Berlin Peace Talks: Can the international community help complete the start for Russia and Turkey in war-torn Libya?
Haftar and the Russian Foreign Minister
After a decade of chaos brought about by regime change, negotiations in Berlin by Libya's warring factions could eventually lead to a lasting ceasefire. Can the mediation efforts initiated by Russia and Turkey bear fruit?
Eyes are on Berlin both inside and outside Europe as Prime Minister Fayyaz Salaghi of libya's Government of National Reconciliation (GNA) and Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar arrive in Berlin on Sunday for german-sponsored peace talks with representatives of 11 countries, including Russia.
Libya's National Reconciliation Government has been internationally recognized since 2015, but now Haftar's army controls most of Libya except for the capital Tripoli and the surrounding area.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar met in Moscow on January 14, but no agreement was reached.
The consequences of the collapse are not limited to Libyans. Migrants from sub-Saharan Africa have taken advantage of anarchy to cross the Mediterranean to Europe, and even warlords have captured people for slave trade and run the risk of crowded boats drowning en masse on the way. In September 2012, militants attacked the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, killing four Americans, including an ambassador, and affecting the United States.
Battlefields in Libya
Eventually, Haftar's army rose in the east, a challenge to the legitimacy of Libya's national reconciliation government. In 2016, the two sides launched a war, fast forward to 2020, and the conflict has reached a boiling point.
Several countries in the world have declared their support for one of them, notably Turkey, which is ready to send troops to the Libyan National Reconciliation Government and military experts to train soldiers against the Libyan National Army. But Turkey is not alone, and Greece is now threatening to send a "force" of its own to support Haftar in its attack on Turkey. If proxy war does break out, what former Gaddafi general Egypt and Gulf states ————, which has been supporting for years, is an open question.
Enemies of the enemy are my friends? After the Turkish army began reinforcing the Libyan National Reconciliation Government, the Greek "troops" were ready to deploy to Libya.
While Europe has been alarmed by developments for many years and has repeatedly warned of the consequences of intervention, developments across the ocean cannot be generalized. Washington's sudden interest in Libya was once again until Haftar's conquest of Tripoli seemed imminent, but the offensive apparently bogged down in the months that followed. There are reports that U.S. President Donald Trump has called Haftar, a Libyan-American citizen, to support his campaign and send diplomats to contact him. Whatever diplomacy is involved, it doesn't help, and the U.S. State Department is preoccupied with blaming Libya's plight on what it calls "Russia's destabilizing presence."
The real forces for peace come from Russia and Turkey, which, despite their disagreements on the Middle East conflict, are clearly close to consensus.
Moscow Talks Communiqué
The culmination of this effort was a meeting in Moscow at which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Ministers mediated political talks between Saraghi and Haftar, while Defense Ministers Sergei Shoigu and Hurusi Akar dealt with military matters.
The Moscow talks, however, did not lead to the signing of a ceasefire, but marked a major development. Just a week ago, Haftar flatly rejected calls for a joint ceasefire between Putin and Turkish Foreign Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even declaring a holy war against Turkish troops sent to Libya to support a national reconciliation government. Italy's attempts to mediate between the two factions also failed, as Saraghi declined the invitation when he discovered that Hafta would be in Rome.
Now, German officials believe an agreement can be reached when the two factions of leaders sit down in Berlin, with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas publicly saying Haftar is "in principle" prepared to commit to a ceasefire.
Turkey
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed cautious optimism, saying he wanted Berlin to "go as planned." He did note on Friday that Haftar and Saraj "don't even want to be in the same room" and urged the two leaders not to "repeat the mistakes of the past, not to start proposing strings attached, to blame each other".
The Moscow talks offer an opportunity for Libya to reach peace in the bloody civil war that followed NATO intervention, and it is also the political will of Western governments, some of which are apparently wary of The centrality of Russian diplomacy, which leaders must take into account.
Russia and Germany facilitated peace talks
After the United States reached out to Haftar to test the waters before it retreated, Russia may be the only country that has enough respect from both factions to make it an effective mediator. Putin's participation in the Berlin talks undoubtedly shows that Moscow is serious about completing this operation and achieving lasting peace, including cooperation with Turkey, a key player.
In Berlin on Sunday, it remains to be seen whether Russia's central role in resolving the crisis will be recognized and whether political wisdom triumphs over jealousy and mistrust.