In recent months, the relevant reports on "coal overwind" have emerged in an endless stream, from a coal is difficult to find to a futures full contract stop, in just a few days, the market changes like three autumns.
In the medium to long term, since March last year, coal prices have risen by more than 190%. Since August 17 this year, the price of thermal coal futures has risen from the initial 800 yuan / ton to 1982 yuan / ton, and the unit price has risen by as much as 1.5 times, which is rare.
The almost crazy price increase in coal prices has directly had a great adverse impact on China's economic operation, power supply, winter heating, etc., and the economy and people's livelihood are obvious.
In this regard, the state attaches great importance to it, and has successively introduced a number of policies to strictly prevent the disorderly development of the coal market. On October 20, the coal "three brothers" who were in the period of sharp rise collapsed instantly - coking coal fell by 8.99%, coke fell by 8.99%, thermal coal fell by 8.01%, and the full contract of thermal coal futures fell to a halt.
Overnight,000 changes are like thrilling roller coasters.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="6" > traced back to its roots, and the imbalance between supply and demand is the core reason for the rise in coal prices</h1>
China is the world's largest coal-producing country and is rich in coal reserves. At present, it has been proven that the world's coal storage is about 1.4 trillion tons, of which more than 1/10 of the storage is in China, accounting for the second largest scale after the United States and Russia.
It is reasonable to say that China's coal production is large, supply and demand balance, there should be no price surge caused by short supply and demand, what is the reason for this year's abnormal coal price trend? Through careful analysis of industry-related news reports and import and export data, it is found that there are three main root causes behind the fluctuation of coal prices:
1. A variety of reasons restrict coal imports, inducing an imbalance between supply and demand in the market
Although China is the world's first coal-producing country, but the population is large, the market demand is also very large, coal is the most important traditional energy source in China. Since 2008, China has shifted from a big coal exporter to a big coal importer, and the import volume of coal has shown a rising trend year by year.
In fact, in recent years, there has been a frequent energy shortage in Europe, which has made it difficult for the international coal market to meet China's import demand. This year's epidemic has aggravated the imbalance between supply and demand in the international coal market – affected by the epidemic, the price of maritime transport has soared, which has directly led to a sharp decline in China's coal imports.
Customs import and export data show that from July 2020 to November this year, China's coal imports decreased by 50 million tons, a decline of 36%.
2. The elimination of backward production capacity is accelerated, and it is difficult for new energy to make up for the energy gap in the short term
Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the elimination of backward production capacity has become the main theme of economic development, and China has taken the initiative to eliminate more than 5,000 small and medium-sized coal enterprises. In the face of the current "carbon neutrality" goal, it has accelerated the elimination of some backward production capacity in the coal industry with serious waste of resources.
After a large number of small and medium-sized coal enterprises withdrew from the market, in the short term, China's new energy replacement port is large, it is difficult to make up for it in the first time, and the supply and demand of the domestic coal market have begun to be unbalanced, which has also boosted the rise in coal prices to a certain extent.
3. Capital takes the opportunity to speculate, and "scalpers" hoard coal juqi lead to coal outages
The continuous rise in coal prices in the international and domestic markets has allowed many investors to see new opportunities to make money, and they will set their sights on the special product of coal, waiting for the opportunity to hoard coal in large quantities, hoping to sell after coal prices have risen sharply to a high level to make huge profits.
At this point, under the dual influence of the imbalance between supply and demand in the international and domestic coal markets, coupled with the fuel of unscrupulous capital, it eventually led to the abnormal situation that coal was robbed by the market, and the upstream and downstream enterprises of coal that really used coal could not buy coal, and then the price of coal soared by 190%.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="19" > where will coal prices go in the future? </h1>
The stability of coal prices and the security of coal supply are not only market problems and people's livelihood problems, but also directly related to China's economic security and energy security.
As winter approaches, northern heating is imminent, and this time the state has struck hard to "ensure supply and stabilize prices", and the people have clapped their hands and applauded. Therefore, the various policy details in this action, as well as the final market effect, and when coal prices will return to the right track, have aroused great concern from many parties. As far as the current situation is concerned, the market confidence is very strong.
First, the effect of the policy combination fist is immediate, fundamentally curbing the rise in coal prices. It can be seen from the various policies successively introduced by the state on October 21 that the state is determined to rectify and regulate the coal market and resolutely not allow coal prices to soar abnormally.
For example, the coal exchange has comprehensively upgraded the restrictions on coal trading, and the limit of the thermal coal futures contract has been adjusted to 10%, which has an immediate effect - the price of coal futures and the price of the secondary market have fallen sharply.
The second is to rationally dispatch coal production and supply, and solve the contradiction between coal supply and demand in the short term. Since the end of September, China has approved the addition of a number of new coal production mines, and it is strictly forbidden to shut down coal production enterprises without authorization, so as to ensure energy supply.
At present, the average daily output of coal has increased by more than 1.2 million tons compared with September, and the daily output of October 18 is more than 11.6 million tons, setting a new high this year. At the same time, at present, the national unified power plant has nearly 88 million tons of coal, which can be used for 16 days, an increase of more than 9 million tons over the beginning of the month, and the coal market is expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand as soon as possible.
This series of regulatory measures will comprehensively curb the recurrence of "coal overwind".
Write at the end:
The abnormal fluctuation of coal prices has greatly pushed up the production costs of downstream industries, adversely affecting the power supply and winter heating, and all aspects of society have reacted strongly. The state has repeatedly stressed that coal should not be hoarded for malicious speculation, but there are still people who hold the psychology of luck to commit crimes against the wind and make the entire market a miasma.
Coal security is related to national energy security, and the country's heavy hand will not only not be absent nor late, but also must be ruthless. In summary, from the comprehensive perspective of the national attitude and market environment, the people do not have to worry too much about the continuous rise in coal prices, and all acts of maliciously disrupting the market will be struck hard by the socialist iron fist.