korea test-fired the Polaris-3 submarine-launched missile.
Kim Jong-un also revealed in the report that North Korea is studying nuclear submarines. The report pointed out that North Korea's correct delineation of the target standard for the modernization of heavy submarine armament and the modification of the trial production have opened up great prospects for significantly improving the navy's existing underwater combat capabilities. The new nuclear submarine design research project has been completed and is in the final review phase. North Korea has also completed the design of various electronic weapons, drone attack weapons, reconnaissance detectors, and military reconnaissance satellites.
"Compared with the conventional submarines used as launch platforms in the past, the underwater endurance of nuclear submarines is longer, and once equipped with troops, it can enhance the deterrence of North Korea's sea-based nuclear forces." Zhao Tong said.
North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, inspects the new submarine under construction.
Cho Tong believes that the summary of the report of the conference mentions the development of nuclear weapons, indicating that the current development goal of the DPRK's nuclear forces has shifted to improving the reliability, survivability and credibility of nuclear weapons.
According to Liu Ming, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the new intercontinental missile presented at the military parade last October has theoretically reached a new level in terms of range, warhead weight, multiple warheads, and fuel loading. The new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the Polaris-3, also suggests that North Korea theoretically has a certain secondary nuclear strike force.
However, the nuclear and missile tests conducted by the DPRK are not full-range actual tests, but simulated tests in the coastal sea, and the whole process cannot be fully traced by satellite and sea, and the wreckage cannot be salvaged for research and analysis, which has brought relatively big problems to the DPRK's improvement and improvement of precision strike capabilities." From the current point of view, the ability of north Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles to re-enter the atmosphere, the precise positioning of targets, the miniaturization of warheads, and the ratio of warhead loading to range have not yet been confirmed to have been resolved, and North Korea's nuclear deterrent power in actual combat has yet to be proven. Liu Ming said.
Tactical nuclear weapons are a cause for concern
The above-mentioned multi-warhead technology, nuclear submarines, 11-axis new intercontinental missiles, etc. are more strategic nuclear weapons technologies, and the deterrent significance is greater than the actual combat significance, while the tactical nuclear weapons mentioned in this report are more suitable for use on the battlefield and have greater practical significance.
Kim Jong-un mentioned in the report, "Since the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China, nuclear technology has been further highly improved, and nuclear weapons have been small, lightweight, standardized, and tactically weaponized." North Korea has successively developed sophisticated nuclear tactical weapons such as the world's strongest new tactical rockets and medium- and long-range cruise missiles, thus mastering reliable military technology. ”
This is the first time north Korean officials have released information about the development of tactical nuclear weapons.
Tactical nuclear weapons are also known as "theater nuclear weapons" or "non-strategic nuclear weapons". According to the U.S. Department of Defense's Nuclear Handbook, "Non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons used in military situations, i.e., on the battlefield. In general, tactical nuclear weapons include: short-range ground-to-ground nuclear missiles, nuclear bombs carried by tactical aircraft, tactical cruise nuclear missiles, ship-to-ship and ship-to-air nuclear missiles, anti-submarine nuclear missiles, nuclear depth charges, nuclear artillery shells, nuclear mines, etc.
Tactical nuclear weapons are characterized by their small size, light weight, good maneuverability and high accuracy. The explosive power is 100 tons, 100 tons, 10,000 tons and 100,000 tons of TNT equivalent, and the explosive power of a few ground-to-ground tactical nuclear missiles can reach million tons of TNT equivalent.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union deployed a large number of tactical nuclear weapons. After the end of the Cold War, although the United States and Russia reduced the number of tactical nuclear weapons, they still maintained a certain number. In December 2019, then-U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary John Rod said Russia had more tactical nuclear bombs than the United States, and possibly more than 2,000.
In recent years, the United States has had a tendency to strengthen the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. In February 2020, the U.S. military confirmed that it had officially deployed a low-yield nuclear warhead code-named W76-2. The W76-2's low-yield nuclear warhead is mainly equipped with the Trident-2D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and its explosive yield is about 5,000 tons, which is much less than the 100,000 tons equivalent of the W76 warhead. In addition to submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the United States is also developing a nuclear cruise missile carrying a low-yield nuclear warhead. The U.S. Air Force's new B61-12 nuclear bomb has been dropped on multiple types of fighters, and the Air Force will also have precision-guided tactical nuclear weapons in the future.
