Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Yu Siyi
On October 20, at the inaugural Conference of the Boao Forum for Asia Global Economic Development and Security Forum, a number of sub-forums on financial risks were held at the same time.
At the sub-forums "Preventing Financial Risks: Grey Rhinoceros, Black Swans and Breakwaters" and "World Economic Outlook: Certainty and Uncertainty", Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute of Chinese Min University, Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University, and Li Yang, Chairman of the National Laboratory of Finance and Development, all put forward the same view: debt risk needs to be taken seriously.
"Will the default of large private enterprises' loans and debts now spread? Similar to this is the debt of local governments, which cannot be sold now, where does the local government's fiscal revenue come from, and how to repay the bonds issued before? Wu Xiaoqiu pointed out worriedly.
The "gray rhinoceros" that Li Yang is most worried about is real estate. He pointed out that the mechanism of China's real estate market has not been straightened out, and the financial supply on the supply side is not only related to land, but also related to local government finance, which makes solving this problem highly complicated.
Li Daokui also agrees with Li Yang's point of view, "The current debt level is very high, including not only corporate debt, production sector, non-financial sector debt, but also the actual local debt level." Once the real estate market is not handled properly, it will become a fuse and trigger a further downturn in economic growth. ”
"The risk is not very terrible, the terrible thing is that when the risk comes, we have no countermeasures, no risk immunity, and after the risk, we have no regeneration ability." Wu Xiaoqiu spoke with a heavy heart.
Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean of the China Capital Market Research Institute of Chinese Min University
<h2 toutiao-origin="h5" real estate is > the largest "gray rhinoceros"</h2>
Wu Xiaoqiu first pointed out that there are problems in China's financial sector that must arouse great attention, "Will the default of large private enterprises' loan debts now spread, and the current debt defaults are slowly 'infected'." Wu Xiaoqiu believes that the relevant departments should think about the reasons for this problem. How to deal with it?
Wu Xiaoqiu further pointed out that similar to this problem is the debt of local governments. "Now that land cannot be sold, where does the local government's fiscal revenue come from?" How to repay the bonds issued before? Wu Xiaoqiu believes that of course, treasury bonds will not default, especially all kinds of debt issued by local government financing platforms should be highly valued, and the two are superimposed with greater risk.
Li Yang believes that real estate is the biggest "gray rhinoceros". He pointed out that the mechanism of China's real estate market has not been straightened out, specific to real estate finance, the real estate financial system in various countries in the world is mainly from the demand side, while China includes both supply and demand, not to mention that loans to developers usually dominate in loans.
"This situation makes China's market different from other countries, and the financial supply on the supply side of China is not only related to land, but also related to local government finance, which makes solving this problem highly complicated." Li Yang said.
In Li Yang's view, after decades of development, China's real estate market has reached an inflection point. He noticed that there have been several landmark events recently, such as the occurrence of land auctions in some cities; the two-way regulation of the property market to limit the rise and fall. "During the Asian financial crisis, it took the Hong Kong government six or seven years to deal with negative assets. At the moment, we must be careful, if we let the crisis go by a thousand miles, the impact is very large. ”
Li Daokui also pointed out that it is necessary to realize that the current debt level is very high, including not only corporate debt, production sector, and non-financial sector debt, but also the actual local debt level. Once the real estate industry market is not properly handled, it will become a fuse and trigger a further economic growth downturn.
But Li Daokui said that China's real estate market is still diversified, like some big cities Shanghai, Shenzhen just needs still exist, so it can not be one-size-fits-all.
"Now there is an opportunity to call on cities that just need more residential land to auction, on the one hand, to stabilize the trend of rising local prices, on the other hand, to further help related real estate developers." Li Daokui thinks.
Li Yang also agrees that it is not possible to set a one-size-fits-all approach and to have a soft landing. "From the side of the residents, the funds provided to the market cannot be broken, even if the house price falls. But loans to developers have to deal with problems that have already been exposed. ”
< h2 toutiao-origin="h5" > a global debt crisis could come</h2>
At present, the global economy is facing profound changes. In Li Daokui's view, in the next two to three years, the global economy has three major risks, and once it is not handled well, the world will enter a recession.
