Financial circle network October 26 news Today, pig futures in yesterday's retaliatory surge, the main contract continued to rise insufficient momentum, today once fell below the 17,000 yuan / ton mark, the final session rose slightly, closed at 17320 yuan / ton.
The main egg futures contract rose slightly, but the futures price quietly rose to a new high since July this year, closing at 4771 yuan / 500KG. In terms of spot, the average price of eggs in the main production areas last week was 4.57 yuan / catty, an increase of 9.59% over the previous week.
According to the joint monitoring of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuo Chuang Information, in the 42nd week of 2021, the weekly average of the total index of lean white strip pork ex-factory prices in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 19.81 yuan per kilogram, up 17.3% month-on-month and 46.7% year-on-year. According to mysteel agricultural product data statistics, on October 25, the average price of eggs in the main domestic production areas was 5.11 yuan / catty, up 0.39 yuan / catty from last Friday (October 22), an increase of more than 8% in three days, and up 1.04 yuan / catty from the low point of 4.07 yuan / catty after the National Day (October 10), up 25.55% in half a month.
CITIC Futures Agricultural Products Daily gives the view that the recent rapid rebound in pig prices will bring several changes to the market: 1, change expectations, pressure fence again, stage supply marginal contraction, 2, demand in advance hoarding, demand marginal increase, market supply and demand in the short term changes to aggravate price changes, but considering the basic production capacity continues to increase, the pressure bar time is limited, the stage demand is limited and overdraft future demand, and there is still a loose expectation of supply and demand in the later period. In terms of futures, considering the successive release of the current pig production capacity, the pig cycle has not yet been completed, the contract premium in the far month is higher, and the contract price may be overvalued.
The recent cooler weather is conducive to egg storage, while vegetable prices have risen and pig prices have rebounded, driving egg spot upwards. On October 25, the price of eggs in the main producing areas represented by Rizhao in Shandong Was 5.20 yuan / catty, a change of 10.64% month-on-month. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, in September 2021, there were 1.165 billion laying hens in the stock, -0.94% month-on-month and -8.56% year-on-year, and the low supply of eggs continued. The upward price of substitutes and the Singles Day Consumption Festival are both positive factors for the recent demand for eggs. In the short term, low supply and strong demand drive the futures price upwards; in the long run, it is expected that the overall inventory in the fourth quarter will remain low, and the supply at the end of the year may have a slight improvement, but the net increase in the inventory is limited.
The "body value" of some vegetables soared In the fourth quarter, the space for decline was limited
Recently, the joint rise of meat, eggs and vegetables has risen, and the retail price of many vegetables is "staggering". Affected by multiple factors such as flood conditions and seasonal factors, the "body value" of vegetables such as spinach and cucumber has risen, and vegetable prices may continue to rise in the future.
Today, Beijing held the 248th press conference on the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. At the meeting, Wang Hongcun, a first-level inspector of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, said that due to a variety of factors, the price of vegetables, especially leafy vegetables, continued to rise after the eleventh. Monitoring shows that the supply of vegetables at the wholesale end has declined recently, and due to the diversity of circulation channels in the city, the market terminal supply is still sufficient and the supply is stable. However, since October, vegetable prices have generally shown a volatile upward trend. From October 1 to 25, the average wholesale price of vegetables in Beijing rose by 39.8% month-on-month; the comprehensive retail price rose by 20.4% month-on-month. Some leafy vegetables and fresh and tender vegetables rose more sharply, some by more than 50% or more.
According to CFC agricultural research data, since June this year, the price of vegetables such as radish, cabbage, cauliflower, spinach, celery, zucchini, loofah, bitter melon, tomato and eggplant has risen by more than 100%, and the price increase of celery, zucchini and loofah has reached more than 200%.
Source: CFC Agricultural Research
The Agricultural Products Research Group of CITIC Construction Investment Futures believes that the sharp rise in meat and egg prices in the past two weeks has indeed been boosted by the upward trend of vegetables, and the continued strength of vegetable prices in the next 2-3 months will help to increase the alternative consumer demand for meat and eggs, and support the rebound of this round of meat and eggs.
This year's low temperature and energy prices brought about by the rise in heating costs will push up the overall price of vegetables, so the fourth quarter is expected to have limited room for vegetables to fall, and it is expected that vegetable prices will maintain a strong pattern in the next 3 months, and even further soar. However, in the medium term, it is still constrained by the agricultural cobweb cycle, paying special attention to the characteristics of the short cycle of vegetable growth, and the risk of accelerated decline in vegetable prices after the Spring Festival next year.
It is worth noting that the research report pointed out that it is not optimistic about the long-term rise in vegetable prices, and the current round of upward movement also indicates a sharp decline in the future in the long cycle, so vegetable prices are not enough to reverse the supply and demand fundamentals of meat and eggs themselves.