21st Century Business Herald reporter Cao Enhui Shanghai report For the domestic express delivery industry, the long-troubled "price war" may be ushering in an inflection point.
Whether it is the operating data of the express delivery industry in September or the volume price of the main "grain producing areas", although the growth rate of business volume has slowed down, the year-on-year decline in the unit price of express delivery has continued to narrow and expand month-on-month, indicating that the price competition of the entire industry tends to ease.
In the view of industry insiders, although the "price war" of express delivery is still an important endogenous driving force for homogeneous competition and the industry to clear out, the competition in the express delivery industry will eventually need to return to the benign game.
It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, express delivery related policies have been intensively introduced, which has also laid the foundation for the express delivery industry to "repair" competition. In this regard, Anxin Securities analyst Sun Yan believes that "in the current strong regulatory background, it can be basically judged that the bottom of the price of the express delivery industry has appeared, and the fierce price war will come to an end, especially the head enterprise strategy has been turned, paying more attention to profits and service quality." ”
<h4>Carry on the courier "Golden Nine"</h4>
Every time the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" traditional peak season, the prosperity of the domestic logistics industry will almost usher in a more significant recovery. During this year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (September 19 to 21), the postal express industry across the country received and delivered nearly 1.8 billion express parcels, an explosive increase compared with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday before the epidemic.
In fact, due to multiple factors, the growth rate of the express delivery industry throughout September has slowed down. However, in terms of the performance of express delivery unit prices, the year-on-year decline narrowed and the momentum of continuous increase from the previous month sent a signal that the price was viciously competitive or ushered in the end.
According to the statistics of the State Post Bureau, in September this year, the business volume of express delivery service enterprises nationwide reached 9.45 billion pieces, an increase of 16.8% year-on-year; business revenue reached 92.14 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. So far, in the first nine months of this year, the business volume of express delivery service enterprises nationwide has reached 76.77 billion pieces, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year; the business revenue has reached 743.08 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year.
It is undeniable that the data of the express delivery industry in September is not satisfactory. Among them, the growth rate of off-site parts, in particular, fell from 27.6% in August to 18.4% in September, the first increase since the epidemic to be less than 20%. However, in the eyes of industry insiders, the slowdown in growth is the performance of "the low base effect brought about by the epidemic has gradually disappeared, and the growth rate of industry business volume and revenue growth has returned to normal". A brokerage analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "Considering the price increase of express delivery, the impact of power rationing on production and consumption, the growth rate of business volume in the express delivery industry has declined, but the annual business volume of more than 100 billion pieces is still a high probability event." ”
Combined with the September operating data disclosed by A-share express listed companies, the performance of several companies is still differentiated.
In terms of business volume, SF Holdings and YTO Express achieved business volume of 886 million pieces and 1.453 billion pieces respectively in September, an increase of 21.70% and 19.35% year-on-year, respectively, higher than the industry growth level; Yunda Shares and Shentong Express achieved business volume of 1.628 billion pieces and 1 billion pieces respectively, an increase of 11.28% and 16.23% year-on-year, which was lower than the industry growth level.
"The growth of industry demand has slowed down, and the business volume competition is no longer 'torn' after the suspension of the 'price war', and the growth rate of the business volume of the head express delivery company in September has been adjusted." The analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Fortunately, in terms of the unit price of express delivery, the pace of the head enterprise has basically remained the same.
In September, the single ticket revenue of the national express delivery industry was 9.75 yuan, down 4.31% year-on-year. But compared to August, it increased by 4.39% month-on-month. Among them, the unit price of express delivery announced by listed express delivery companies has risen significantly - SF's ticket unit price is 17.60 yuan, an increase of 10.14% month-on-month; Yunda's ticket unit price is 2.14 yuan, an increase of 4.39% month-on-month; the unit price of Yuantong is 2.28 yuan, an increase of 7.04% month-on-month; and the unit price of Shentong is 2.11 yuan, an increase of 7.11% month-on-month.
September is a key point in time for the price of a single ticket of a courier company to rise and fall. At the beginning of the month, domestic express delivery companies collectively announced an increase in dispatch fees; at the end of the month, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Jitu and other express delivery companies invariably issued the "Notice on Regulating the Price of Services in the Express Delivery Market" to "correct" the price orientation.
<h4>Return to healthy competition</h4>
It is worth affirming that with the slowdown of the "price war", the profitability of express delivery companies is expected to continue to be repaired.
According to the latest three quarterly reports released by YTO Express, in the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 30.542 billion yuan, an increase of 30.41% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 954 million yuan, down 31.16% year-on-year. However, in the third quarter, YTO Express achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 308 million yuan, an increase of 12.13% from the previous quarter.
In addition, SF Holdings' third-quarter performance forecast also shows that the company's non-net profit during the reporting period continued to recover sequentially, up 14% to 29% sequentially.
The continuous repair of the performance of the head express delivery enterprises is inseparable from the improvement of the current competitive environment of the express delivery industry. Since the resumption of production and work last year, domestic express delivery companies have pursued a strategy of "exchanging price for volume", and the vicious price competition has intensified, so that the ticket price of some express delivery companies has even fallen below 2 yuan.
Since April this year, local express delivery regulatory authorities have begun to control the disorderly competition in the main express delivery "grain-producing areas". On April 9, due to the low-price dumping of Best Express and Jitu Express, the Yiwu Postal Administration stopped the operation of some distribution centers in Yiwu of the two companies after repeated warnings were unsuccessful. In the Yiwu express delivery market, known as the vane of express delivery, the vicious "price war" was forcibly pressed the pause button.
In June, with the consent of the State Council, the Ministry of Transport, the State Post Bureau and other seven departments jointly issued the Opinions on Ensuring the Legitimate Rights and Interests of Courier Groups. In July, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Provisions on Administrative Penalties for Price Violations (Revised Draft for Solicitation of Comments), which included the market chaos caused by the "price war" in the express delivery industry into the scope of supervision.
In particular, on September 29, the 31st meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th People's Congress of Zhejiang Province deliberated and passed the Regulations on the Promotion of the Express Delivery Industry in Zhejiang Province, which emphasizes that express delivery business enterprises shall not provide express delivery services below the cost price without legitimate reasons; encourage e-commerce operators to provide personalized and differentiated express delivery service options for recipients in terms of express delivery business enterprises, express packages, regular delivery, delivery methods, etc.
In 2021, the intensive introduction of express delivery-related policies will exceed any period in history, and the price trend, competitive pattern and development logic of the domestic express delivery industry will be affected.
"With the consolidation of the market order, the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group, and the introduction of relevant policies such as green environmental protection in the express delivery industry and regulatory intervention, the single 'price war' model of express delivery companies can no longer be carried out." Zhao Xiaomin, deputy director of the Postal Express Special Committee of the Shanghai Communications Commission and an expert in the express delivery industry, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
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