At the end of last week, the real estate industry left a big news: the real estate tax pilot is coming.
How is real estate tax charged? There is no conclusive conclusion, but the expropriation of personal real estate is likely to escape the number of real estate units and housing area.
What is the current situation of family housing in Shaanxi? The newly released 2021 statistical yearbook shows that the per capita housing area of urban residents in Shaanxi is 38.7 square meters. That is to say, a family of three, the average housing area is about 116.1 square meters, equivalent to a three-bedroom apartment.
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There is no longer a shortage of housing in towns
Rural housing is more abundant
At the beginning of this year, Feng Lun, a real estate tycoon, said in a program called "The Boss Said Right" that house prices will fall in the future, on the grounds that the majority of China's urban population has accounted for the majority, and the per capita housing has reached 40 square meters. ”
Boss Feng believes that urban housing is no longer in short supply. And the data he mentioned is not false.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in 2019, the per capita housing construction area of urban residents in China reached 39.8 square meters; according to the survey of the assets and liabilities of the central bank's resident households, more than 40% of urban households have two or more houses.
So, what is the current situation of family living in Shaanxi?
Shaanxi 2021 Statistical Yearbook shows that as of 2020, the per capita housing construction area of Shaanxi residents is 40.6 square meters. Among them, the per capita current housing construction area in rural areas is 42.7 square meters; the per capita current housing construction area in cities and towns is 38.7 square meters.
It is not difficult to understand that rural areas live more spaciously than cities, because rural land is relatively abundant and has a supply of homesteads.
What is the per capita housing area of urban households in Shaanxi at what level in the country? Compared with the national per capita housing area of 39.8 square meters in 2019, the per capita housing area in Shaanxi cities and towns in 2020 is about 1 square meter.
According to the survey of E-House Research Institute, in 2018, the per capita housing area of 9 provinces and towns exceeded the national average, and the per capita per capita of southern provinces such as Hunan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu and Zhejiang was the highest.
The per capita housing area of shaanxi cities and towns is higher in the northern provinces, but it is not as high as that in the southern provinces.
Why are southern towns more spacious? E-House believes that this is related to the economic level, residents' income, and the development of the real estate market. Moreover, the area of self-built houses in small and medium-sized towns in the south is also higher than that in the north.
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Nearly a decade
For the first time, the per capita living area in cities and towns has declined
In the past 20 years, domestic real estate has developed rapidly. After the housing reform in 1998, commercial housing gradually replaced the policy class of housing to become the mainstream of the market, and the per capita housing area in China's cities and towns increased from 18.7 square meters to 39.8 square meters, an increase of about 2.1 times.
From 18.1 square meters in 1998 to the present, the per capita housing area in Shaanxi cities and towns has also increased by more than 2 times.
However, compared with 2019, the per capita housing area in Shaanxi cities and towns fell by 0.1 square meters.
This is the first time since 2010 that the per capita housing area in Shaanxi cities and towns has declined in the past decade.
Some analysts believe that the decline in the per capita housing area of urban households may be related to two reasons: First, the change in the statistical sample, the per capita housing area comes from the sampling survey, and the selected household sample will have a direct impact on the survey results. The second is to investigate the impact of the base. For example, the growth rate of urban population exceeds the increase in housing.
From 2019 to 2020, the proportion of Urban Population in Shaanxi increased from 61.28% to 62.66%. At the same time, the province's residential sales area fell by 5.5 percentage points compared with 2019.
In fact, the per capita housing area of cities and towns in many areas has begun to slow down or "shrink" after years of rapid growth. For example, compared with 2018, Beijing, Fuzhou, Xuzhou, Jinan and other places, the per capita housing area in cities and towns in 2019 has declined.
Wang Jianhong, a real estate observer, said that the decline in per capita housing area in cities and towns reflects the expected changes in residents' asset allocation to a certain extent. With the diversification of housing supply, the cooling of shed reform and the rise in housing prices, the expectation of family purchases has weakened.
Relevant surveys show that 70% of Chinese wealth is a house, and the wealth of national households is deeply tied to real estate. But the high proportion of real estate also means that many family incomes are tied to the house, which is the most valuable asset in the family and the biggest liability.
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The ceiling of our per capita housing
Will it be "50 square meters"?
Last year, Huang Qifan, the former mayor of Chongqing, said: The per capita housing area of 50 square meters will be the ceiling of China's real estate industry.
Due to the continuous rise in the total number of housing in China, there was a view earlier that there are enough houses in China, and real estate is facing a saturation inflection point.
The question is, how many families can meet the current per capita housing area in various places?
On the one hand, the geographical distribution of housing in Our country is uneven. The "China Housing Stock Estimation Report" released by Ren Zeping's team mentioned that nearly 50% of the country's urban housing is in 9 provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Henan. Corresponding to the permanent population, the household ratio in Qinghai, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Heilongjiang provinces exceeds 1.15, while each household in Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing and other 5 provinces cannot share a house.
Ren Zeping's team believes that the currently announced per capita housing area in cities and towns is overestimated due to insufficient coverage of the foreign population and homeless households. Compared with major developed economies, the per capita housing area in China's cities and towns is still low.
On the other hand, the per capita housing area is not in itself sufficient to reflect the individual living conditions of urban families. Considering rentals, vacancies, etc., it is possible to underestimate the housing area owned by rich families and overestimate the housing area of poor families.
As the saying goes: the neighbor has ten million riches, and the nine neighbors are poor. On average, everyone is in the millions.
So, the real estate tax pilot is coming, and such news is coming.
In this way, the per capita housing area of 50 square meters is not only a discussion of the ceiling of the industry, but also an ideal state of housing distribution.
If the per capita housing area reaches or is close to 50 square meters, why not worry about "housing anxiety" not being eliminated?