When did the Black Thursday spell begin? Is there really one? Is this really the case?

The strategy is very simple, nothing to say, that is, the small position does not move

Compared with those stock gods who break their stocks and predict the rise and fall, I am a person who believes in randomness.

I also do not believe that individuals have the ability to completely beat the market, nor do I believe in the ability of individuals to choose stocks or timing.

My goal is to keep up with the market when it's up.

Reduce your positions when the broader market is falling and minimize losses.

Therefore, I don't say what to buy today, what to buy tomorrow, I don't have that ability, and I don't want to delay others.

Therefore, in the shock market, my strategy is to cover the stock with small positions and not move, and the itchy hands take half of the positions out to play!

Fight fast and withdraw quickly!

Otherwise find something for yourself to do!

Trading well, can't control the hand, a lifetime is a loss of life!

Black Thursday's spell

On January 28, 2021, A shares suffered a Black Thursday, falling by 1.9 trillion yuan in one day.

However, it is puzzling that low-level stocks have good fundamentals and performance, but stock prices have repeatedly been weak and volatile.

Individual stocks with soaring performance are still struggling at the bottom!

Like the current market?

When did the famous Black Thursday Spell begin?

The earliest public report on Black Thursday came from the Qilu Evening News on May 12, 2006:

In bull markets, Thursdays tend to be black. This law has been fulfilled many times in the short-selling market this year.

According to statistics, since February 9 this year, there have been 12 Thursdays, of which only two days have seen a slight rise in the market, and the remaining 10 days have fallen, of which 4 days have fallen by more than 20 points.

At that time, it was the most brilliant era of opening the A-share Shanghai Composite Index!

After that, Black Thursday became a lingering shadow of A shares.

Why is there such a statement?

Some people have analyzed that this is because A shares T+1, sold on Thursday, can only get money on Friday.

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="38" is this really the case >? </h1>

I counted that the Shanghai Composite Index had a total of 7534 trading days as of October 21, 2021, a single-day decline of more than 4%, a total of 203, of which 40 were Thursdays, which was basically one-fifth.

In other words, there is no such thing as a big fall on Thursday, and there is no day of the week in the day of the big fall.

In the 15 days of the stop (I define more than 9% as a stop), only one is Thursday, but six are Mondays, which shows that black Mondays are quite appropriate, because the news on the weekend will be reflected on Monday.

<col>

date

Ticker symbol

name

Price

1995-5-23 Tue

'000001

Shanghai

-16.3937

1993-12-20 Monday

-13.0764

1994-8-9 Tuesday

-12.6749

1993-3-22 Monday

-11.7507

1992-10-27 Tuesday

-11.1769

1994-10-5 Wed

-10.7097

1994-10-13 Thursday

-10.637

1993-3-1 Monday

-10.4599

1992-8-11 Tuesday

-10.443

1993-5-24 Monday

-10.301

1992-12-9 Wed

-10.278

1996-12-16 Monday

-9.911

1992-8-12 Wed

-9.5204

1996-12-17 Tuesday

-9.4441

1992-10-26 Monday

-9.4313

Therefore, the so-called spell does not exist, but it is just to scare yourself.

The probability of a rise or fall is basically the same.

Or the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, a total of 3558 days of rise, 3976 days of decline, basically or down a little more, the probability of rising is 47%, the probability of falling is 53%, so you want to say that A shares will fall today, the accuracy rate is a little higher.

Therefore, the result is random, then resign yourself to the destiny and do your best.

What is the best personnel, control the hand, control the position, reduce the loss.

(Disclaimer: This study is only my research and does not have any effect and role in guiding investment, and the securities mentioned in the article are only necessary and do not constitute any investment advice.) Reproduction without the author's permission is prohibited. ）