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Introduction: In the first half of the year, the domestic Cherry Valley meat and duck market as a whole showed a trend of rising and falling, and as of the end of June, the market situation has been "beaten back to the original point". What exactly did the meat and duck market "go through"? Can the second half of the year "break the game"? This article will comprehensively take stock of the meat and duck market in the first half of the year, analyze the changes in the supply and demand relationship of the market, and predict the market in the second half of the year.
Trading turned light In the first half of the year, the meat duck market showed a downward trend
As of the end of June, the price has dropped to the same level as the low point at the beginning of the year; the average price of eggs, duck seedlings and meat ducks is 1.87 yuan / piece, 2.76 yuan / feather, 4.38 yuan / jin, respectively, an increase of 36.42%, 41.25%, 7.53%, and a year-on-year increase of 71.65%, 108.74% and 34.23% respectively. As can be seen from Figure 1, the highest price point of the above products appeared in February, affected by the early production, the amount of duck fry and meat duck out of the barn was significantly reduced, and the supply side support price rose significantly; the lowest point in June, on the one hand, affected by the high temperature weather, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the fence declined, on the other hand, affected by the weak product goods, the amount of slaughtering enterprises to purchase and the amount of seedlings were reduced, and the prices of duck seedlings and meat ducks both fell.
Figure 1
Incubation losses have increased, and the pace of enterprise de-capacity has accelerated
Figure 2
Combined with the cost and sales price, compared with the breeding and slaughtering links, the loss of the incubation link is relatively serious. Affected by the sharp decline in the price of duck seedlings in the first half of the year, the profit of the purchased egg hatchery fell from 4 yuan / feather to -1.70 yuan / feather, the largest decline was as high as 142.50%; the average profit value of the hatchery was 0.58 yuan / feather, an increase of 350.91% month-on-month and 166.91% year-on-year.
Figure 3
The most direct indicator of duck fry prices and hatchery profits is the number of seedlings. Zhuo Chuang information data show that in the first half of the year, the sample enterprises produced a total of 551.72 million pigeons, an increase of 5.76% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.72%. Affected by the continuous increase in duck seedling prices in January and February, the profit of incubation has increased significantly, and the introduction and expansion of breeding poultry enterprises have increased, resulting in a continuous increase in the supply of domestic duck seedlings from March to June. The volume increase and price increase fell, the profits in the incubation link were seriously damaged, small and medium-sized enterprises were forced to eliminate the old duck, the head enterprises went to production capacity of more than 5%, and the enthusiasm for introducing seeds declined significantly.
Duck products are not fast, and the market performance is weak
Figure 4
In the first half of the year, the domestic COVID-19 epidemic was effectively controlled, and all aspects of catering and consumption were in the recovery stage. From Figure 4, it can be clearly seen that the domestic chicken and duck products and white strip pork prices are showing a downward trend, and the average price of duck white strips in the first half of the year is 10,051 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.06% month-on-month and 14.72% year-on-year. The highest point of price is consistent with duck fry and meat duck, both in February, supply and demand are both boosted, and product prices rose to 12233 yuan / ton. The lowest price point appeared in late June, affected by the continuous decline in domestic pork and chicken prices, the product middleman took the goods reduced, the duck products slowed down, the pressure on manufacturers to ship increased significantly, and the product price fell to 8900 yuan / ton, a total decline of 27.25%.
Figure 5
After the end of the Spring Festival stocking period, the storage capacity ratio of slaughtering enterprises rose under pressure, from the lowest point of 39% during the Spring Festival to 77%, further confirming the weak operation of the product market. The profitability of the slaughtering link is not good, the enthusiasm of the enterprise slaughter is insufficient, and although the enterprise has recovered after the Spring Festival, there is still a significant decline compared with the previous period. In the first half of the year, the operation and storage capacity rates of key monitored meat and duck slaughtering enterprises were 55.95% and 63.68%, respectively, down 18.19% and 13.91% respectively, and down 15.47% and 2.99% year-on-year, respectively.
The supply and demand game is still fierce, and the meat duck market may rise first and then fall in the second half of the year
Figure 6
Based on the premise that the epidemic is controllable and the policy trend does not change, we make the following assessment of the relationship between supply and demand. On the supply side, affected by high temperature weather in the third quarter, the egg fertilization rate of breeding ducks fell by 3%-8%, coupled with the operation of enterprises to reduce production capacity, double factors, the supply of domestic duck seedlings or stable reduction, meat duck out of the barn or followed by lower. In the fourth quarter, production capacity recovered slightly, and the amount of meat and duck out of the pen rose or rose at a low level. On the demand side, duck products are cool products, sales have obvious off-peak seasons, it is expected that the products in the third quarter may improve, and the fourth quarter or under pressure will fall. In terms of alternatives, the focus is on changes in the pork and chicken markets. Zhuo Chuang Information expects that the domestic meat duck market in the second half of the year may show a trend of first rising and then falling, and the average price is slightly lower than that in the first half of the year.
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