Li Daokui pointed out that the first risk is debt risk. According to the International Finance Association, it is up 12%, and on the basis of GDP, it is up about 48%. If not handled well, emerging-market countries are at risk of recession.
Second, there is a risk of a carbon recession. At present, countries around the world, especially developed countries, are carrying out carbon reduction, but alternative technologies are not mature, so in the next few years, there will be a huge increase in energy costs.
Third, the decline of supply chains. After the epidemic, many developed countries, based on the withdrawal of supply chains from China and other countries to their own countries, is bound to bring about an increase in global production costs, which may lead to a decline in production.
In this regard, with regard to the debt crisis, Li Daokui suggested that all countries should speed up debt restructuring, and China, as a responsible major country, must be willing to deal with international debt based on the principle of fairness. Regarding the decline of the supply chain, Li Daokui called on all countries not to fight their own battles, to respect the laws of economic development, and not to easily break the industrial chain layout that has been formed.
Li Yang also agrees with Li Daokui's judgment, li Yang said that since the world has shifted to the credit currency standard, it has made the inflation of debt and currency more serious. "The sharp contraction of debt in the United States will also have an adverse impact on the world, which means that the reduction of global liquidity has had many unexpected impacts on the liquidity and monetary policy of various markets."
Regarding the carbon recession, Li Yang mentioned that China's carbon reduction is too urgent, and emerging energy sources are greatly affected by the weather. "Carbon reduction is a good thing, but carbon reduction is a big thing, and we must move forward steadily, otherwise it will bring us disaster." The United States, Europe, and the world are preparing for one of the most expensive winters. In fact, there is nothing wrong with the world's productive capacity, and this 'most expensive winter' is man-made. ”
In addition, Li Yang also mentioned that the digitization of existing industries has created a digital divide. "The digital divide between different countries, coupled with the fact that digitalization is not constrained or regulated, will harm the interests of ordinary people." Digitalization inevitably zeros out many industries, which is what is called creative destruction in development economics. ”
<h2 toutiao-origin="h5" > cannot refuse to "go out" for fear of risk</h2>
"We need to build a financial system that has strong immunity, and after financial risks, we must have the ability to regenerate." For the prevention of financial risks, Wu Xiaoqiu made an analogy, "Modern society is full of cars, if you are afraid of being hit by a car, it is difficult for you to go out." You have to build a recognition system , a traffic light system , and that's fine, it's not that as soon as you go out and see so many cars, you're scared and don't go out. The risk is not very terrible, the terrible thing is that when the risk comes, we have no response, no risk immunity, and there is no regeneration ability after the risk. ”
In Wu Xiaoqiu's view, we should pay attention to financial risks, but do not pay too much attention, we should spend too much time on the reform of the financial system. "We must improve the function of China's finance by reforming the diversity of products, and the modern financial system must be functionally diversified, which can only be completed through market-oriented reform." In order to prevent risks, the most important thing in the core of finance is to have a credit screening ability, so it is necessary to promote technology to improve the credit screening of these traditional financial long-tail customers. ”
Wu Xiaoqiu said that China's finance must go out, "behind closed doors can not achieve a so-called modern financial system." ”
Wu Xiaoqiu believes that in the future, China's financial market, especially the capital market, should become a new wealth management center and RMB asset trading center. Wu Xiaoqiu further pointed out that in the future, with the deepening of opening up, the reform of the renminbi as the most elementary and resource transaction will be completed. "The goal of making the renminbi a freely tradable currency should be achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period."
However, Wu Xiaoqiu also pointed out that in 2015, the "811" exchange rate reform gave people a warning, and in a short period of time after the exchange reform, foreign exchange reserves fell sharply. Therefore, at present, we must consolidate the legal foundation for the internationalization of the renminbi, let the market have confidence in the renminbi, and at the same time maintain the innovation ability and sustainable growth of the economy, so as to provide a stable cornerstone for the renminbi.
"At present, the renminbi is still appreciating, and the future will be completely free to trade, what will be the trend of the renminbi exchange rate, and what risks will it bring to the entire national financial system?" Wu Xiaoqiu said frankly that the relevant departments should take the "811" reform as the background for thinking about the problem, think deeply, and will find a good way to deal with it.
<h1 toutiao-origin="h1" > Wang Hao said that the fortune video number opened and clicked to watch, sneak peek! ▼</h1>
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