Former German Vice Chancellor Fischer article: The world system is facing fundamental change

On June 26, the World Press Syndicate website published an article entitled "The Triple Crisis That Shook the World", written by former German Deputy Chancellor and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, and the content of the article is excerpted as follows:

As countries gradually reopen their economies, relax or even lift strict social distancing measures, the COVID-19 pandemic is entering its second phase. However, unless an effective and universally available therapy or vaccine is available, returning to normal will be a desire rather than a reality to a greater extent. Worse still, it has the potential to trigger a second wave of infections at the local and regional levels, and it could be much larger.

The triple crisis stacking leads to change

To be sure, political policymakers, health workers, scientists, and the general public have learned a lot from the first wave of experiences. Although it looks like a second wave of infections is likely, the results will be different from the first wave. The response to the second wave will rely primarily on strict but targeted regulations on social distancing, masks, telecommuting and video conferencing, rather than imposing a blanket lockdown that brings economic and social life to a standstill. However, the intensity of the next wave should also be considered, and in the most extreme cases, local or regional blockades may still be necessary.

As with the first wave of this pandemic, the next phase will involve three simultaneous crises. In addition to the spiralling of new infections and the risk of another global spread, it must be coupled with continuing economic and social consequences and escalating geopolitical disputes. The global economy is mired in a recession that cannot be quickly or easily escaped.

As if the combination of health, socioeconomic and geopolitical instability is not destabilizing enough, we cannot ignore Trump. If U.S. President Donald Trump wins a second four-year term, the current global chaos will escalate dramatically.

Given the constant crises in the world, it is no exaggeration to say that humanity is approaching a historical crossroads. The full picture of the recession is likely to not become apparent until this autumn or winter, when it is likely to constitute another shock, because the world is no longer accustomed to such drastic contractions, we are accustomed to sustained economic growth.

Will the wealthier Countries of the West and Asia be able to cope with a severe, widespread and protracted recession or even depression? Even if trillions of dollars in stimulus spending have proven to withstand a full-blown collapse, the question is what happens next.

The great reshuffle of power and wealth around the world

We should not have any illusions about what might and should happen next. The crisis triggered by the pandemic is so severe and far-reaching that it will lead to a radical redistribution of power and wealth at the global level. Societies that prepare for this outcome by accumulating the necessary energy, technology and investment will be the winners; those who do not see what is to come will find themselves losers.

After all, the world had transitioned to the digital age long before the pandemic erupted, which had far-reaching implications for the value of traditional technologies, traditional industries, and the distribution of power and wealth around the world. Moreover, an even greater global crisis has emerged. The consequences of runaway climate change will be far more severe than anything we have seen so far, and it will not be solved with vaccines.

Therefore, the COVID-19 pandemic is a real turning point. For centuries, we have relied on a political economy of self-centered sovereign nation-states, industries that run on fossil fuels, and the consumption of limited natural resources. The system is rapidly reaching its limits, making fundamental change inevitable.

The task now is to learn as much as possible from the first wave of this triple crisis. For Europe, which seems far behind economically and geopolitically, this moment represents an unexpected opportunity to address outstanding flaws. Europe has political values (democracy, the rule of law and social equality), technological knowledge and the ability to invest and is able to act decisively on its own principles and goals and those of all humankind. The only question is what the Europeans are waiting for.