"North Korea develops tactical nuclear weapons to offset the superiority of conventional U.S. and South Korean forces." Cho Tong pointed out that "tactical nuclear weapons have less yield, better mobility, more concealment, and are suitable for use on the battlefield, and the launch platforms such as the Polaris-3 missile and the super large rocket artillery that North Korea has tested in recent years can be used to carry tactical nuclear weapons." ”
Both North Korea and the United States possess nuclear weapons, and whether North Korea's use of tactical nuclear weapons in a conventional war will trigger nuclear war or nuclear conflict will become a hot topic of discussion. In Cho Tong's view, North Korea's tactical nuclear weapons can have the effect of deterring South Korea and the United States in peacetime, warning South Korea and the United States not to act rashly because of their conventional military superiority, and in wartime, they can change the unfavorable war situation for themselves by using tactical nuclear weapons once or twice and using strategic nuclear weapons as backing.
For the first time, a message was delivered to Biden: "Strong to strong, good to good"
At the Eighth National Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, Kim Jong-un introduced the achievements made in strengthening the country's nuclear war containment power and self-defense forces, pointed out the DPRK's status as a "nuclear-bearing country", built a flawless nuclear shield, and enhanced its strategic containment power. "This sends a clear signal to the country and abroad."
Li Feng, a researcher at the American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to the surging news that for the DPRK, when the domestic economy encounters difficulties, the demonstration of military development capabilities mainly plays a role in uniting the people and enhancing the self-confidence of the Workers' Party in ruling. The message conveyed to the outside world is that the DPRK has a strong military capability, and in this context, the DPRK's "chips" in foreign negotiations have also increased, and it hopes that the ROK and the United States will face up to the DPRK's military capabilities and abandon its hostile policy toward the DPRK, otherwise the DPRK will have the ability to strike at the ROK and the United States, especially the United States.
Mr. Kim's speech at North Korea's Eighth National Congress coincided with a period of regime change in the United States and was of extraordinary significance to the incoming Biden administration. CNN reported that this is the first time that the Dprk side has delivered a message to President-elect Joe Biden, a statement that proves that North Korea is not eager to negotiate with the new US administration. Analysis by the BBC also pointed out that Kim's speech was intended to put pressure on the new US government.
Since 2018, the leaders of the DPRK and the United States have met in Singapore, Vietnam and Panmunjom to seek to narrow their differences on the path to denuclearization. However, the US side has never taken substantive measures in response to north Korea's concerns and lifted sanctions against the DPRK. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump's second summit in Hanoi ended in vain, and negotiations on the denuclearization of the peninsula reached an impasse. In July 2020, North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs still said it had no intention of sitting down with the United States for dialogue.
"Strong to strong, good to good." This is the policy toward the United States as stated in the original Korean version of the Eighth National Congress Report. Li Pointed out that this means that North Korea has kicked the ball to the United States, and if the United States adheres to a strong policy, then North Korea also has enough ability to "strong against strong." Lee Sang believes that Biden is facing many important problems at home and abroad after taking office, and the North Korean nuclear issue should not be a foreign affair that he prioritizes, "Biden is currently unwilling to meet with Kim Jong-un unconditionally, and the conditions he proposed for meeting are 'Kim Jong-un agrees to weaken nuclear capabilities' and tends to use bottom-up diplomacy." If the Biden administration simply unilaterally advances the bottom-up NORTH-U.S. dialogue, it is expected to be difficult because any denuclearization dialogue in North Korea at the working level needs to be approved by the upper echelons. ”
As early as 2017, Kim In-yong, the DPRK's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, bluntly said that the US hostile policy toward the DPRK is the "root cause of all problems" and that the cessation of the US hostile policy is the prerequisite for resolving the DPRK issue. And North Korea now adheres to that principle. In this regard, Liu Ming believes that the DPRK demands that the United States completely abandon its policy of hostility toward the DPRK, in other words, to establish diplomatic relations with the DPRK first, to build a peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula, and to agree to the international community to provide economic assistance to the DPRK. "This is impossible for the United States to do, but with the prospect of denuclearization going unchecked, the United States cannot tolerate North Korea's continued nuclear possession and increased nuclear and missile capabilities." Therefore, the medium-range solution of seeking a permafrost and controlled development and easing some economic sanctions may be the largest common denominator of the United States and North Korea. Liu Ming said.
Although the road to denuclearization of the peninsula is tortuous and the RIGID POLICY of the United States toward North Korea has also brought the North Korean nuclear issue to an impasse, Kim Jong-un reiterated at the Eighth National Congress: "As long as aggressive hostile forces do not use nuclear weapons against North Korea, North Korea will not abuse nuclear weapons." ”
Editor-in-charge: Hu Zhenqing
Proofreader: Shi Gong