In the context of the escalation of the Sino-US semiconductor competition, from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, the territory of the United States to block Huawei has further expanded.
Recently, The Huawei Mate series "broke the change", the mate50 "discontinued" rumors are everywhere, blocked for 3 years, Huawei mobile phone business really can not hold up?
After reading the four-layer game behind the rumors, you may be able to find the answer.
01
Huawei vs Huawei
P50 delayed release, can the mate 50 still be launched smoothly?
In the past, Huawei would launch the P series and Mate series of new machines in the spring and autumn of each year (March and September), respectively, and under the chip crisis, the P50 in March this year has regretted skipping tickets. At the Hongmeng system conference in early June, the Huawei P50 rendering briefly appeared in the promotional video, but was not officially mentioned. According to people familiar with the matter, the P50 will be released later this year, and it is not yet certain which chip to use.
P50 delayed release, mate 50 delay is also a matter of certainty. But the more serious question is: Will the mate 50 still be able to launch smoothly?
Like the P50, huawei Mate50's biggest constraint is still the chip. The rumor of "breaking change" also stems from this - under the sanctions of the United States, it is difficult for Huawei to obtain support for research and development and production of a new generation of high-end chips from the supply chain, and it is difficult to go further on the basis of the 5nm chips released in 2020.
But according to the China Securities News, the rumors were broken. According to the report, the design of the Huawei Mate50 series has been completed, and Huawei also has plans to release the Mate 50 series. But due to the shortage of chip supply, Huawei has not yet decided when to start large-scale manufacturing.
Industry insiders deduce that Huawei will not give up the release of the Mate50, but the release time will be postponed as much as possible, just to wait for the chip supply to turn around.
Therefore, whether the mate 50 can be successfully launched is a game between Huawei and Huawei itself.
On the one hand, does Huawei have the ability to save itself?
Recently, an exposed Huawei HiSilicon patent document shows that Huawei has made a major breakthrough in chip research and development, using a special method to superimpose two 14nm chips to achieve the purpose of 1+1>2 - performance is comparable to 7nm chips, and power consumption is also well controlled.
If HiSilicon's chip superposition technology is feasible, Huawei may be out of trouble! Because China's 14nm technology is also about to be completely domesticated! Wen Xiaojun, director of the Electronic Information Research Institute of the China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, has confirmed that 100% domestic 28nm chips will be mass-produced this year, and 14nm chips will achieve mass production next year.
At the same time, the latest news said that Huawei's first wafer factory has been selected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and is scheduled to be put into operation in 2022. It is said that Huawei's R&D strength in Wuhan is nearly 10,000 people, and the main projects include optical communication equipment, HiSilicon chips, and autonomous laser radar. If Huawei's fab is successfully completed and put into operation, it is just around the corner to get rid of restrictions!
On the other hand, can Huawei survive until the day when the turnaround appears? Survive until American companies can't stand it... At present, chip companies such as Qualcomm and MediaTek are working hard to obtain supply licenses to restore chip supply to Huawei.
02
Huawei vs Apple Samsung
Huawei was kicked out of the "global mobile phone big three"
Samsung, Huawei, and Apple are the three giants of global mobile phones, and the three occupy more than half of the global mobile phone market.
But under U.S. sanctions, Huawei was kicked out of the "global mobile phone big three." According to the global mobile phone shipment report released by the analyst Strategy Analytics in the first quarter of 2021, Huawei's market share ranking fell out of the Top5, and Xiaomi, OV (OPPO and vivo), and Apple achieved a counter-overtake.
According to the rhythm of Huawei's previous mobile phone new product releases, the Mate 50 series was supposed to be released in September this year, and is equipped with a new generation of Huawei's self-developed 5G high-end chips to compete with the iPhone 13 that will be launched in the fall.
But now, The P50 is still on the way, and the Mate 50 is unlikely to launch in September. In contrast, Huawei's opponents have entered the "post-5nm" stage. Qualcomm, MediaTek and other manufacturers' new flagship mobile phone chips are most likely 4nm process, and Apple will also optimize and upgrade the original 5nm chips this year (A15 bionic chips).
There is no doubt that the Huawei Mate 50 series cannot be released as scheduled, giving Samsung and Apple a great opportunity to further encroach on the global high-end mobile phone market.
A few years ago, Apple and Samsung could say that there was nothing they could do in the face of the rise of Huawei's mobile phones.
In the high-end mobile phone market, Apple relies on excellent systems and perfect ecology, and Samsung relies on strong hardware and excellent screens. Before the U.S. sanctions, the two mobile phone manufacturers carved up the vast majority of overseas high-end markets outside of China. However, Huawei, with its strong research and development capabilities, continued to lead the industry in camera AI technology, and grabbed the high-end market share little by little.
Seeing that Samsung's position as the first place in the global market is about to be replaced by Huawei, but with the Huawei chip being cut off by the United States, the Huawei mobile phone of Kirin Core is "in a hurry", and Huawei has to temporarily withdraw from the competition of high-end mobile phones.
But the author believes that the pattern of the global mobile phone three giants will not be rewritten from here. Huawei is still forging ahead, whether it is to retain HiSilicon's 7,000 employees, continue to develop chips, or actively develop new business, it is accumulating more energy. I believe that as long as there is still a glimmer of opportunity, Huawei mobile phones will continue to be updated and launched!
