Yao Yao of Guojin Securities: Preferably rebound tram photovoltaic

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Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network News: Select the best analyst in the new energy industry Guojin Securities Yao Yao team said in the research report that the overall impact of the epidemic is small, and the rebound is preferred for tram photovoltaics.

Its core ideas are as follows:

Important events this week: the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Energy Bureau issued a number of renewable energy-related policy documents; Tesla's 2019Q4 performance exceeded expectations; the State Grid and China Southern Grid issued documents to postpone project bidding; and the National Bureau of Statistics released the January PMI index.

Plate configuration suggestions: rebound is preferably affected by the epidemic, policy-catalyzed trams, photovoltaics, while the long-term configuration logic of each sub-industry is unchanged, low-cost positioning: photovoltaic manufacturing and battery/material leaders with large space and good patterns, and energy Internet, industrial control, and low-voltage electrical appliances that are in line with the development trend of the industry.

New energy power generation: The impact of the epidemic on domestic photovoltaic terminal demand is mainly reflected in the delay rather than disappearance, and interprovincial logistics restrictions in the short term or slightly affect the transportation of raw materials and finished products.

On January 30, the Energy Bureau issued a special emergency document, requiring power companies to scientifically determine the time for resuming work, and it is strictly forbidden to rush the progress and rush the construction period. It is expected that some of the 2019 deferred bidding projects that were originally planned to grab the Q1 grid will be postponed to Q2, but it is not expected to have a significant impact on the domestic installed capacity in the first half of the year and the whole year.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the leading enterprises in each link maintain a high operating rate during the Spring Festival due to the full Q1 orders, because there is no large number of workers flowing, and the raw materials are sufficiently stocked, the production end is basically unaffected; but due to the large-scale restriction of interprovincial logistics, especially in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas where component factories are densely distributed, the transportation of related raw materials and finished products is temporarily restricted. We judge that if the return to the city in the coming week is not accompanied by the worsening of the epidemic, logistics is expected to gradually recover after 10 days. At present, it is expected that the leading enterprises will not be significantly affected by the epidemic throughout the year and the shipments and performance of Q1, and a number of policy documents jointly issued by the three ministries and commissions before the holiday will be positive for the sector as a whole

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