03
Huawei vs UNITED STATES
The Mate 50 is just the tip of the iceberg of the blockade
From the Trump administration to the Biden administration, in the past 3 years, the territory of the United States to block Huawei has been expanding, and the Huawei Mate 50 is rumored to be just the tip of the iceberg of the blocking.
Chips, parts, software design, technology... All these things involving American technology, Huawei are restricted from using.
In addition, the United States has also joined forces with 7 countries to boycott Huawei products and directly block the market for Huawei.
Recently, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission voted to pass a new plan to further sanction five Chinese companies, namely Huawei, ZTE, Hytera, Hikvision and Dahua Technology, which will not only prohibit Chinese enterprise equipment from entering the US telecommunications network, but even revoke previous licenses and eliminate existing Chinese telecommunications equipment.
▲The US ban on Huawei incident
In essence, the United States suppressed Huawei even earlier. As early as 2008, when Huawei sought to acquire the US 3COM company, it was blocked by the US government, and the merger failed to pass the review of the Committee on Foreign Investment and Investment (CFIUS).
In the years that followed, Huawei's multiple equipment sales contracts and M&A offers with U.S. companies failed, all due to U.S. government intervention. The table below summarizes important failure cases.
Huawei's major commercial contracts have been blocked by the U.S. government over the past decade or so
Therefore, the US crackdown on Huawei is earlier and more brutal than we think.
However, Huawei is strong. Not only has it survived three years, but since 2019, Huawei has changed its previous low-key conservativeness, actively carried out new business, launched a diversified layout, resisted US sanctions, and promoted the rapid development of emerging technologies such as China's semiconductors, the Internet of Things, and new energy vehicles.
In terms of mobile phone business, Huawei regards maintaining existing users as its core strategy. Specific measures include: replacing the battery, back cover, and even screen, motherboard, camera and other components of Huawei mobile phones that have been sold at a low price, as well as officially launching the mobile version of the Hongmeng system.
In terms of semiconductors, since 2019, Hubble Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huawei, has continuously "dropped" in the semiconductor chip, raw materials, equipment and other industries, and has fully entered the semiconductor industry.
In terms of new energy vehicles, on June 7, 2021, Huawei spent 13.1 billion yuan to create a digital energy company, targeting the emerging energy and smart car markets.
▲List of Huawei's investment territory
In addition, Huawei is also seeking growth outside the hardware business. According to an internal Huawei memo, Ren zhengfei called on the company's employees to "dare to lead the world in software."
Ren stressed that the software field has "greater independence and autonomy." Due to external restrictions, it is difficult for Huawei to produce advanced hardware in the short term, so it is a wise choice to focus on building a software ecosystem such as Hongmeng operating system, full-scenario AI computing box Mindspore, 5G AR Engine platform and other IT products.
04
China vs UNITED STATES
Huawei is a weakness and an armor
Former U.S. President Donald Trump made a big fuss in 2018 that it could put a Chinese company out of business if the U.S. wanted to.
Huawei is one of China's soft underbelly, which has been sniped by the United States.
Huawei is currently the best technology company in the field of communications in China, from communication base stations to mobile phones to chips to 5G patents, all of which can PK with the world's first-class giants.
It is precisely because Huawei is so powerful that the United States wants to attack Huawei, incidentally the entire Chinese technology and chip industry, in order to protect the United States' technological leadership and maintain the ability to make money and harvest around the world.
But at the same time, Huawei is also China's armor.
On the one hand, Huawei has blocked most of the firepower of Chinese technology companies, the so-called "gun out of the head bird". If there is no Huawei, then China's leading semiconductor companies such as SMIC, Changdian Technology, and Gigabit Innovation may not be good.
On the other hand, in the Sino-US semiconductor competition, China is undoubtedly at a disadvantage at present. Huawei has always been one of China's important weapons, before and after sanctions.
Huawei developed the Hongmeng system and is the only company in China that can achieve a closed loop from hardware to software technology. Hongmeng not only built a Chinese-led application ecosystem, but also laid out the chessboard of the Internet of Everything in advance. With the maturity of the Hongmeng system, it will greatly accelerate the promotion and application of China's Internet of Things in the world and promote the arrival of a new era of connection between people and all things.
Although in the past two years, due to the continuous suppression of the Bottomless Bottom line in the United States, Huawei's 5G business has been affected to a certain extent, and it has been surpassed by Nokia and Ericsson in terms of global 5G orders. But throughout the entire infrastructure market, Huawei has always occupied the first position.
▶ In the communications market, Huawei has always been ahead of giants such as Ericsson and Nokia;
▶ Huawei has a total of 3147 patents in the 5G field so far, ranking first in the world;
▶ Now China has built the world's largest 5G independent networking network, and China's 5G mobile phone shipments have reached more than 72% of the same period of 5G mobile phone shipments, of which Huawei can be said to be indispensable;
▶ In addition to its own business revenue, Huawei can also charge 5G royalties to many manufacturers of 5G terminal equipment through these patents, even giants such as Samsung and Apple cannot avoid it.
In addition, Huawei's comprehensive entry into the semiconductor industry will also accelerate the strategic process of chip localization, which is conducive to the development of China's semiconductor industry.
epilogue:
With Huawei's mobile phone business suffering a heavy setback, the Sino-US semiconductor competition has become more and more intense. But when we can't bring down our opponents, we can only strengthen ourselves with all our strength.
This means that the localization of Chinese chips is the inevitable road. The U.S. crackdown on Huawei will only accelerate this process, and Huawei wants to achieve chip self-sufficiency more than anyone. There may be a brief pain in the process, but the pain will make us stronger.